SwimSwam Pulse: 81% Favor 400 IM WR Over 400 Free Gold For McIntosh In 2022

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers which 400-meter accomplishment is more likely for Canadian Summer McIntosh to achieve this year:

Question: Which feat is Summer McIntosh more likely to accomplish in 2022?

RESULTS

• Break Hosszu’s 400 IM world record – 81.6%
• Beat Ledecky/Titmus in 400 free at Worlds/Comm Games – 18.4%

Up until two weeks ago, both feats looked pretty far out of reach for every swimmer in the world. The women’s 400 IM world record of 4:26.36 hadn’t come close to being approached since Katinka Hosszu set it in 2016, and Ariarne Titmus and Katie Ledecky have been head and shoulders above the rest in the 400 free for several years.

Things changed in early March, as teenage sensation Summer McIntosh dropped an incredible time of 4:29.12 in the 400 IM—the fastest since Hosszu set the world record—to rank third all-time in the event.

All of a sudden Hosszu’s world record appeared to be in sight, especially given the fact that McIntosh was presumably not fully tapered for the meet as she prepares for the Canadian World Trials next month.

This sparked the question: is it more likely for McIntosh to break Hosszu’s world record or beat either Ledecky or Titmus in the 400 free this year?

McIntosh, 15, is now within three seconds of Hosszu’s record. At the Olympics (when she was still just 14), she finished fourth in the 400 free in 4:02.42, just under six seconds behind Titmus (3:56.69) and just over five back of Ledecky (3:57.36).

But with the progress she’s clearly made in the time since the Games, the question then becomes what she’s capable of doing in the 400 free. Sub-4:00 seems imminent, but can she get down to the level of Titmus and Ledecky?

81.6 percent of readers believe the 400 IM world record is more likely for McIntosh in 2022 than a win over Ledecky or Titmus, which checks out given her recent medley performance. But if she drops something similarly impressive in the 400 free at World Trials, which are in early April, that narrative could change.

As outlined here, if McIntosh is to take a run at the 400 IM world record, it may come at the Commonwealth Games, rather than the World Championships, due to it being on the opening day of competition rather than the last.

Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: Which swimmer will put the most points on the board next week at the men’s NCAA Championships:

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The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.