2025 M. NCAA Previews: What Will it Take to Win

2025 Men’s NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships

• March 26-29, 2025
• Weyerhaeuser King County Aquatics Center, Federal Way, Washington
• Short Course Yards (25 yards)
• SwimSwam Pick’Em Contest
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Psych Sheet

We have spent the last week previewing every individual and relay event at the 2025 NCAA Championships, but those aren’t the only races happening.

Perhaps the most exciting race, is the team race for the NCAA title. Perennial victors Cal and Texas will both be fighting to earn back the title. Indiana, Florida, and Tennessee are also potential winners this week.

We scored out the psych sheets almost two weeks ago, and then we compared those psych sheets scores to the way teams typically perform at the meet. Now, we are going to dive a little deeper into the psych sheets and scoring when it comes to the top four teams (Texas, Florida, California, Indiana) and what you can watch for throughout the meet to see how the team race might play out.

Texas

Texas came out on top of our scored psych sheets with 480 total points to come in 60 points ahead of Florida’s 420. This was not including diving, where they are looking to score 15 points for a total of 495. This is not an insurmountable lead and they are going to need to maximize points on the sprint relays if they want to stay in the lead. This means relying heavily on transfer Chris Guiliano, who needs to be on his ‘A’ game.

The Longhorns’ biggest opportunity for point swings come in the 500 free and 400 IM. In the 500, they could score 44 points, or more, and in the 400 IM, they are projected to score 45 points. There is a lot of room here to lose leverage if they don’t maximize points.

On the opposite side, the events they could have the most improvement are the 100 and 200 butterfly. In the 100, they were projected to score 0.5 points and in the 200 they are seeded to score none. Any points they pick up here would be huge.

Texas has historically performed well at the Championships, but they have some different factors affecting them. They got a new coach this season, and while Bob Bowman has had significant success, it can take him a minute to settle into a new program. His first year at ASU, the Sun Devils finished 19th. The very next year, they jumped to 10th.

Florida

The Gators are projected to finish 2nd, but they do not have history on their side when it comes to NCAA performances. Last year, they had the biggest negative point swing from their seed, dropping more than 60 points from the psych sheets.

A significant number of their points come from relays, and they did very well in them at SECs. Relays require all four swimmers to be on, which is hard to accomplish. The Florida men also share a coaching staff with the Florida women, who did not have a good meet last week, dropping 48 points from their seed.

The only event where they are looking to score more than 30 points is the 100 fly, where they are seeded to bring in 33.5 points. Day 2 is also their strongest day with 157.5 points projected. This will be the biggest day to watch for their placement and their potential to pass Texas.

Cal

Where traditionally Florida struggles at NCAAs, Cal traditionally does significantly better. Last year, they scored 125.5 more points than they were supposed to. That amount of improvement would not help them pass Texas on it’s own based on psych sheet scoring, but it puts them within striking distance if Texas has a negative performance.

There are numerous athletes that will need to massively step up if they want to repeat this increase. Bjorn Seeliger has not had an incredible season thus far, but his individual and relay assistance will be crucial. Jack Alexy is another sprinter who will need to maximize on his seeds and on his relay performances. Yamato Okadome will also be crucial individually and on relays.

Their final day is the strongest, with a predicted 126 points, 28 of which are coming from the 200 backstroke. Day 2 is their weakest day as they are only seeded to earn 25 individual points. This will be their biggest day to add to their total if they want to contend for the team title.

Indiana

The Indiana men are seeded only half a point behind Cal, but that is before we include diving. Once diving comes into the picture, Indiana has a clear advantage over the Golden Bears with 113 predicted points on the boards.

They are going to rely heavily on their diving events, as well as their breaststroke, where they are looking to bring in 51 points in the 100 and 34 points in the 200. They will need to maximize their other events as well if they want to contend for a title, or keep Cal off their tail, including the seven events where they are projected to score less than 10 points: 500 free, 50 free, 100 fly, 400 IM, 200 free, 100 free, 200 fly.

The Indiana women had an exceptional meet last week, and they work with the same staff. They ended up bringing in an additional 82.5 points more than their seed. If that is an indication of what we can expect to see from the men’s team, we could be looking at a very exciting team race for 2nd, maybe even first.