When it comes to 100 meter butterfly swims in season Michael Phelps will take a 51 mid, 51.9, a 51 anything…but he hates swimming 52 seconds. 51 in season is the Phelps-butterfly-sweetspot. If Phelps can drop a 51, he knows he’s in the 50 second range at the end-of-season taper meet.
I’ll never forget watching the test swim meet in Omaha before the 2008 U.S. Olympic Trials. Phelps swam a 51+ 100 fly, and he looked calmly satisfied. That was one moment — in a long line of moments — where I realized how dialed-in Coach Bob Bowman was with Phelps’ preparation for Olympic competition.
PREDICTIONS
I’m sticking by my prediction from earlier this year. I think sub 50.4 is a small goal for Phelps, edging out Ian Crocker’s world best textile suit time. I think Phelps would ultimately like to swim a personal best at 2016 U.S. Olympic Trials in Omaha or the 2016 Olympic Games in Rio. He’s not been shy about that, but going sub 49.8 in the 100m butterfly seems superhuman without the aid of rubberized floatation. I don’t know why 49.9 feels doable, only one tenth slower, but I think Phelps will crack the 50 second barrier in 100m fly, just missing his world mark.
What do you think? Times don’t matter at the Olympic Games. It’s about medals. Who is Phelps’ competition in Rio? Will Chad le Clos or Joseph Schooling edge Phelps in 100m fly? What swimmers could knock these stars off the podium?
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I raced Michael in the 200 fly at the Junior National meet in Orlando in 98′ that he referenced at the end of the video. He went a 204.5 and made the Olympic Trial cut as a 14 year old. The following year he dropped 6 seconds and made the olympic team as a 15 year old in the same event. Crazy.
Michael will swim the 200 fly the 100 fly and the 200 IM. The 100 fly and the 200 IM are both events that Michael has proved his dominance in, and maybe will win a gold for the fourth straight Olympics in both of those events. The reason I think Phelps will swim the 200 fly is because he has that world record and his times this year have proved that he has a chance of breaking it for over the 8th time. Maybe, if Michael is in good shape he could swim seven events (four individual and three relays), but it depends on how fast Michael can recover at the age of 31.
Le Clos : 50.15
MP: 50.25
JS: 50.26
I think the talk of Conger/Schooling is interesting. I think Conger’s swims at NCAA are pretty indicative of not being fully rested. He lacked short speed in the 100 fly and overcompensated a little on the 200 fly to adjust. But with all things considered, he still had a good endurance base for that last day of the meet. With a full taper and a more spread out schedule we could see something amazing. As for Schooling, I also think he wasn’t fully rested but seems to have sort of an inate ability to get up and race when needed. Crazy fire and passion from him. Without a need for a second taper meet before the Oly I could see… Read more »
I was expecting more speed out of Conger too at NCs…. I think he’s one of those guys that probably pushes everything in practice and need a lot more rest… We’ll see. Eddie’s had big success in Olympic years (was my Olympic coach in 1992). I have a lot of faith in him.
Not a given this time around. But I still go back to that 2009 championship race in Rome, last time in the suits…and get chils. Most incredible race he’s ever done considering all the drama.
I agree, Kirkola. A good journalist could write a fantastic article (or even a pamphlet) about the 100 fly at Rome2009.
1) Cavic was super-pumped for that race; after Beijing08 he had trained super-hard to take the revenge of Beijing loss (which he thought wasn’t a loss).
Phelps after Beijing had done everything (above all partying) but swimming, and when the famous photo with the bong was published the early days of February, he had seriously thought about retiring. Only at the mid of March 09 he started training, definitely out-of-shape. So, huge gap, considering their preparation for these Worlds, between Cavic and Phelps, obviously in Cavic favour.
2) Cavic, like in Beijing, was completely focused upon 100 fly.… Read more »
Let him qualify first. First or second spot at Trials is never granted, not even for him. There are hungry sharks in that pool, and fast.
You are right, Luigi.
Marquinhos, any insight on Jo’s event schedule for Rio? How will he probe 2fly vs 100free? At Mesa or Charlotte maybe? Does he swim both? (I’d like to see it). He’d have to be going back into a very tough training block now following NCAA taper so not sure if we will see his best again for a while. Personally i got Jo as a dark horse for Rio in more than 1 event but I don’t want to put pressure on the guy either. Youth and a whole nation is on his side. Not too worried about his recovery and I do think when it is time to perform the guy is off the blocks like a Bengal tiger.
He has not yet revealed his schedule for the Grand Prix, in fact we are not sure yet if he’ll even feature at the Grand Prix because what we know is that the other Singapore swimmers (who train under Sergio Lopez) will be there. But Joseph has indicated he is not going to join the Singapore team who from now to Rio has a huge program. What we know is that Joseph will fly straight from the US to Rio, and likely will not be there too early because he said he spent too much time in London during 2012 before his races and that sort of got him too hyped up in the environment.
I personally think he’ll… Read more »
Mel, any thoughts on Lochte’s event schedule? Another article maybe?
Will he hang up the 100fly or give it another go?
I’d say he swims both IMs , 200free and 2 relays. He’d be best to dodge Phelps as much as possible. He learns from mistake of 2back 2im double or no? I’d say he tests the 2back at trials if nothing to lose.
Very good question. If I had to predict, I’d say Lochte at Trials swims: 400 IM, 200 free, 100 free, 200 IM… maybe the 100 fly as a bonus swim if he’s had a really good meet.
The 200 Bk / 2 IM double seems unlikely. He hasn’t swam 200 back much at recent meets, and the event order would make the middle of his meet VERY busy. IF he’s capable of going ~1:53 in the backstroke to qualify (big if), he’ll be swimming really fast and probably have better IMs and relay prospects.
We’re doing big features on all of the superstars. Lochte will get his breakdown… and then commenters will load us with endless details. That’s the best part about comments. All the data comes out!