This article (data only) originally appeared in the 2024 Olympic Preview edition of SwimSwam Magazine. Subscribe to the SwimSwam Magazine here.
As a whole, swimming has continued to progress and get faster in the three years since Tokyo—we’ve already seen five world records go down so far in 2024, and eight others (in Olympic events) were broken in 2023.
However, under the bright lights of the Olympics, with all of the outside noise that comes along with it—not to mention the usually less-than-ideal conditions athletes deal with at the Games—the winning times can sometimes be a bit slower than we’d anticipated.
In Tokyo, only two individual events were won in world record fashion: the men’s 100 fly and women’s 200 breast.
Caeleb Dressel‘s mark of 49.45 in the 100 fly is still on the books three years later, while Tatjana Smith‘s (Schoenmaker) 200 breast record of 2:18.95 has been obliterated by Evgeniia Chikunova in 2:17.55—though Chikunova, a Russian, won’t be racing in Paris.
Just in the last six months, we’ve seen swimmers log faster times than what won gold in Tokyo in 16 of the 28 individual Olympic events, showing us just how much faster things have gotten in recent years.
And while we expect things to be quicker as a whole in Paris than they were in Tokyo—in some events, by a lot—how much faster things get relative to what we’ve seen in the last 18 months remains to be seen.
Below, find the times required to win gold, bronze, and what it took to final (8th in the semis, or prelims of events 400 and up) at the Tokyo Games. What do you think will be required to win, reach the podium, and make the final in Paris?
MEN – TOKYO OLYMPICS
| EVENT | GOLD MEDAL | BRONZE MEDAL | TO FINAL |
| 50m Freestyle | 21.07 | 21.57 | 21.78 |
| 100m Freestyle | 47.02 | 47.44 | 47.82 |
| 200m Freestyle | 1:44.22 | 1:44.66 | 1:45.71 |
| 400m Freestyle | 3:43.36 | 3:43.94 | 3:45.68 |
| 800m Freestyle | 7:41.87 | 7:42.33 | 7:47.73 |
| 1500m Freestyle | 14:39.65 | 14:40.91 | 14:52.66 |
| 100m Backstroke | 51.98 | 52.19 | 53.20 |
| 200m Backstroke | 1:53.27 | 1:54.72 | 1:56.69 |
| 100m Breaststroke | 57.37 | 58.33 | 59.18 |
| 200m Breaststroke | 2:06.38 | 2:07.13 | 2:08.76 |
| 100m Butterfly | 49.45 WR | 50.74 | 51.30 |
| 200m Butterfly | 1:51.25 | 1:54.45 | 1:55.31 |
| 200m IM | 1:55.00 | 1:56.17 | 1:57.64 |
| 400m IM | 4:09.42 | 4:10.38 | 4:10.20 |
WOMEN – TOKYO OLYMPCIS
| EVENT | GOLD MEDAL | BRONZE MEDAL | TO FINAL |
| 50m Freestyle | 23.81 | 24.21 | 24.32* |
| 100m Freestyle | 51.96 | 52.52 | 53.11 |
| 200m Freestyle | 1:53.50 | 1:54.70 | 1:56.58 |
| 400m Freestyle | 3:56.69 | 4:01.08 | 4:04.07 |
| 800m Freestyle | 8:12.57 | 8:18.35 | 8:20.58 |
| 1500m Freestyle | 15:37.34 | 15:42.91 | 15:58.96 |
| 100m Backstroke | 57.47 | 58.05 | 59.30 |
| 200m Backstroke | 2:04.68 | 2:06.17 | 2:08.76 |
| 100m Breaststroke | 1:04.95 | 1:05.54 | 1:06.59 |
| 200m Breaststroke | 2:18.95 WR | 2:20.84 | 2:23.73 |
| 100m Butterfly | 55.59 | 55.72 | 57.19 |
| 200m Butterfly | 2:03.86 | 2:05.65 | 2:09.07 |
| 200m IM | 2:08.52 | 2:09.04 | 2:10.59 |
| 400m IM | 4:32.08 | 4:34.90 | 4:37.37 |
*Tied for 8th, scratched led to no swim-off
The relays are a bit of a different story, as we saw four world records fall in Tokyo, while the all-time marks were seriously approached in two others (men’s 400 and 800 free relays).
RELAYS – TOKYO OLYMPICS
| EVENT | GOLD MEDAL | BRONZE MEDAL | TO FINAL | |
| Men | 4x100m Freestyle Relay | 3:08.97 | 3:10.22 | 3:13.13 |
| 4x200m Freestyle Relay | 6:58.58 | 7:01.84 | 7:07.73 | |
| 4x100m Medley Relay | 3:26.78 WR | 3:29.17 | 3:32.38 | |
| Women | 4x100m Freestyle Relay | 3:29.69 WR | 3:32.81 | 3:35.93 |
| 4x200m Freestyle Relay | 7:40.33 WR | 7:41.29 | 7:56.16 | |
| 4x100m Medley Relay | 3:51.60 | 3:52.60 | 3:57.70 | |
| Mixed | 4x100m Medley Relay | 3:37.58 WR | 3:38.95 | 3:43.94 |
The world records in the women’s 400 and 800 free relays were lowered significantly by the Australians in 2023, while the men’s medley relay record (USA) and the mixed medley mark (Great Britain) remain on the books today.
I think the bronze medal times in the following events could be faster than the gold-winning time from Tokyo:
200 FR: 1:53.50 (decent chance – Mollie and Titmus definitely under, mostly comes down to Haughey)
400 FR: 3:56.69 (quite unlikely – Titmus for sure, possibly McIntosh, 3rd could be Ledecky)
100 BK: 57.47 (likely – I expect Smith and McKeown to be under. Masse or Berkoff could be under this time)
200 BK: 2:04.68 (somewhat likely – again Smith and McKeown should definitely be under, I could see a third under)
100 FL: 55.59 (likely – Gretchen should be faster, Huske as well, and the field is so fast)
200 IM: 2:08.52 (as close to… Read more »
I predict the men’s finals qualifying times will get faster across the board while the women’s will stay roughly the same
4:09.4 won’t even medal in the men’s 4 IM this year, that’s wild
I feel it shouldn’t even have medaled last time.
That was a ridiculously slow podium. It was an ok top 8 time to make the final but the slowest winning time in forever. Not sure if finals being in morning had anything to do with it?!?!
Morning final and extremely fast heats presumably had a role in that.
The men’s 400 IM final qualifying time of 4:10.20 was LOWER than the bronze time of 4:10.38.
Had forgotten about that, some race eh..
That’s the one that stands out for me, too. I can see the same thing happening in the men’s 400FS this time around where it will be a dog fight to qualify and then the majority go slower in the final.
Prelims at night and finals in the morning might have been a big reason why?