After a top notch showing by the American women at the 2015 Pan American Games in Toronto, a question was raised as to whether the worlds team would be able to better their relay results, and after both competitions have concluded, the Pan Am team is still on top.
It goes to show the depth in American women’s swimming right now. Both relays would have ended up fourth at the World Championships.
Heading into 2016 this means very good things for the Americans. Due to the process of picking the 2015 worlds roster in 2014, some of the newcomers such as Katie Meili and Kelsi Worrell weren’t sent to worlds.
By looking at splits, it seems that Meili and Worrell could be major players for the USA heading into the Olympic Games, although nothing is for certain.
Meili was the fastest breaststroker this year for the Americans, putting up a 1:05.64 in the heats of the 100m breaststroke at Pan Ams. Her breaststroke split was just 0.26 seconds faster than Jessica Hardy‘s.
The big difference for the two American squads comes on the backstroke. Natalie Coughlin rocked a 59.05 to leadoff the team at Pan Ams whereas Franklin struggled with a 59.81. Franklin’s personal best is faster, and when she’s at her best she’s arguably the best in the world in the event.
Freestyle also made a huge difference as Simone Manuel was much faster than Allison Schmitt. At worlds, Manuel was a 53.39 to Schmitt’s 54.08 from Pan Ams.
Pan American Games team – 3:56.53
- Natalie Coughlin – 59.05
- Katie Meili – 1:06.06
- Kelsi Worrell – 57.34
- Allison Schmitt – 54.08
World Championships team – 3:56.76
- Missy Franklin – 59.81 (+0.76)
- Jessica Hardy – 1:06.32 (+0.26)
- Kendyl Stewart – 57.24 (-0.10)
- Simone Manuel – 53.39 (-0.69)
Heading into 2016 the picture of what the American women’s medley relay team might look like is starting to take shape. If you take the fastest splits from both relays and combine them with Coughlin, Meili, Stewart, and Manuel swimming their time equals 3:55.74.
That performance would have just missed the podium by less than two tenths of a second at the World Championships.
One of the biggest factors heading into 2016 is the fact that Meili and Worrell are what can be described as untapped talent. The Pan American Games were their first major international experiences, and they’re just getting accustomed now to being one of the top swimmers in the USA.
Both Meili and Worrell swam faster individual times in their event this year than they did on the relays. With more experience, Meili could hypothetically split a 1:05-low taking into account a faster time for a flying start and her 1:05.64 flat-start best time.
Worrell could arguably be in the 56-mid range given a flying start. With what could be a combined 1.5 second drop just off the two of them alone, that would put them in contention for the gold medal heading into 2016.
With a faster split from either Coughlin or Franklin in the 58-low range the Americans would be the favorites for the gold medal at the Olympic Games.
With the 2016 Olympic Trials less than a year away, the team is not even close to being solidified. The veterans could be making huge moves and improvements in order to keep their spots on the relay, the newly established leaders could start to throw down some even more impressive times, or new talent could emerge to threaten both groups.
There is much PRESSURE on ALL of our swimmers in the USA for the upcoming year. Keep this in mind as it is wise advice:
“Missy also received sage advice from Phelps’ coach, Bob Bowman.“There are two ways you can look at outside expectations,” Bowman told her. “You can look at it as pressure. Or you can look at it as support, as these people who believe in you of doing something truly amazing.” Franklin said that she had never thought about pressure in such positive terms.
As with the men, USA’s biggest problem is the freestyle.
Backstroke – Missy’s training atmosphere has been… erratic (to say the least) the last year. Seebohm may beat the American backstroker, but probably no one else will.
Breaststroke/Butterfly – Meili and Worrell are good enough to keep us in the MR hunt, plus there are also 3-4 challengers behind each of them.
Freestyle – 53.8 was USA’s top time for the season? Australia beats that by >1 second. Heck, even Denmark and China can top that.
Schedule of next US olympic trials
http://www.usaswimming.org/DesktopDefault.aspx?TabId=2124&Alias=Rainbow&Lang=en
Generally that’s exactly the same as olympic games.
