While Missy Franklin has proven to be the best backstroker in the world since 20, she isn’t necessarily untouchable heading into Barcelona (though she will certainly be the favorite).  Teammate Elizabeth Pelton pushed Franklin at World Championship Trials, and a pair of experienced Aussies who have made noise on the international stage will do everything in their power to give Franklin a run for her money.
THE FIELD:
The heavy favorite is defending World and Olympic champion Missy Franklin of the United States.  The Colorado teenager has been absolutely dominant in this event, easily posting the top time in the world over each of the last three years.  Her world record swim in London last summer (2:04.06) is 1.8 seconds quicker than the next best textile time (from Anastasia Zueva of Russia, who isn’t swimming the 200 back in Barcelona).  Though it would be easy for Franklin to become complacent with her results from last summer and fall back a step as we’ve seen with a  majority of the top Team USA swimmers after the Olympic year, Franklin has stayed the course (it’s probably easier to maintain a routine when you’re still in high school).  She may not beat her world record performance from a year ago, but in general, she seems to only be getting better as a swimmer.  A scary thought for the rest of the world as she heads to Berkeley this fall to join arguably the best backstroke training group in the world.
Fellow Cal Bear and Team USA swimmer Elizabeth Pelton could be the closest challenger.  Franklin’s future teammate has bounced back from a heartbreaking Olympic Trials (she finished third in the 200 back and 200 IM) in a big way, smashing the American record in the short course yards 200 back at NCAA’s, and becoming the fourth fastest textile performer of all time last month.  Her 2:06.29 from World Championship Trials was also a best time by 1.2 seconds, just 0.61 behind Franklin, good for second in the world this year.  By challenging Franklin at Trials, Pelton proved she has reemerged as the medal contender we thought she would be after her third-ranked swim back at 2010 Pan Pacs.
The two Americans will face stiff challenges from a pair of Aussies, Belinda Hocking and Meagan Nay.  Hocking had a disappointing performance in the 200 back last summer in London, failing to make the championship final after posting the fourth fastest time in 2012 at Australian Trials. Hocking is once again near the top of the ranks, however, and will look to repeat her 2011 Worlds performance, where earned a silver medal and became the second fastest textile swimmer in history (behind Franklin).  Nay has been juuuuust out of medal contention on the world stage each of the last two years, touching sixth in 2011 and fifth in 2012.  With Elizabeth Beisel, Anastasia Zueva, and Elizabeth Simmonds out of the field (more on them in a moment), Nay is actually the second-highest returner from the Olympic field, and the third fastest swimmer overall.
There are a number of past medalists and historically top-ranked swimmers not competing in this event in Barcelona, including last summer’s silver and bronze medalists.  Elizabeth Beisel, who won bronze in London, was beaten by Pelton at U.S. Trials, locking her out of this event.  Anastasia Zueva of Russia posted the second best textile performance ever to win silver last summer, but after taking time off and then breaking her foot earlier this season, she has elected to focus solely on the 100 back.  Elizabeth Simmonds, who has been in the top five of the world rankings each of the last three years, was left off the British team entirely after a subpar 2013 switching training programs (she won this at British Trials, but failed to break 2:10).  Japan’s Aya Terakawa has dropped the 200 backstroke from her program in 2013, despite being ranked in the world’s top 5 leading into the Olympic Games.
If you skipped over the text, went straight to the picks, and were left scratching your head at the inclusion of Federica Pellegrini… no, that’s not a misprint. Â The Italian superstar has elected to give up the 200 and 400 freestyle events for this season (despite holding the world record in both of them) to focus on the backstrokes, and has quickly emerged as a medal contender. Â She clocked a lifetime best 2:08.05 at Italian Nationals in mid-April, one of the top five times in the world at that point (she currently sits sixth). Â With her background as a 400 freestyler, expect Pellegrini to have some pretty quick closing speed.
Note: Pellegrini will return her focus to the mid-distance frees this coming fall.
Speaking of closing speed, we have to mention Ye Shiwen of China.  The current 400 IM world record holder and two-time Olympic gold medalist known for her wicked freestyle legs will certainly bring plenty to the table in Barcelona.  Ye swam a lifetime best by 2+ seconds to win Chinese Nationals in 2:09.12, good for fourth in the world (she now sits ninth).  She has been known to rise to the occasion, and if Ye is anywhere near the field, she could storm home and sneak away with a medal.
