While speaking at a press conference in Lausanne, Switzerland, IOC Spokesperson Mark Adams has said definitively that the Olympic Games “will go ahead”.
Adams made the comments after being asked whether the IOC had set a deadline by which to make the decision whether to postpone the Games or not.
He said, “We’ve made a decision and the decision is that the Games go ahead. On all of the proper evidence we have from the competent authorities, there is no reason for us not to plan to have the Games starting on the 24th of July”.
The comments come after Japan’s Olympic Minister, Seiko Hashimoto, announced that there is a possibility the Olympics will be postponed to later this year amid the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak.
Among confusion, European bookmakers (who will take bets on almost anything) have begun accepting wagers on whether or not the Olympics will go forward as planned.
What are the chances to Olympics will be postponed?
Well, according to this European betting website, the odds of the Olympics beginning and finishing on time (July 24th and August 9th) or events being relocated away from Tokyo are outlined below.
It’s worth noting that oddmakers will almost certainly be taking public hysteria and perceptions into account here as well as the actual probability of occurrence.
NOTE: the percentages below are implied probability stats – calculated based on the odds listed. They add up to more than 100% because of the ‘vigorish,’ which is the oddsmakers’ take of the wagers regardless of the outcome.
What is the implied probability the Olympics start on time in Tokyo as scheduled? (July 24th)
- YES – 66.7% (American = -200) (Fractional = 0.5/1) (Payout on $10 bet: $15)
- NO – 38.5% (American = +160) (Fractional = 1.6/1) (Payout on $10 bet: $26)
What is the implied probability the Olympics finish on time in Tokyo as scheduled? (August 9th)
- YES – 68.8% (American = -220) (Fractional = 0.45/1) (Payout on $10 bet: $14.55)
- NO – 37% (American = +170) (Fractional = 1.7/1) (Payout on $10 bet: $27)
What is the implied probability that events will be relocated away from Tokyo?
- YES – 16.7% (American = +500) (Fractional = 5/1) (Payout on $10 bet: $60)
- NO – 88.9% (American = -800) (Fractional = 0.125/1) (Payout on $10 bet: $11.25)
Only three summer Olympic Games have been cancelled since the modern Games began in 1896: in 1916, 1940 and 1944, the cancellations being because of World War 1 and 2.
These used to be good indicators but of late much less so . I think athletes need to take control of their mental health & leave room for cancellation possibilities.
A more interesting article would be whether a one year delay would help or harm the various countries to delay things a year. For example, I’d guess USA men would benefit – Carson Foster and Luca Urlando get a year older. Shane Casias and a few other guys who are just breaking get another year of experience. Getting a year older probably only hurts a few guys – Nathan Adrian, Matt Grevers, Ryan Lochte. Haven’t really thought it through, but it’d be an interesting thought experiment.
Good question. But I think OGs must be held this year, this summer.
Love an opportunity to hedge my sadness. Gonna hammer the no so if I’m sad at least I’m rich.
Betting that the Olympics must cancel and re schedule. We must not pass this virus if we can help it. No brainer.
Here’s the actual reality of the situation: by July, the virus is either going to already be at a pandemic scale (in which case, there’s no amount of quarantine and cancellations that will stop its spread), or it will have passed.
Overhyped much much more than needed, should be etc. Calm down please.