2024 Olympic Previews: Finke the Favorite in 1500 FR, But Is The World Record As Reachable?

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
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BY THE NUMBERS — MEN’S 1500 Freestyle

• World Record: 14:31.02 — Sun Yang, China (2012)
• World Junior Record: 14:41.89 — Kuzey Tuncelli, Turkey (2024)
• Olympic Record: 14:31.02 — Sun Yang, China (2012)
• 2020 Olympic Champion: Bobby Finke, United States — 14:39.65

No matter who you’re backing in the men’s 1500 freestyle, we should all agree that the winning time will be much faster than the 14:39.65 Bobby Finke swam for Olympic gold in Tokyo. That’s not a knock on Finke’s swim, it’s just a sign of how far this event has come in the last three years. Seven of the performers on the all-time top ten list swam their mark after the Tokyo Games, five of them in the past 16 months alone.

The elephant in the room, of course, is that Ahmed Hafnaoui, the second-fastest swimmer in history, will not be in the race. At the 2023 World Championships, he and Finke went stroke for stroke over the back part of an electric 1500 freestyle final. At the touch, Hafnaoui got the better of Finke by five-hundredths. Hafnaoui won in 14:31.54, Finke took silver in 14:31.59 and the two exchanged caps in the water as they celebrated moving up to #2 and #3 all-time.

The Favourite

Hafnaoui’s absence leaves the door wide open for Finke to defend his Olympic gold. He’s the only man in the race who has broken 14:32 and has a 1.21 second gap to the next fastest in the field, Gregorio Paltrinieri (14:32.80).

Finke set a U.S. Open record at the U.S. Olympic Trials, speeding ahead of the field to win the event comfortably in 14:40.38. It’s the second year in a row that Finke has set a U.S. Open record at the U.S. qualifying meet. He did the same at the 2023 U.S. Nationals, swimming a 14:42.81 before his historic swim in Fukuoka.

The magic of Hafnaoui and Finke’s performances is that they made the long-standing world record look even more vulnerable than Paltrinieri in 2022. After that final in Fukuoka, many thought Sun Yang’s mark would go down in Paris. But is that still possible without Hafnaoui in the field? After the race, both

After the race, both Hafnaoui and Finke talked about what a large role the other played in their performance. “[Hafnaoui] pushed me faster than I thought I could go,” said Finke. Losing Hafnoaui doesn’t just mean we’ve lost a swimmer who realistically could break that world record but Finke has lost the person best-suited to pushing him to that record.

We know Finke best as the comeback king, someone who lurks behind the front of the race and storms ahead in the closing meters for the win. If you were to count how many meters Finke leads an international race, it wouldn’t be very many. Even in the Fukuoka final, he only led at the 1000m, 1050m, and 1150m turns. Otherwise, he was closely shadowing Hafnaoui.

So on paper, the Paris 1500 freestyle final presents a new challenge for Finke. The safe option for a repeat Olympic gold would be to mark the other finalists closely and burst ahead at the end of the race. But if Finke wants the world record too, then he may need to launch earlier than normal and lead solo for a long time.

The Irishman

That said, several swimmers in this field could join Finke in the fight with the world record line. One is Daniel Wiffen, who has made no secret of his wish to break the world record.

Daniel Wiffen, Photo by Patrick B. Kraemer / MAGICPBK

Wiffen broke out in the spring of 2023, firing off a 14:34.91 (then the 5th fastest in history) at the Stockholm Open as the highlight of several big swims that moved him into the medal conversation. His claim that to break the world record, “[he] just needs to swim it again,” proved incorrect, but he’s gotten even closer since that swim.

At the 2024 World Championships, Wiffen rebounded from frustrating 4th place in the 800/1500 freestyles to win double gold in the men’s distance races. Wiffen was out faster at the 1000m mark (9:43.41) than Finke (9:43.34) who led the 2023 at that point. He fell off the 14:31 pace in the final 500 meters. Still, he held on and moved back up to 5th fastest all-time with a 14:34.07, lowering his Irish record by .84 seconds.

To this point in his career, Wiffen has done his best swims when he’s unchallenged and can build a huge gap to the rest of the field. That certainly won’t be the state of affairs in Paris. Even if Wiffen chooses to take the race out quickly, there’s a strong chance he’ll have some company.

He’s the only man to break 14:40 so far this season and his exploits in the last year make him a strong contender for the Olympic podium—a very different position from where he was in Tokyo, where he finished 9th. Wiffen presents with a calm confidence, which he’ll need to rely on in a stacked final.