We should also see Sinead Russell, a returning Olympic finalist and Canadian record holder, make her way through semifinals.  Russell was the third fastest 200 backstroker in the country as a freshman at the University of Florida this past short course season, and while she hasn’t put up anything particularly special in the long course pool, expect her to swim considerably faster on 100% rest in Barcelona.
THE PICKS:
1. Â Missy Franklin, United States – 2:04.06
2. Elizabeth Pelton, United States – 2:06.29
3. Belinda Hocking, Australia – 2:06.06
4. Meagan Nay, Australia – 2:07.16
5. Federica Pellegrini, Italy – 2:08.05
6. Ye Shiwen, China – 2:09.12
7. Sinead Russell, Canada – 2:08.04
8. Daria Ustinova, Russia – 2:08.39
even though franklin should win, pelton wasn’t too far behind at the trials. however trials and worlds can be totally different meets sometimes.
Pelton’s 2:06 is FAR behind Franklin’s 2:04.
What will the reaction be if/when Ye Shiwen wins the 200 back? 😉
Ye swims the 200 back?
She did at Nationals, though at the time she said it was for “training purposes” because she wasn’t in as good of shape as she wanted to be.
Impossible!
Sorry…just saw your winky face. LOL If she did she would swim the last 100 faster than Ryan Lochte in HIS 200 backstroke race.
Usa all the way for the 2 best medals …….nothing to add here .
go CAL Bears!!!
Sinead Russell didn’t actually qualify for the Canadian team for Barcelona in the 200 back: she finished third at trials. Is she swimming the event based on the fact that the second place finisher didn’t meet the qualifying time for Worlds?
Unrelated, but YES! http://www.swimvortex.com/good-news-on-breaststroke-and-backstroke/
Although it doesn’t say if they are going to introduce underwater cameras, I hope so otherwise we will still be in a mess, just without the even worse fix.
Be careful! You advertise the site rival of swimswam! 🙂
I wouldn’t sweat it, Bobo – Swimswam & Swimvortex have IMO differentiated themselves sufficiently to provide complementary services to their intended market 🙂
They are almost friendly rivals it seems – still recall Craig Lord making a guest appearance on Swimswam last year @ the Omaha trials:
http://swimswam.com/day-7-finals-recap-presented-by-engine/
Same can’t probably be said of another US-based publication that used to be the market leader for decades – until they decided last year to require a paid subscription in order to view their articles online after a meager monthly viewing quota…
Opinions expressed here are purely my personal opinion, that of a regular swim fan who has no affiliations whatsoever with any of the aforementioned organizations 😉
I had to subscribe and paid monthly fees just because they introduced the policy before the Olympics!
Just wanted to add that I’m quite impressed by Bobo’s predictive skills – at least with regards to Missy’s WR time for this event in London, even if his continuing lobby for Missy to drop her free events didn’t quite come true 😀
Rereading the comments from that Days 7 Recap that I posted above, here’s what our friend from Gaul had written:
“Missy Franklin has won around 2.06 like I had predicted. She wasn’t fully tapered for these trials. Be patient for the world record. If she has a smart schedule with at least the 200 free out of it she will not be too much tired and she’ll destroy the world record. I see her in 2.04.10… Read more »
Thank you for these nice remarks but please, don’t remind me of all the bad predictions I have also made! You would need at least 2 hours to compile them! 🙂
Not much disagreement around on this one. It’s racing against time. If Missy can learn thing or two from Ms Pelton or Bootsma about details like starts and turns, she may broke the WR and, the other way round, if Missy can teach Ms Pelton a thing or two about closing speed, Pelton can be pretty comfy with her silver.
1) Melissa Franklin (USA)
2) Elizabeth Pelton (USA)
3) Belinda Hocking (AUS)
Maybe a word about Pellegrini too. Training a couple of times per week is just not enough, no matter how talented you’re and Grande Federica is talented indeed. When it comes to results, her prospects would have been just as good in freestyle as in backstroke.… Read more »
Barring some unforeseen catastrophe, this has got to be the most nailed-on event in the whole programme (although we learned a bit about foregone conclusions in London). Can’t see past Missy and Pelton 1-2, but agree with Bobo that 3rd could be a bit more interesting, but Hocking has to be favourite for it. Is Daryna Zevina not swimming this event, I would have thought she would be among the other dark horses.
I think Miss Zevina swims in Barcelona. It just looks like swimswam staff (who is swimswam staff?) doesn’t believe in her capacities for a world final.
Zevina attended every meeting of the Mare Nostrum series, but didn’t post anything promising in 200m back. Still, her actions in the series indicate she’s definitely going to swim this one in BCN.