So no change compared to London for Missy Franklin unfortunately.
I hate that schedule!
She will have again the 100 back final about 15 minutes after the 200 free semifinals if she chooses to swim both events.
Impossible if she wants the gold on backstroke. It was possible when she was 17 but it looks impossible now. Especially against a Seebohm on fire.
1 gold is better than 2 bronze.
She has 10 months to wonder in which event she has the best gold chances, 200 free or 100 back, and draw… Read more »
It sucks for Missy, but she needs to seriously work on her front-end speed to be a threat in the 100 free anyway. 200 free, 100 back, 200 back, all 3 relays… that’s still a heavy load.
I would like to meet whomever added 200m semifinals to the Olympics… and slap their face. It’s pointless, unless you are NBC.
The biggest issue for the US is the free leg. The back, breast, and fly all have plenty of new faces and young talent showing great promise heading into next year. For the back maybe the best depth of all. You have 17 y/o Claire Adams going 59.5. 18 y/o Baker going 59 as well this year. Then you have Walsh going 1:00.6 on her 14th birthday. 15 y/o Ariola going 1:00 and 13 y/o Regan Smith knocking on the door. They’re young for sure so we can’t project much but if they remain on their current improvement trajectories you can’t dismiss them. Particularly Walsh who’s been dropping time like crazy. People said Ledecky was too young in 2011 and… Read more »
Don’t you worry about our anchor leg.
As Bobo kept saying, we now have the greatest female sprinters we ever had in Simone Manuel and Abbey Weitzeil. They will take care of the business.
How about Coughlin or another backstroker and Missy at free [“if Missy is Missy”].
If Missy is Missy 🙂 , she has to swim the backstroke leg. She’s the only American girl right now able to beat Seebohm and swim 58.30. And it’s much better to swim a relay ahead.
Much will depend on just where Missy’s backstroke is next year (back to sub59s or at least threatening do so) AND/OR whether Coughlin can replicate the 59flats from this year or some other US backstroker progress to anywhere near this level.
Its a tough call. At this point, you have a US anchor (Manuel) who barely overtakes anyone especially amongst the likely medallists. Arguably Missy would be a step up; there’s certainly no C1 or C2 evident in US freestyle ranks.
CHN may not get significantly better than their Kazan showing but they’re not likely to “go away”either. Whilst I don’t see AUS as being in any way bullet-proof next year, its unlikely their brs and especially their fly leg… Read more »
How do you know China is not likely going to get better? They have 3 teenagers out of the four in the winning team and why do you think they might not improve a year from now? I would think China is still going to be a heavy favorite in the mix relay.
They may improve, maybe not and there is often high turnover in the Chinese “representative” team from one year to another which can add a note of caution when discussing/predicting CHN prospects. None of their line-up are on or near world leading pace on any stroke and Lu Ying’s 57.48 is far from certain to make next year’s 100fly final let alone medal.
None of their legs in the Kazan final were spectacular or anywhere approaching record-breaking but rather they were solid and generally in line with their times in individual races with allowances for flying starts.
I don’t know about any mixed relay (LOL) but I can agree they should be going into Rio as very solid medal bets… Read more »
Thanks for sharing the video, Bobo. It was fun to see the fifteen year old Phelps at 7:38. He was so into it, he he body-painted his enthusiasm.
Both Jenny Thompson and Dara Torres trained at Stanford in 1999-2000 leading up to the Olys. They were the butterfly and freestyle legs on that relay, respectively. They were not friends (to use an understatement). When they tied for the bronze medal in the 100 free and had to crowd in together and share the podium for their third place finish, they could barely hide their displeasure. Torres didn’t get along with the other Stanford swimmers (too self-centered) and coach Richard Quick was forced to give Dara solo practices.
So, essentially, if the U.S. improves but no-one else does then they might win a medal? 😛
A year is an eternity in this sport. It would expect both the US and Australia to improve. I think the composition of the relays could be radically different for both teams next year.
Speaking of US women’s medley relay, look at that one from Sydney 2000, very dominant thanks to an amazing breaststroke leg by Megan Quann. And you had one of the best sprint freestylers to anchor at that time….