Catch Me If You Can

At the 2022 World Championships, Paltrinieri set a challenge to the rest of the field by turning on the jets early in lane 1. Well ahead of the world record pace for the majority of the race, Paltrinieri didn’t falter. Though he couldn’t withstand the closing speed of the world record line, Paltrinieri held on to set a European record 14:32.80 and become the then second-fastest performer in history (he’s now 4th).

The performance helped Paltrinieri rebound from a disappointing Tokyo Games, where he finished off the podium after winning in 2016. He also showed that it was possible to beat Finke’s closing speed, which none of the international swimmers had been able to do to that point.

Sam Short, photo credit Marcus Chen Photography

Paltrinieri had a rough go at the 2023 World Championships after missing weeks of training due to physical problems. He missed the final for the 800 freestyle after which he scratched the 1500 free and returned to Italy to recover.

His 2023-24 season has been a mixed bag; he was 14:41.38 in November 2023 which puts him 3rd in the world this season. But in Doha, he went 14:55.19 in prelims and missed the final by .21 seconds in 9th place. Paltrinieri prefers the outside lanes in the final, which often results in a risky morning strategy that can backfire. But if he’s back in the Paris final and on form he should be in the fight for the medals.

In his stead, it was Sam Short who served as the rabbit in the Fukuoka final. A 400/800/1500 freestyler, Short is most at home in the 800 freestyle. He bravely played his best card, his opening speed, trying to make the race hard for everyone who did not want to gold to disappear from view. His effort was not as successful as Paltrinieri’s, Hafnaoui and Finke went by Short but the Australian held on for bronze in a lifetime best 14:37.28, capping off a breakthrough meet with a third podium finish. He’s now tied for 9th on the all-time performers list.

Short’s illness at the Australian Olympic Trials forced him to withdraw from the 1500 free. But no one else hit the Olympic Qualifying Time, which means that Short can and will swim this race in Paris. Because of his withdrawal, his season-best is a deceptive 15:03.25 from the Australian Open. If veterans and Olympic medallists like Paltrinieri and Florian Wellbrock are back at their best, Short may have trouble holding on to the podium but either way, he should be involved in the race right from the start as it’s his best strategy for retaining a podium position in his third best event.

Do Revenge?

Is it too late for Florian Wellbrock and Mykhailo Romanchuk to take their revenge from the Tokyo Games and claim 1500 free Olympic gold? With 100 meters to go at the 2021 Olympics the two, who are the remaining swimmers in the field on the top ten list, looked set to duke it out for gold until Finke caught them for the second time that meet and swam away for gold.

Florian Wellbrock and Gregorio Paltrinieri,
Courtesy of Rafael Domeyko

After bronze at the Olympics and 2022 Worlds, Wellbrock looked ready for gold at the 2023 World Championships. One week after Wiffen’s in-season swim, the German responded at the 2023 Berlin Open, bettering Wiffen’s time by two hundredths in 14:34.89, which now ranks him 7th all-time. He’d been on the event’s podium at every meet he’d raced since 2018. He arrived at the pool swimming portion of the 2023 Worlds as the newly crowned world champion in both the 5k and 10k open water. But Wellbrock struggled in the pool, missing the final in both the 800 and 1500 freestyle. In the latter, he finished well off the finals qualifying pace, touching in 15:10.33 for 20th.

He’s already bettered that this season, swimming 14:42.28 at the German Championships, good for 5th fastest this season. Also playing to Wellbrock’s advantage is that open water swimming is after pool swimming at these Games. Additionally, he’s not racing the 800 freestyle so he’ll be all in on this event in the pool as he tries to get back on the podium.

Romanchuk is sitting 8th on the all-time list thanks for his 14:36.10 performance from the 2022 European Championships. He pulled that off after fading to fifth at the 2022 Worlds, posting his first personal best in the event in four years.

It’s going to be a lot of work for him to defend his Olympic bronze in this race. He hasn’t broken 14:40 since that swim and owns a season-best of 14:47.54 from a 5th-place finish in Doha. Of the two, the 14:40 stat is the one to pay attention to as it’s going to take well under that to make the podium.

The Cutting Edge

16-year-old Kuzey Tuncelli announced himself as the potential “next big thing” in this race at European Juniors. Tuncelli obliterated the world junior record by 4.20 seconds, touching in 14:41.89. The swim took more than 12 seconds off his Turkish record and previous lifetime best of 14:54.16, which he set in July 2023.

