Michigan’s 800 free relay at the Big Ten Championships was probably the most impressive single swim of the men’s conference rounds anywhere in the nation. It was the only NCAA record to go down at a men’s conference championship and knocked off a super-suited Texas squad featuring multiple Olympians off the books. With that being said upfront, Michigan has to be the heavy favorites in this race at NCAAs, but the length of the relay and the NCAA Championships event order makes seed times mean perhaps less in this event than any other.
At the conference level, the vast majority of teams competed in a 4-day (or more for you SEC folks) meet format that puts the 800 free relay on day 1, allowing most relay members to be completely fresh for what is likely their first swim of the post-season. At NCAAs, the game changes as the lineup is condensed into 3 days and the 800 free relay added to the end of Friday night’s session. That means any 200 freestyler making the “A” or “B” final will likely swim three all-out 200 frees that day between prelims, finals, and the timed finals relay at the end of the night. Don’t underestimate the wear-and-tear on a swimmer from pulling that combo – it’s the reason why so many 800 free relays failed to match their seed times at NCAAs in 2013.
It should be noted that all four of Michigan’s U.S. Open record-setters on this relay are swimming the open 200 free, and three of the four are seeded to make the final with the fourth, Connor Jaeger, a strong possibility after taking 8th last year. Still, Jaeger, Anders Nielsen, Michael Wynalda and Justin Glanda have enough of an advantage on the field, they should still likely win the event, but expecting them to match their U.S. Open record time might be a stretch. Michigan probably new this way back at Big Tens, which explains why they went after that relay so hard there. At NCAAs, a good guess is that a national record matters less to the Wolverines in this event than a key win that could serve as the centerpiece for a second-straight team title run.
This is an interesting event in that the defending champs, Florida, return all four members on this relay but are still considered underdogs. The Gators are the third seed, but didn’t use perhaps their best 200 freestyler, Pawel Werner, on the relay at SECs. On top of that, Florida is helped by the versatility of its relay pieces as only a few of their relay possibilities will have the potential for that triple-200 combo. Their top SEC splits came from Dan Wallace and Sebastien Rousseau, both entered in the 400 IM. The 400 IM isn’t any less taxing than the 200 free, but it does allow for a little more prelims coasting among top-level talents, and it comes earlier in the meet order, giving a longer break between it and the relay. Marcin Cieslak swims the 100 fly and could be a fresher possibility. Plus the Gators have freshman Mitch D’Arrigo and sophomore Corey Main, so coach Gregg Troy has the ability to go with the hot hands on the relay and sitting anyone who fails to extend their taper.
USC’s got tremendous talent in this event, but they’ll have to go up against that triple-200 combo as much as anyone. Cristian Quintero is likely among the 3 best 200 freestylers in the nation, and Dimitri Colupaev is the defending NCAA runner-up. Freshman Dylan Carter has come up big and is seeded 8th in the 200, and fellow first-year Reed Malone had a breakout Pac-12 meet. But all four are entered in the open 200, so it’s going to take some grit for the whole gang to show up big again come relay time.
The Trojans’ Pac-12 rivals California come in with the 5-seed and some definite time to drop, as do the Texas Longhorns, who won the Big 12 title unchallenged. Cal got solid conference performances out of sophomore Trent Williams and junior star Seth Stubblefield, but can probably get better splits from Long Gutierrez and Will Hamilton at nationals. Texas is looking to freshman sensation Jack Conger to blow up on the national stage, and also have Clay Youngquist to boot. While Youngquist will be coming off his own 200 free, Conger will only swim the 100 fly that night and should be relatively fresh.
Perhaps the biggest surprise out the conference rounds was NC State, which absolutely crushed the relays in what was a huge step forward for the program. They come in with the 4th seed, and the only major question still dogging the Wolfpack is how much more they have left in their tanks after going berserk at ACCs. They’ve got 3 guys ranked in the top 21 in the open 200 free (David Williams, Simonas Bilis, Jonathan Boffa), so the talent and depth are both there. Ironically, the biggest boost for NC State in this event might be if two or three of those guys miss the final in the individual race and stay fresh for the relay. Obviously the Wolfpack would rather score points in the individual event and the relay, but it might be kind of fun to see these Wolves fully fresh and hunting down their fatigued opponents at finals of the 800 free relay.
Auburn’s got an interesting mix of distance types like Zane Grothe swimming down the 200 and sprinters like James Disney-May swimming up from the shorter events, and they’re seeded 7th with a time that will likely score if they can repeat it. Plus, Grothe is the only one swimming the open 200 that day.
Tennessee was 7th last year and returns its entire relay, but they’ve got some interesting odds to overcome. Sam Rairden is slated to swim the 100 fly/100 back combo that day, and is seeded to get a second swim in both. Sophomore Sean Lehane had the split that carried this relay at SECs, but he’s swimming a brutal 200 free/100 back with just one event in between that day, so expecting another world-beating split might be a little steep. In addition, Tristan Slater is in the 400 IM Friday, though he’s got a ways to go to get a second swim there.
