2012 Pac 12 Women's Championship Preview

With a new year and a new name, it’s the same story of power and parity in the Pac-12 Conference, whose women will hold their conference championship meet this coming weekend at the King County Aquatic Center in Federal Way, Washington.

The only new faces at this year’s meet will be the Utah Utes – the other new addition to make the “10” into “12” was Colorado, and they don’t have a swim team.

They are expected to slot in at the bottom of the conference, and should be battling with Oregon State and Washington State for the 7th, 8th, and 9th places in the conference. As a brief introduction to the Utes, they typically have a huge taper on their relays – in the neighborhood of 10 seconds per – along with a strong individual taper as well. Their individual times usually decline throughout the 2nd semester to a peak at their conference meet.

They’ve got a decent sprint group led by sophomore Traycie Swartz (who’s also a strong backstroker). On paper, they’ve also got a great medley relay that could sneak towards the top 5.

As for the leaders of the pack, the defending conference champs Stanford, and national champs Cal, are both strong again. Despite some key graduations, both teams look like they might have even more conference-depth than they did last season. Both squads are already getting huge contributions from their freshmen.

Cal’s Catherine Breed has versatility, but this year she’s honed her focus on middle-distance and is in position to take at least two medals. Add in breaststroker Yvette Kong and Melanie Klaren, and the Cal freshmen alone could make a killer medley relay. Then of course there’s the veteran backstrokers, including defending 100 champion Cindy Tran and Stephanie Au.

And finally, their National Teamer Caitlin Leverenz is swimming better in yards than she ever has in her three years in the NCAA. She’s not historically been that great in March, but this year seems to be her time to take a run at the likes of Katinka Hosszu and Elizabeth Beisel in the IM races.

Speaking of Hosszu, she too has upped her game this season. USC’s nucleus is smaller than that of their biggest competition at Stanford and Cal, which will hurt them at the conference level, but their elite swimmers are as good as anybody’s. Hosszu is the focal point of a loaded IM group that includes Stina Gardell and Meghan Hawthorne.

Kasey Carlson is also having an outstanding year – and what’s more exciting is that she’s now the conference’s 2nd-best 200 breaststroker, in addition to the best 100 breaststroker. She’s entered in both the 100 free and the 200 breast on the final day of competition, so we won’t know for sure until meet-time which race she’ll swim, but  given the lack of competition in the conference in the 200, it makes too much sense to sit out.

On the opposite end of the sprint spectrum is open water star Haley Anderson, who is going to be juggling her Olympic qualifying schedule with her collegiate championship season. Most of the major swimmers in the country will be juggling the same – except that the open water trials are going to be jammed even closer to NCAA’s than the pool swims are.

Stanford graduated their best sprinter after last year, but have replaced her with one who is almost as good already in Maddie Schaeffer. She’s the conference’s 3rd-best 100 freestyler this year, and is poised to have a big championship season. The Cardinal also need a big stand from their highly-touted sophomore class. Distance swimmer Andie Taylor and IM’er Maya DiRado had very good freshman seasons. Felicia Lee did not. This year, the Cardinal will be relying on top performances from all three swimmers to win three straight.

The Cardinal are also left with a huge hole where Liz Smith used to be. Their breaststroke group was nearly non-existent in the first semester, and though highly-regarded freshman Katie Olsen has returned from injury this spring, she’s a big unknown quantity (her best this year is only a 1:02.3).

Arizona  and Arizona State both had gruesome starts to last year’s Pac 10 Championship meet after disqualifying the very first relay – the 200 medley – and neither was able to recover to place higher than 5th and 6th, respectively.

Arizona is a big question mark. The women had a great meet at the Texas Invite in December. They’ve been impressive this year, though not quite as fast (or controversial) as their men have been. The status quo in Tucson is to swim straight through this meet and focus it all on NCAA’s, but with Eric Hansen in charge now we don’t know whether or not that will hold true.

The sophomore sprinters (Margo Geer, Kaitlin Flederbach, and Sarah Denninghoff) are swimming as well as they did last year. Emma Darlington has returned from a shoulder injury to join them and give the Wildcats a championship-worthy sprint group.

Haley’s older sister Alyssa Anderson is chugging along to another multiple All-American season. The Wildcats also have three great breaststrokers in Ellyn Baumgardner, Chelsey Salli, and Eve Sarris. None of the three are great in the 200, though Baumgardner and Salli have been as good this year as they ever have.

Arizona State breaststroker Rebecca Ejdervik continues to shine in short course, and is always a contender for the Pac 12 100 breast title (she’s the defending champion). But the Sun Devils have built what seems to be a much stronger group around her this season.

Part of the boost has come from the transfer addition of IM’er Mattie Kukors from Michigan (who could make a couple of A-Finals). Butterflier Caroline Kuczynski finished 4th in the 100 fly, and could have been just as high last year in the 200 if it weren’t for a stumble in prelims. Shannon Landgrebe is another medal contender, especially in the 200 free.

