Marchand Punches Ticket to Paris with 4:10.62 4IM; Don’t Panic About the Time

by Mark Wild 23

June 17th, 2024 Europe, International, News

2024 FRENCH ELITE CHAMPIONSHIPS

MEN’S 400 IM – FINALS

  • World Record: 4:02.50 – Leon Marchand, FRA (2023)
  • World Junior Record: 4:10.02 – Ilya Borodin, RUS (2021)
  • French Record: 4:02.50 – Leon Marchand (2023)
  • 2021 Winning Time: 4:09.65 – Leon Marchand
  • Olympic Qualifying Time: 4:12.50

Top 3

  1.  Leon Marchand (Dauphins Toulouse OEC) – 4:10.62
  2.  Emilien Mattent (Charleville-Mezieres Natation) – 4:16.22
  3.  Jaouad Syoud (Dauphins Toulouse OEC) – 4:19.91

Leon Marchand, with his swim tonight, is officially on his way to Paris. After placing 6th in the 400 IM in Tokyo, Marchand has turned himself into the dominant force in the event. He swept both the medleys at the 2022 Worlds and 2023 Worlds and in yards, has lowered the mark by handfuls of seconds each season he has swum it.

The 4:10.62 he swam is not one of his fastest swims; he’s been under 4:10 at least four times, but it should be no reason to panic. It is very likely that Marchand is not fully rested, if rested at all and with the lack of domestic competition in his events, he should feel very little pressure. Looking at his splits, we can support such a deduction.

Fly Back Breast Free Total
2024 French Trials 55.26 1:03.84 1:09.60 1:01.92 4:10.62
2023 Worlds Prelims 54.27 1:02.97 1:11.95 1:01.69 4:10.88
2023 Worlds Finals (WR) 54.66 1:01.98 1:07.64 58.22 4:02.50

Marchand was faster tonight than his 2023 prelims time, which, as we all know, was the step right before his World Record breaking 4:02.50. In comparing the splits of the two 4:10s, we can see that Marchand has improved his breaststroke dramatically and was just a little slower across the other three hundreds. If he was out of shape and died, we could expect to see the first 100s closer to his world record, and the back half would see a dramatic drop-off.

Last night, Marchand’s closet rival Carson Foster booked his ticket to Paris as he swam a 4:07.64 to qualify for his first Olympics. While the American’s time is almost three seconds faster than Marchand’s results from today, one should not read too much into it.

Fly Back Breast Free
Marchand Trials 55.26 1:59.10 (1:03.84) 3:08.70 (1:09.60) 4:10.62 (1:01.92)
Foster Trials 55.33 1:58.82 (1:03.49) 3:09.63 (1:10.81) 4:07.64 (58.01)

After the breaststroke, Marchand had a theoretical lead over close to a second on Foster but also an eight-second lead and, unlike Foster, was not being chased by the defending gold and silver Olympic medalists and the ghosts of three years past.

This is no to say that Foster (and Chase Kalisz) don’t have a chance in Paris, as if you have a lane, you have a chance, but I wouldn’t go writing any Marchand obituaries.

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Shannon
6 months ago

It’s just a warm up for O! No competition..don’t need an in depth analysis!

Miself
6 months ago

Marchand most likely isn’t going to be threatened in the 400 IM I would expect 200 IM 200 breast and 200 fly to be much harder victories for the world record holder

Facts
Reply to  Miself
6 months ago

It seems like he’s gunning for the 200 IM more with his much improved speed in NCAAs and the fast 100 breast he dropped. Should still win the 400 IM in Paris easily but may not be a world record

EXCALIBUR
6 months ago

I just saw the entire race & he was easy all the way through ….specially on the free leg

Jalen T
6 months ago

Can you imagine if Marchand chokes at his home Olympics especially after him and Bowman forced the Olympics to change the schedule??? That would be KARMA

Dom
Reply to  Jalen T
6 months ago

Let sport decide and not Buddhism.

HeGetsItDoneAgain
6 months ago

Lmfao everyone is lowkey scared right now. Y’all are protesting a little too much. Almost like you’re trying to convince yourself.

Sqimgod
6 months ago

Foster will be about 4:04 in Paris, Marchand needs his A game

Last edited 6 months ago by Sqimgod
mcswammerstein
Reply to  Sqimgod
6 months ago

But 3:59 is faster than 4:04

Snarky
Reply to  Sqimgod
6 months ago

I’m guessing Foster is 4:05, Kalicz 4:07, and Marchand 4:04 in Paris. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Leon and the US always performs on the big Oly stage.

Greenangel
Reply to  Sqimgod
6 months ago

Of course Marchand needs to be at his best in the OG close to his record or breaking it, like every swimmer. I don’t see 4:04 for Foster. I bet on a time between 4:05 and 4:05.50.

Genevieve Nnaji
Reply to  Sqimgod
6 months ago

Can I have what you are ingesting?

Thorpe>Phelps>Steelers>Biedermann
6 months ago

Does Foster have a shot if he is on at the Olympics?

Swimmer
Reply to  Thorpe>Phelps>Steelers>Biedermann
6 months ago

The only way I can see it is if the home crowd nerves get to Marchand (unlikely), or he gets DQ’d swimming more then 15m underwater, (also pretty unlikely)

Eric Angle
Reply to  Swimmer
6 months ago

With respect to nerves, Marchand has consistently risen to occasion, swimming his fastest when it mattered most. If anything, the home crowd could make him swim that much faster.

Genevieve Nnaji
Reply to  Eric Angle
6 months ago

Yup.

Marchand is like Phelps in that regard.

Eric Angle
Reply to  Genevieve Nnaji
6 months ago

Here’s what Bowman said about Marchand ( https://www.swimmingworldmagazine.com/news/after-ncaa-record-leon-marchand-has-sights-set-on-ncaa-team-title/ ):

“He has what all high performers have, which is the ability to block everything out at the critical moment and focus on the task at hand. He’s very good at that, as good as anybody I’ve ever coached at that, to be honest.”

Swammer
Reply to  Swimmer
6 months ago

Could be possible that the crowd gets Marchand too amped up and he goes out like a freight train. If Foster is ever gonna beat him it’ll be on the free leg, and there’s no better way to do that than if Marchand goes out way too fast

JJ jfhfjg
Reply to  Swammer
6 months ago

Freestyle leg? Marchand is faster than foster on freestyle on any day and in any event.

Mclovineta
Reply to  JJ jfhfjg
6 months ago

Lol no

RealSlimThomas
Reply to  Thorpe>Phelps>Steelers>Biedermann
6 months ago

I think Foster’s best bet at beating him head to head will be at a World Championships where Marchand has not fully tapered or taken on too large of a schedule. Sad to say as an American but probably true.

SwimStats
Reply to  Thorpe>Phelps>Steelers>Biedermann
6 months ago

Are we actually having a conversation about whether Marchand can be beaten? I’m not saying anything either way, I’m just surprised that this conversation is happening.

Edit: PS: nice name

Last edited 6 months ago by SwimStats
Outside Smoke
Reply to  SwimStats
6 months ago

“Hey what if the guy that has often underperformed when it matters most beats the guy that has never underperformed when it matters most?”