How Will Texas Fare In The SEC? Analyzing Simulated 2024 Results

Three years after accepting the invitation, the University of Texas officially became a member of the SEC on July 1, 2024, marking a seismic shift in the college sports landscape.

Texas’ addition to the conference comes one year earlier than initially agreed upon, as the Longhorns and the University of Oklahoma reached a $100 million agreement with the Big 12 for an early exit last year.

Texas has long been a powerhouse in college swimming, with the men’s team having placed either 1st or 2nd at the NCAA Championships for eight straight seasons from 2014 until 2022, while the women have reeled off three consecutive runner-up finishes at nationals after placing 3rd in 2021.

At the Big 12 Championships, the Longhorns have absolutely dominated the competition, but now in the SEC, conference titles won’t be a foregone conclusion.

At least for the men, comparing last season’s Texas team to the one we’ll see in 2024-25 might be like apples and oranges. They’ve got a new frontman, head coach and Director of Swimming Bob Bowman, and will make significant additions including transfers Hubert KosRex Maurer and Andrew Shackell, incoming freshmen Cooper Lucas and Kyle Peck, and the return of David Johnston, who redshirted the 2023-24 season.

The women’s team, led by Carol Capitani, will lose Kelly Pash but retains a good chunk of their core and figure to be a top-three team at NCAAs once again.

But how will they fare at the SEC Championships?

Below, find the results of the 2024 SEC Championships with Texas’ times from Big 12s factored into the results.

Simulation courtesy of Kevin Hallmann. Note that the simulator only includes results from the top nine scoring teams, so the results are not exact. You can scroll down in the embedded PDF to see each event.

MEN’S RESULTS

[pdf-embedder url=”https://swimswam.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Swimming-Simulator.pdf” title=”Swimming Simulator”]

Projected Team Standings

  1. Florida, 754.5
  2. Auburn, 450.5
  3. Georgia, 434.0
  4. Tennessee, 414.0
  5. Texas, 352.0
  6. Texas A&M, 337.5
  7. Alabama, 205.5
  8. LSU, 187
  9. South Carolina, 133

WOMEN’S RESULTS

[pdf-embedder url=”https://swimswam.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Swimming-Simulator2.pdf” title=”Swimming Simulator2″]

Projected Team Standings

  1. Florida, 661.5
  2. Texas, 580
  3. Tennessee, 508.5
  4. Texas A&M, 384.5
  5. Georgia, 307
  6. Auburn, 268
  7. Alabama, 251
  8. South Carolina, 211.5
  9. LSU, 127

One major caveat that goes along with any changes to rosters next season is the fact that Texas essentially doesn’t taper at all for Big 12s—at least their top swimmers who have locked up NCAA qualification don’t—because they can cruise to the conference title quite easily.

That leads the Longhorns to have some relatively slow times factored into the simulated results, which is one of the reasons why the men would’ve only placed 5th, more than 400 points back of Florida, and the women would’ve been distant runners-up to the Gators at the 2024 SECs.

Given the additions they’ve made, and the fact that we’ll surely see Bowman have them—at least the men’s team—ready to swim fast when the conference championships come around—at ASU, we saw Bowman’s swimmers going quick all season—the battle at SECs promises to be exciting.

But after claiming the conference title was an afterthought for so many years, a stepping stone to the NCAA Championships,the Longhorns now have their work cut out for them if they are to become SEC champions, with Florida being the team standing in their way.

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Hmm
4 months ago

all that analysis to then summarize it with ‘well they never tapered for Big 12s’ and ‘they have a new coach so it is going be different anyways’……

Travino
4 months ago

Hahaha. Swimswam doesn’t know anything about Texas. They will be on top soon, not just sec but everything….

Admin
Reply to  Travino
4 months ago

Comment brought to you by the guy who left 42 comments swearing that Carson Foster was going to show up for Big 12s last year.

Diehard
4 months ago

Just looking quickly, the mens projections for Texas seem way low!

1500m Free Semifinals
4 months ago

Tons of limitations with an alternate approach (SwimCloud simulation, 2023-2024, 3d meet, 24 place scoring, 3 individual events and 4 relays per athlete, 1 relay per team), but with no diving the swimulator would give us:
— Women: 1) TX 1364, 2) Flor 1213, 3) Tenn 946, 4) TAMU 848, 5) UGA 801.
— Men: 1) Flor 1455, 2) TX 1181, 3) TAMU 1017, 4) Aub 933, 5) UGA 903.

1500m Free Semifinals
4 months ago

This simulation essentially says “TBD”. Lol

Swimfan
4 months ago

I am suspect about the men’s rankings – the photo is of Luke Hobson and yet he is not included in any of the freestyle results – he’s the American record holder in the 200 yd free, he’ll score some points even if not tapered, if he goes to the meet. He’ll be a senior so why is he left out?

Wethorn
Reply to  Swimfan
4 months ago

I think he skipped the Big 12 meet because he was at Worlds just prior. Which just reinforces the point that the Big 12 meet was a joke but Texas will need to change their approach to the conference championship if they want to win it.

Horninco
Reply to  Wethorn
4 months ago

Will be interesting to see if Bob does a big rest for the swimmers already qualified or not

As I’ve maintained, if Texas (or any school) feels like they can compete for the national title then I’m more concerned with that than a conference title

(G)olden Bear
Reply to  Horninco
4 months ago

Conference titles are for those with no chance of winning national titles. #hookem #gobears

chickenlamp
4 months ago

Bowman seemed to taper ASU quite a bit for PAC-12, so I imagine he’ll do the same at SECs. Last year’s Texas roster would not have been competing for the conference win regardless of taper, but this year with all their high profile transfers I think they could.

Flutterfly
4 months ago

Looking at SEC, who has the fastest incoming freshmen?

SwimFL
Reply to  Flutterfly
4 months ago

On the women’s side it was Bella Sims. Not sure on the men’s side. We know that the ACC will have the fastest freshmen next year Maximus Williamson and Thomas Heilman.

Does anyone know if Katie Grimes is going to swim in college? I don’t see her committed anywhere.

Samuel Huntington
Reply to  SwimFL
4 months ago

The 2 boys are in high school next year.

SwimFL
Reply to  Samuel Huntington
4 months ago

I stand corrected. Darn, I guess I have wishful thinking.

hin qaiyang
Reply to  Samuel Huntington
4 months ago

Feels like theyve been high schoolers forever now lol

Flutterfly
Reply to  SwimFL
4 months ago

Referring to 2024 class. Many top girls are going to ACC. SEC, Texas and Tennessee seem to have dominate ladies coming in.

Bad Man
Reply to  Flutterfly
4 months ago

https://swimswam.com/re-rank-top-20-ncaa-swimming-recruits-in-the-girls-high-school-class-of-2024/

Not much top talent going into the SEC next year for the women. 13/20 going into the ACC.

Aquajosh
Reply to  Flutterfly
4 months ago

Next year, Florida gets Julie Brousseau and Nicole Maier both of which are 1:57 long course 200 freestylers and Swiss Army knives like Bella, NCAA qualifier Julia Heimstead from Arizona, and Anita Bottazzo from Italy who is a 30.0/1:07.1 LC breaststroker. They’ve not only replaced Ivey’s points, they’ve also shored up any weaknesses. It’s going to be tough for any team to beat them, let alone at SECs.

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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