They also have the most under-recognized National Teamer in this country in open water swimmer Tristin Baxter, though she’s in a similar pickle as Haley Anderson with open water trials.

These Sun Devils have a nucleus of extremely fast swimmers. They don’t have anywhere near the depth of schools like Cal and Stanford, but don’t let that fool you into thinking that they don’t have some swimmers who can make an impact on the team battle, at least in a big-time spoiler roll if the meet is close enough.

UCLA has lost a lot of pieces since last year, but they’ve still got some significant names. That includes sprinter Kathryn Murphy and 200 butterfly specialist Yasi Jahanashahi. But their relays are going to be in some trouble, and they’ve lost diver Laura Winn who scored them about 55 points last year. They still have a boatload of divers, who usually outscore the 14th, 15th, and 16th swimmers easily in this conference; and they always swim well at the Pac 12 meet.

Washington State is in their first year under coach Tom Jaeger, and their sprint group seems to already be seeing the benefits. There’s still a big talent gap (maybe even moreso than last year), but their top sprinters Melissa Bogert and Evelina Bieleckaite have looked better this year than last coming into this meet.

Oregon State is in a similar position to Washington State, working with an entirely different caliber of athlete, but they have one jewel in their crown in Rachel O’Brien. She’s an outstanding butterflier who could outscore the individual points of the rest of her teammates combined.

Let’s take a look at the best races of the weekend.

100 breast

There are quite a few breaststrokers in this conference who fancy themselves as purely speed breaststrokers, and though most of them will also be entered in the 200, this 100 is the race that will take all of the bragging rights. The top of the pile is Kasey Carlson (though as mentioned above, she’s recently found a great 200 as well). Rebecca Ejdervik hit her peak at the Stockholm World Cup, so her ranking this season isn’t as impressive as others have been in-season, but she’s every bit as good. Ellyn Baumgardner probably won’t be rested for this meet, but should still be under a minute. Then there’s the new faces like Chelsey Salli, Yvette Kong, and maybe Katie Olsen (if she’s truly healthy). Caitlin Levernz is entered in the race, though one would imagine she’ll swim the 400 IM on the 3rd day of competition instead.

This seems to be Carlson’s race to win, given USC’s propensity to swim well in season. There’s probably about 8 girls in this race who are all capable of 59-or-better in this race – though I’d bet that only about 4 of them will.

400 IM

Three of the four best 400 IM’ers in the country all reside in the state of California, and at three different schools none-the-less. Katinka Hosszu, Caitlin Leverenz, and Maya DiRado are among those who will be involved in an epic collision for March that could be one of the most hyped women’s college races ever. This meet will be but a preview – none of these three women are even moderately concerned about qualifying for NCAA’s – but they could all still be 4:02 or better, even without much rest.

Hosszu is the best butterflier. DiRado is the best backstroker. Leverenz is the best breaststroker. That should leave the race to the freestyle at the end. DiRado has historically been the best finisher, but she’s usually got some ground to make up after a fairly weak breaststroke leg. Hosszu still has the upper-hand as the defending champ, but should be a barn-burner of a race.

50 Free

In 2010, when Cal’s Liv Jensen was the NCAA Champion in the 50 free, not a single collegiate woman went under 22 seconds. This year already two Pac-12 swimmers alone have gone under that barrier – Jensen in 21.84, and Arizona sophomore Margo Geer in 21.94. There’s a chance that at least two more – Kasey Carlson and Sam Woodward – will at this meet alone. Both of those latter two are having phenomenal seasons this year. It’s nearly a guarantee that it will require sub-22 to medal.

This race will be tight enough that you’re better off watching the scoreboard than the wall to see who won, but I think that Woodward takes it in a bit of an upset.

Predictions

Note that the Pac-12 scores three heats of finals – an A, B, and C, with a win worth 32 big points in an individual, and 64 in a relay.

First and foremost, I would predict that there will be multiple Pac 12 Records going down at this meet. Candidates include Hosszu’s 400 IM and Cindy Tran in the 100 backstroke.

As for the standings, it will be another barn-burner this year. Defending champion Stanford’s biggest hit will be the loss of diver Meg Hostage, who scored some big points in a diving-weak Pac 12.

Arizona throws a wrench of unpredictability in, but I’d presume they’ll be largely unrested (though, today’s unrested seems to be maybe a bit faster than unrested last year at the same time).

I think Cal’s improved depth (even more than they had last year) gives them a shot at the conference-national double this season. Stanford didn’t replace with enough of an immediate-impact to hold on to that cushion.

USC will win a lot of titles, but in overall team scoring remain on a bit of an island. UCLA graduated too many big pieces, including their top diver, to hold off a DQ-free Arizona program (relay DQ’s are worth 50-60 points at Pac 12’s).

1. Cal
2. Stanford
3. USC
4. Arizona
5. Arizona State
6. UCLA
7. Utah
8. Washington State
9. Oregon State