Bedford (1.01.39)
Quann (1.06.29)
Thompson (57.25)
Torres (53.37)
In that video from Japanese TV, one of the Japanese swimmers is very emotional after the race. Japan won the bronze medal and Australia won the silver.
AND WATCH AT 7.38, YOU WILL SEE A YOUNG MICHAEL PHELPS AS CHEERLEADER! 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0FcCE8v0t28
Interesting how the splits are so similar to this year’s team, with the exception of the backstroke leg!
A few observations:
1) The suits worn in this race just look ridiculous now! BJ Bedford’s suit that goes just below the knee looks like something joggers wear now. Also, the full body (including arms) looks like a wet suit. It’s interesting Megan Quann wore an aquablade instead of a fastskin. I understand why she didn’t wear legs but these days I don’t think we would ever see an Olympian in an outdated suit.
2) Three out of the four legs on the 2000 relay almost match the splits on this year’s world champs relay. While this year’s relay was lackluster, I think that speaks to how impressive those times were in 2000.
3) Dara Torres breathed… Read more »
Bobo, Awesome video! thanks for sharing it.
I’ve never seen a painted Michael Phelps before. A classic!
If Missy is Missy, she’ll easily win 100/200back and 200freee, relays I’d favour the medley relay to rise and 800fr relay is a no brainer set in stone gold for USA women. the 400fr is the weak point for team USA. missy should anchor that relay! don’t see her going faster than 53.5 flat start on that relay when C1 and c2 can each lead off in 52.5 in Rio and anchor in 51.75 #omg!!!! #australiandepth #USAheadache
I wouldn’t say easily in the 100 back with Seebohm.
And I wouldn’t say easily with Katie Ledecky and Sarah Sjöström in the 200 free. I add that both Katie and Missy will have first to qualify at olympic trials and I can tell you that Allison Schmitt, the reigning 200 free olympic champion, will defend her chances very well. Her coach Bob Bowman said she was in the same place right now as she was in 2011 before her monster 2012 year.
Missy will be stronger than ever, yes I’m sure of that. She hates losing and she will work harder than ever with Todd Schmitz to be at her best in Rio.
We don’t know… Read more »
Oh dearest Bobo,
Didn’t you keep saying that if Missy is Missy she’ll win everything?
Do not lose faith!
If Missy is Missy, she’ll win 100/200 back and 200 free!
Being fan doesn’t mean being blind.
I’m always the most realistic possible.
I think she only makes the team in the 200 back and the 4 x 200 relay. I wouldn’t trust her to do the 100s in the relays anymore. The thing hat bothers me is the excuses made about her starts and turns. She recently crushed an AR in 200 free in March .but now we are told her starts and turns aren’t the best. Huh. So then her swimming between the walls must have been really awesome but it didn’t show this summer in LC. Another thing is she is still young and she should be able to taper and break a 59 in her backstroke no problem but that relay Backstroke swim just tells me something is wrong..… Read more »
Remember “this Todd guy” helped make her the champion and world record holder that she was! Let’s give him, and their relationship, some credit! She obviously needs more backstroke training (than what she probably did at Cal), and we have to hope her back problems don’t reoccur. I don’t think her height is a good excuse for lackluster start or underwaters, Look at how many super-tall male backstrokers there are with good starts. I have faith in Missy. She will come back strong! I have been worried about this medley relay ever since we all thought Dana was retired for good. It will be a huge challenge to win this one.
Whilst I agree that these are her only “sure fire” selections; she has to be a very strong favourite for one of the 100bk berths. Coughlin throwing down a couple of 59flat-lows does bring in a prospective clear candidate for one but until another US female backstroker can start putting out consistent 59lows, Franklin has to be favoured to grab one of these places.
Likewise, USA has a ruck of 53 high swimmers but no-one in recent times who’s a consistent sub53.5 let alone sub53. Whilst I have doubts Franklin is ever likely to join the ranks of the Campbells & Sjostrom; she may currently be your best 100swimmer as Manuel is really only a 53high at this point … Read more »