Don’t count out Louisville with stud 200 freestyler Joao de Lucca, but hedge your bets, as de Lucca will go ham in finals of the individual 200 and will be on his third race of the day by the time this relay rolls around. Indiana’s a trendy pick to move up, and they’ll be swimming several relay-only guys who should be fresh for this event. Big Ten opponents Wisconsin and Ohio State look like teams in the hunt, too, with Nick Caldwell leading the Badgers and Michael DiSalle heading up the Buckeyes’ team.
Top 8 picks with top times for the season:
1. Michigan – 6:09.85
2. Florida – 6:13.03
3. USC – 6:12.54
4. Cal – 6:16.41
5. Texas – 6:17.24
6. NC State – 6:15.58
7. Auburn – 6:17.36
8. Louisville – 6:19.25
Darkhorse: Stanford. The Cardinal is seeded 15th at the moment, but they’ve got some big names on this relay who should be fully primed for NCAAs if they weren’t for Pac-12s. David Nolan continues to come up big for Stanford when they need him (assuming he swims this relay), and Tom Kremer looks like a guy with time left to drop. Knowing how the Stanford women showed up big for their relays last weekend, maybe the Cardinal men will be inspired to do the same.
On Jack Conger:
He could make a lot of noise here individually. He seems like a natural 200 freestyler – he can cover the 50-500 in free and is best at the 200 distance in back. He fits into that versatile mold (Walker, Dusing, Berens, etc.) that Eddie Reese is known to turn into great relay freestylers.
On Florida, USC, and Michigan:
USC has the most potential to top their seed time. I doubt Colupaev/Quintero were fully rested for their conference meet. Plus, endurance suffers first as taper goes on – Pac-12s were only 3 weeks ago, so I would expect those guys to be the best able to handle triple-200s.*
*fun memory – at Ivy Leagues a… Read more »
… derp… final relay, sparing them a FIFTH all-out 200 free in one day.
Why doesn’t the NCAA meet run the 200MR/800FR the Wednesday night before like almost all conferences? It just seems the most logical IMO
John Sampson – while I would agree with that from a “being easier for swimmers and coaches and media” perspective, the three day format works much better for spectators and fans. ESPN will only air the last two days of it as-is, expanding to four days wouldn’t help.
Plus, I think it adds more strategy into the mix. College swimming is more about team strategy than always having the fastest swims.
Not to mention, there are the costs absorbed by either schools or the NCAA for several hundred hotel rooms for another night.
Another good point.
Like everything else: $$$$$$$$$$$
Cash Rules Everything Around Me.
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As you point out, the hard part about predicting this relay in particular is the fact that all the major conferences swim this event at the start of their championship meets while at NCAA this falls at the end of day 2. You just don’t know who is going to have what in the tank at that point, especially the 200 free guys on their third go around in the event that day.
Tough relay to call I like to top three picks…..I could see Florida and USC being close. Michigan is definitely the clear favorite with that conference time.
But really hoping for a Florida win.
It could happen. Florida dropped 1.5 seconds from their seeds last year while Michigan gained almost 2 (probably a result of that fatigue from the individual 200). I couldn’t bring myself to pick against the American record-holders, but it’s going to be a closer race than it looks right now.
Now that you mention that American record – that’s U.S. Open record, not an American record, right? Or does Anders have dual citizenship?
That’s correct. Should be U.S. Open/NCAA Record, not American Record.
You’re right, my mistake. Three Americans and the Danish Nielsen on that relay.
Just making sure – it would be interesting if the race was an all-American Michigan squad vs an all-foreign Florida squad. I’m not against non-Americans in college swimming by any means, but that would just be kinda fun.
Not that Michigan is an American squad by any means otherwise between Nielsen, Ortiz, Kamiya, Bosch, Funk, Abdel Khalik.
Or that Florida is totally foreign with deBorde, Blyzinskyj (can we call him Scrabble?), Frayler, Curby, Elliott, Omana, Signorin…
Actually, they both look more 50/50 now that I look at it!
I recall a few years back when Arizona upset the former record holders Texas, who had set the record at their conference championships … could easily happen again!
I think the Swim Swam staff ran out of ways to say “fast” this championship season, à la “de Lucca will go ham in finals of the individual 200”
It’s just been one of those years, ehh? Hard to complain about ‘too many fast swims though,’ right?
We’ve got to shake it up every now and then, keep you readers on your toes! Plus to me, “going ham” speaks more to his effort level and what it will take out of him than a simple “fast.”
SOOOOUNNNDS LIKE A GOOD Twitter conversation!!
https://twitter.com/swimswamnews/status/448871645382320128
I actually got that impression when I first read ‘go ham’. Maybe it’s because I knew how De Lucca swam last year (out in 44.3 with almost a 1.0 lead for a 1:31 overall, and then later splitting 1:34 on the relay), or maybe it’s just a regional thing.