2024 Olympics Previews: Great Britain Aims For Gold and World Record In Men’s 4×200 Free Relay

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
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Note: For our top nations’ aggregate times below, the first column (Season-Best) is the sum of each leg’s best flat-start time during the qualifying period, not factoring relay starts. The second column is a little more predictive, pulling that athlete’s best time or split (that we could find) during the qualifying period. If the athlete’s best is from a flat start, we’ve used that over their fastest relay split. The presumptive leadoff swimmer of each relay is listed first with their flat-start best, followed by three with relay splits unless otherwise noted.

By The Numbers — Men’s 4×200 Freestyle Relay

• World Record: 6:58.55 — United States (M. Phelps, R. Berens, D. Walters, R. Lochte) (2009)
• World Junior Record: 7:08.37 — United States (J. Magahey, L. Urlando, J. Mitchell, C. Foster) (2019)
• Olympic Record: 6:58.56 — United States (M. Phelps, R. Lochte, R. Berens, P. Vanderkaay) (2008)
• 2020 Olympic Champion: Great Britain (T. Dean, J. Guy, M. Richards, D. Scott) — 6:58.58

This relay falls on day 4 of the Olympic schedule. Like three years ago, it’s on the same day as the men’s 100 freestyle semifinals. That creates a double for many swimmers, including Matt Richards, Pan Zhanle, Hwang Sun-woo, and Chris Guiliano, to name a few.

July 30 Finals Schedule

*Men’s events in bold

• Men’s 100 freestyle semifinals
• Men’s 200 butterfly semifinals
• Women’s 100 backstroke final
• Men’s 800 freestyle final
• Women’s 100 freestyle semifinals
• Men’s 200 breaststroke semifinals 
• Men’s 4×200 freestyle relay final

Those semifinals start the session and the relay ends it and there’s been a reasonable amount of time for swimmers to pull off the double. But the revamped Paris schedule has produced another conflict: the men’s 800 freestyle is in the middle of the session. While it’s a much less common conflict, it creates an issue for Elijah Winnington, Kim Woo-min, and Guilherme Costa should they reach the 800 freestyle final. All three are among their country’s top four in the 200 freestyle, so a hard decision could loom for these athletes and their nation’s coaches.

But one thing much less in doubt is the favorites in this relay as Great Britain looks to run it back as Olympic champions in the men’s 4×200 freestyle relay–this time in world record fashion.

The Window Is Still Open

In Tokyo, the team of Tom Dean, Matt Richards, James Guy, and Duncan Scott (updated) earned Great Britain’s first medal in this event since 1908. They blazed ahead of the field for a commanding win in 6:58.58, just .02 seconds off the world record but destroying the European record, which was also a super-suited mark. The same quartet returns for Paris looking to improve on their gold medal with another gold medal and the world record.

While the United States is closing the gap, Great Britain has also improved. In addition to boasting the Tokyo 200 freestyle gold and silver medalists they also have Richards, the 2023 world champion. 21-year-old Richards’ breakout is incredible news for them. He split a strong 1:45.01 on this relay in Tokyo and arrived in Paris as a world champion and Great Britain’s fastest 200 freestyler in the qualification window (1:44.30). Richards has the 100 freestyle semifinal at the start of this session but Scott scratched so he’ll be fully focused on this relay.

Richards’ rapid improvement gives the Brits many options for their relay lineup. Lead-off duties will likely fall to either Richards or Scott. Dean split 1:43.84 in Fukuoka, backing up his 1:43.53 split from the 2022 Worlds. Scott split 1:43.45 as the anchor in Tokyo, so if he isn’t the lead-off, that’s likely where he’ll swim.

But whatever order they go with, this quartet is the clear favorite. They have the deepest lineup, which was so strong that Dean–the defending Olympic champion–missed out on an individual 200-free slot. Their strength is also clear from their fastest start add-up which at 6:58.06, is well under the long-standing world record.

Looking For Olympic Redemption

In Tokyo, the United States made history in this relay. With their 4th place finish, it marked the first time in the modern history of the Games, other than the boycotted 1980 Olympics in Moscow, that the United States failed to reach the podium in a relay.