Kuzey Tuncelli, Courtesy of European Aquatics

The swim capped off an excellent season for him when he took 8th at the 2024 Worlds and won the 2024 European title less than two weeks earlier. Now, he’ll aim to translate that success to Paris in his Olympic debut. He’s 4th fastest in the world this season, putting him in a strong position on paper for the final. It would be a huge ask for him to move up into the medal conversation, making the final would be a huge accomplishment for the teen: it would give him some experience racing against the best and a chance to lower his new world junior record.

Another swimmer putting up a late bid to be put in the mix for the final is Ahmed Jaouadi. The Tunisian teen had a strong spring, putting up lifetime bests in the 400/800/1500 free that provided him with the base to potentially play upset to a more established swimmer in those events. At the French Elite Championships, Jaouadi beat David Aubry and Damien Joly with a 14:48.69. That marked his first sub-15 minute effort as his previous best stood at 15:10.11 from March.

Jaouadi ranks 11th this season and is a long way off from the lifetime bests of the big favorites in this race. But his dramatic improvement curve means that he can’t be ignored here as he aims to continue Tunisia’s tradition of excellence in men’s distance.

The Holdovers

Other recent Olympic and Worlds finalists “holding over” and returning to the field are Tokyo finalist Daniel Jervis, Budapest finalist Joly, Fukuoka finalist Aubry, and Doha finalists David Betlehem, Sven Schwarz, and Fei Liwei.

Daniel Jervis, courtesy of Fabio Cetti

Jervis and Aubry have featured in multiple finalists in the last three years and it’s Aubry who leads this group so far this season, thanks to his 14:44.85 performance for bronze in Doha. That swim put Aubry back on the Worlds podium for the first time since 2019 when he won bronze in the 800 freestyle.

His lifetime best in this event also comes from that meet, where he went 14:44.72 which he just missed in Doha. Aubry’s two swims in Doha were the second and third fastest of his career—a promising sign that he’ll be looking to build into a finals berth. A Tokyo and Budapest finalist, Jervis has been close to his long-standing lifetime best this season too. At the British Olympic Trials, he made the Olympic team with a 14:47.94, coming 1.43 seconds from his 2019 PB.

Betlehem took 5th in Doha, ahead of Schwarz (6th) and Fei (8th) in a lifetime best 14:46.44 that ranks him 7th in the world this season. However, it’s Schwarz who holds the fastest personal best of this whole group with the 14:43.53 he swam at the LEN U23 European Championships last summer. He’s been 14:47.89 this season; a good morning swim could propel him into the final at his first Olympic Games and give Germany two up in the final. Fei sits back in the season rankings with a 14:49.30 but holds a lifetime best of 14:46.59, right in Betlehem’s ballpark.

The Verdict

Finke’s 14:31, combined with his effort at the U.S. Olympic Trials is too hard to ignore: we’re taking him to repeat as the Olympic champion. The question of the world record lingers and will come down to how the finalists’ competing strategies play out against each other. Finke will face challenges from the likes of Wiffen and Short as well as Paltrinieri and Wellbrock if they are back at their best.

We’re optimistic and think that both Paltrinieri and Wellbrock will be back in the final though if 2023 Worlds taught us anything, it’s that in a field this stacked, there’s likely to be at least one surprising name missing out on the final. Nevertheless, we’ve taken Paltrinieri to get back on the podium and take bronze behind Wiffen’s silver.

A slow prelims opens the door for swimmers like Schwarz, Betlehem, Aubry, Jervis, and Fei to upset swimmers ranked in the all-time top ten and make their mark in Paris. Of course, there could be surprises in the final as well and provided they get there, those fireworks are most likely to come from teenagers Tuncelli and Jaouadi, who have already made dramatic drops this season.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Dark Horse: Zalan Sarkany (Hungary)  — Given the 14:54.29 it took to make the 2023 final and the amount of swims in the high 14:40s we’ve already seen this season, to be a true dark horse in this field you need a best time over 14:50. Enter Zalan Sarkany, Hungary’s second entrant in this event who holds a 14:53.19 PB from December 2023. Switching between training at home in Hungary and at Arizona State both this season and last, Sarkany’s also been going back and forth from meters to yards. Now an NCAA champion in the 1650-yard freestyle, Sarkany could make the drop necessary to get involved in the final conversation.