Michael Phelps appears to be pondering adding 200 butterfly to his event schedule. In terms of his Olympic medal count, this is “potentially” a positive sign.
CONFESSION: Since Phelps comeback I’ve wondered if Coach Bowman was gently suggesting event options. I can hear Bowman saying something like this…
Bob Bowman & Michael Phelps (courtesy of Mike Lewis)
Michael, 200 fly isn’t a tough race. It’s pacing, distance per stroke, and you could probably medal in Rio off your years and years of aerobic-base already banked.
I have no clue what their conversations are, but it’s fun to consider. I could just as easily imagine Bowman being blunt:
Michael….not racing 200 fly, for you, is an enormous opportunity loss. You need to do it. 200 fly offers you everything, a way to focus on more challenging training, potentially another medal. Do it…. I’m telling you, you need to do it. Doooo iiiit…
Michael Phelps (photo: Mike Lewis, Ola Vista Photography)
Does anyone else want to take a crack at what their conversations might be? Share in the comments.
Phelps looked rough at the Charlotte Pro Swim. I think that’s a great sign, and he said he’s done more 200 butterfly training in the last 6 months than all of the years combined since 2008.
Looking forward to the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio, I think the competition will be all about medal-count with respect to Phelps, all about sealing his legacy with a mind-boggling number, seemingly unreachable. I think he’ll end his career with “at least” 27 medals, meaning he wins 5 more in Brazil. Yes, I’d like to see Phelps swim personal best times, break a world record, but at the end of the day, the narrative is medal count. Moreover, I don’t think the color of the medals will matter when we look back 10, 20, 50 years from now.
MEL MEDAL PREDICTIONS FOR THE 2016 OLYMPIC GAMES
I’ll go this far. Phelps wins 5 more medals. I think he swims 100 and 200 butterfly, 200 IM, 4×100 free relay, 4×200 free relay and 4×100 medley. That’s six events. If Phelps has an off race, he’s still got five more races to medal. As mentioned above, I don’t think the color of the medals matter, but I think — at this point in the ramp up to Rio — Phelps will win 3 gold, 1 silver and 1 bronze. FINAL THOUGHT: If Phelps struggles, has an off Olympics in Rio, I think winning merely one more medal matters. 22 medals is already beyond what most of us could’ve imagined. One more makes the medal-count that much harder to reach for future Olympic stars.
What are your Michael Phelps predictions for the 2016 Olympic Games?
RECENT EPISODES
This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.
Phelps wants all three world records in the 100/200 Fly and 200 IM, no doubt about. In terms of which is his main focus…maybe the 200 Fly (since it’s HIS event) but there’s so much excitement around the 100 Fly and the 200 IM for him, and with his ability to focus so unparalleled, that having each event in his sights is likely.
In terms of times, well, you’ve gotta break barriers in the 100 Fly (:50, the WR being just under at 49.82) and 200 IM (1:54) anyway. Anything below those is the goal, guessing specifics doesn’t matter and is sorta unknowable until we see him closer to Rio. 200 Fly…like Mel said I think anything 1:51.XX would be… Read more »
Whoops, how did I get here. Wrong page blaaaaaaaaah ._.
I just want to puff my chest a bit….
I predicted Phelps would go 1:53 in 200m fly at US Nats. I went as far as to say he’d be out in 53 and home under 1:00….and I caught crap for it. Now we know I was wrong after Phelps’ 1:52.9. Ha!!! I love being wrong when Phelps goes faster.
Standby… I got new predictions coming soon…
Mel, I love your work, but I think you miscalculated mathematically. Your video is about the possibility of Phelps swimming the 200 fly in Rio, isn’t it? He now has 22 medals. Not that anybody REALLY knows, but I think it’s a fair assumption MP will try for the 100 fly, 200 IM and all 3 relays in Rio. 22 + 5 = 27. If you’re suggesting that MP will swim the 200 fly and that he’s likely to medal in it if he does, then shouldn’t the title of this article be, “Will Michael Phelps End His Olympic Career with 28 Medals?”
On an unrelated topic, why do 200 butterfly stars have such great hair? I’m more jealous of… Read more »
100 Fly-50.20, gold medal
200 Fly-1:52.50, gold medal
200 IM-1:53.99, gold medal
4×100 Free-48.5 split, silver medal
4×200 Free-1:44.9 split, silver medal
4×100 Medley-50.4 split, gold medal
4 gold, 2 silver
I have to present the unsung argument that 50.4 is not that difficult to breach in 2015/2016 if Phelps was able to go 50.65 off the training he did in 2010. Not to take anything away from Crocker, that swim was breathtaking, but I do think that in a world where people have been swimming 51’s for over a decade and a half that a third man will go under 51 seconds, and do so convincingly. It would not be surprising to see more than 1 person swimming a 50 point in Kazan given how Czerniak looks atm.
In 2012, Bowman stated that Phelps wont swim any events in which in doesn’t think he’ll win. There’s 0% chance he’ll switch that train of thought and I 100% agree with that which additional support provided by the fact that it will not support his legacy to win this event.
He has no 3 peat opportunities. His main focus are the 200Im and the 100fly, and if there is a third event, it will be the 100free for obvious reasons. There is no gain in going back to the 200fly other than for training.
Personally I could care less about ‘medal count’ at this point. I’d love to just see Michael have a chance to focus a a few events and have fun and swim really, really fast.
Michael will win at 39 his 30th and final olympic medal in 2024 in Paris.
Intense prediction. What race are you thinking Bobo? I’d say 4×100 Free Relay is most likely.
Medley relay of course. 🙂
And it will be a gold medal of course!
Interesting prediction! 🙂
I’d be really happy to see Michael win his 30th medal as a gold on the 4×100 Medley.
Michael will win his 30th Olympic gold medal & it’s the 100free… he wins it in front of his home crowd! 😀
he will become the first & only man in swimming history to win it at the age of 39. lol 😀
MP just keeps swimming swimming swimming…..