The American 200 freestylers bounced back quickly, storming to gold at the 2022 World Championships. They reached the podium again at the 2023 and 2024 World Championships, showing that the 4th place finish in Tokyo was a blip rather than the norm. It helps that they’ve found their next great hope in the 200 freestyle. Luke Hobson threw down a 1:44.87 during the 2023 Worlds semifinals, making him the 4th fastest American man in history, just behind Kieran Smith‘s 1:44.74 in Tokyo.

Carson Foster scratched this race at the U.S. Olympic Trials but made an effective case to be on this relay back in Doha, when he split 1:43.90, helping the team to bronze. That split, flanked by Hobson’s 1:44.87 flat start and Smith’s 1:44.47 does a lot of work to close the gap to the Brits on paper. The Americans’ fastest split add-up in 6:58.66, well under their 7:00.24 winning time from Budapest and just off Great Britain’s gold-medal time from Tokyo, as well as the world record.

Foster will surely be on this relay. The question is who gets left off? We took Drew Kibler off the add-up relay because his best in the qualifying period is slower than Chris Guiliano‘s. But Guiliano has a busy schedule in Paris, not to mention the 100 free semifinal double. Kibler’s lifetime best in this event is a 1:45.01 and a fresh, on-form Kibler could help the Americans launch a challenge for gold.

Battle For Bronze

South Korea

At the 2024 World Championships, South Korea was in last place after the first leg of this relay. But the 2023 Asian Games champions moved into third by the halfway point, which they maintained until Hwang Sun-woo threw down a field-best 1:43.76 split to move them into second. The quartet of Hwang, Lee Ho-joon, Kim Woo-min, and Yang Jae-hoon combined for a final time of 7:01.94, taking silver and finally making their way onto the Worlds podium in this relay.

Can they run it back in Paris? On paper, yes. They have the third fastest split add-up, checking in at 7:00.99, nearly a second faster than their silver medal-winning time from February. Yang wasn’t at his 1:46.83 best at the 2024 Worlds but if he is near that time or better, this relay’s potential rises significantly. They still have a ways to go before catching the top two teams but could quickly separate themselves from the teams they will likely be battling for bronze.

One thing to note is that they are one of the squads with two potential doubles. Hwang will likely race the men’s 100 free semifinals and Kim could feature in the 800 freestyle final. After an early 2024 breakout, Kim is entered in the 200/400/800/1500 freestyle, so he may scratch events as the meet goes on. And it’s easy to see him prioritizing a podium finish in this relay, which is achievable for this quartet.

China

Checking in with a 7:01.25 fastest split add-up, China should be in the mix for the bronze medal in Paris. They’ll likely go with the same team that won gold at the 2024 World Championships: Pan, Wang Haoyu, Ji Xinjie, and Zhang Zhanshuo.

Chinese coaches went Ji, Wang, Pan, and Zhang in Doha so that’s the order we’ve put them in for the fastest split add-up, though they could make changes. While Pan owns their fastest flat start, they get the most out of him on a relay start–evidenced by his 1:43.90 split. But they could lead off with Wang, who has the fastest flat start in the qualification period after Pan with a 1:45.71.

In Doha, this group won gold in 7:01.94, with Zhang holding off the charging Hwang. Neither that time nor the 7:01.25 add-up will be enough to get into the fight for a higher step on the podium, but on paper, they are squarely in the hunt with South Korea and Australia for bronze. Another sub-1:45 relay split might make them feel more comfortable about their podium potential, but expect them to be in the heart of the action.

Australia

Update: Thanks to commenter Troy who pointed out Kai Taylor‘s 1:44.56 from the Fukuoka heats. Australia’s new predictive time is 7:00.14, a change reflected here and in the final table. 

Australia can get rid of Winnington’s potential 800 free/4×200 freestyle relay double quite easily. Putting Chalmers on this relay, which he often swims, fixes the problem with little fanfare, especially because Winnington is Australia’s fourth-fastest flat-start in the qualification window. We’re used to seeing Chalmers on anchor duty but he went second on this relay at the Tokyo Olympics and the 2023 World Championships. Australia will count on him producing another 1:45-low split, which he did in Tokyo (1:45.35) and Fukuoka (1:45.19), helping the team to bronze on both occasions.

Maximilian Giuliani‘s rise is a huge boost for this relay squad. He’s the fastest Australian during the qualification period after putting up a lifetime best of 1:44.79 in December 2023. That makes him the second-fastest Australian in the event’s history, behind only Ian Thorpe (1:44.06).

Despite Giuliani’s emergence and the fact that their 7:00.14 fastest-split add-up is faster than their time from Fukuoka, 7:00.14 to 7:02.13, the Australians have a problem. On paper, they are competitive with South Korea and China but they lack a sub-1:44 relay split. Kai Taylor was 1:44.56 in the Fukuoka heats, making him their current strongest relay leg. While they are consistent with Chalmers and Thomas Neill‘s splits in the 1:45 range, that steadiness may not be enough when the other countries in the top five all have a swimmer who’s clocked a sub-1:43 split. Plus, Great Britain, the U.S., and South Korea can all pair that with at least one sub-1:45 split.

Unless they get a huge swim at the right moment–like Taylor putting up a 1:44 split in the final–the Australians’ strategy will be about their consistency and hoping that at least one of the other top four teams misfires.

Finals Factors

China has the fifth-best flat-start add-up at 7:02.50. After that, there’s a big jump to Italy, the next-best team at 7:04.57. Then, there’s another gap of approximately a half-second to Japan (7:05.14) which is just ahead of Germany (7:05.25). Brazil is also lurking with a 7:06.63.

• Italy: Alessandro Ragaini, Filippo Megli, Marco De Tullio, and Carlos D’Ambrosio are Italy’s four fastest 200 freestylers during the qualification period. 17-year-old Ragiani qualified for the individual event, crushing a 1:45.83 lifetime best and Italian junior record. The team will rely on him and Megli, the two sub-1:46 flat starts, to do the heavy work on this relay. Between the top four and their two alternates, this is a young relay. Only Megli and De Tullio have been to an Olympic Games before, but their predictive add-up of 7:03.60 suggests they have room to improve.
• Japan: Katsuhiro Matsumoto, Hidenari Mano, Konosuke Yanagimoto, and Tatsuya Murasa combine for a 7:05.14 flat-start add-up. Matsumoto, the Japanese 200 freestyle record holder, leads this relay after swimming 1:44.98 this qualification period. He’s got a shot at the 200 free individual final and he’ll be the big piece for this relay as none of the other three have broken 1:46 in the qualification window.
• Germany: The Germans have an intriguing front half of their relay. Lukas Märtens owns a 1:44.14 flat start so if they make the final, expect Germany to be right at the front of the race at the start. Rafael Miroslaw‘s 1:45.83 is a solid follow-up. If they want to get under 7:05, they’ll need Josha Salchow and Timo Sorgius to dip under 1:47.
• Brazil: With three 1:46 points from Guilherme Costa, Tokyo bronze medalist Fernando Scheffer, and Murilo Sartori, Brazil has a solid chance to reach the final. They’re another squad that could be impacted by the 800 freestyle’s move though as Costa–their fastest swimmer in the qualifying period at 1:46.06–could feature in that.

The Verdict

The top five contenders in this race–Great Britain, the U.S., South Korea, China, and Australia–all have the fastest split add-ups under 7:02. A 7:01 isn’t what it used to be. The United States won’t let Great Britain get too far away, but we’ve still got the Brits repeating as Olympic champions. Behind the United States, there should be a thrilling race for bronze between South Korea, China, and Australia.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Dark Horse: France — The final is going to break up into multiple different races. There’s Great Britain and the fight for the world record. The United States will try to challenge the Brits. South Korea, China, and Australia will battle it out for bronze. Then, there’s everyone else; teams chasing national records and jostling for the highest position they can achieve in the final. France could sneak into the race happening behind the medal chase.

They are seeded 6th with an entry time of 7:03.86 from the 2023 Worlds when they finished 4th. A time like that would put them right there with the Italians but they are dark horses for one reason: we’re not sure if Leon Marchand will swim this. Marchand anchored that relay in 1:44.89, pulling the French from 6th to 4th. Marchand is scheduled to have the 200 fly/200 breast semifinals double this session. If he swims both, he’ll skip this relay, which puts the French back to fighting for a spot in the final.