When we were previewing the women’s meets last week, we lumped in the 200 freestyle with the sprint events, but it felt like an awkward fit. The 200 trends to grab such a unique blend of swimmers, and having a great swim in a sprint or distance event at a meet doesn’t always correlate to a great 200. It really needs its own separate coverage. A critical thing to remember: a number of the seed times in the 200 (Pawel Werner, Zane Grothe, etc) came from 800 free relay leadoffs, which were the first swims of the meet for those guys. We took that into account when looking at the field.
Last year gave us an exceptional battle between USC’s Dimitri Colupaev and Dax Hill of Texas (here is the race footage). Colupaev was out like a shot, turning in 44.46 at the 100 mark, but didn’t have enough in the tank to hold off Hill, who closed in 46.7 to overtake his USC challenger during the final 50.
All together, the swimmers who put up the seven fastest times in last year’s event are returning: Hill, Colupaev, Joao De Lucca, Frank Dyer, Clay Youngquist, and Michael Wynalda finished 1-6 last season, and Cristian Quintero of USC won the console heat in a time that would have gotten him 6th.
Let’s take a look at some of the critical guys in the field…
Double Dynamic Duos
As mentioned above, Hill is looking to defend his NCAA in this event. One important factor going against Dax repeating: with the graduation of Jimmy Feigen, he will be picking up additional relay swims on the medley relays. He’ll definitely anchor the 400 medley in prelims and finals on day one, and you could also see him on the 200 medley. Dax was a very good breaststroker in high school, and his 23.8 split from Big XII’s indicates he’s still got it. However, NCAA’s has a different event format than that conference meets, and the 200 medley is the first event of the second night, rather than being on a whole separate day. You could see coach Eddie Reese pull Dax off the 200 medley in favor of Charlie Moore, who has split 24.0 this season
Hill should have company from his teammate Clay Youngquist for the second straight season. The sophomore went a little faster than his ridiculously-quick high school time to finish 5th a year ago, but he wasn’t quite as impactful as some folks expected. He’s been very impressive for the Longhorns so far this season, however, tracking well ahead of his times (particularly his in-season swims) from a year ago.
Colupaev was plenty fast at PAC-12’s a couple weeks ago, but it’s clear he didn’t have the speed yet to shift into that extra gear. The junior mid-distance specialist is just the 14th overall seed, but he is a two-time A-Finalist in this event with a good NCAA history. Colupaev will probably hit the gas right off the blocks, pull the field along early (he was out in 45.3 in 2011, and a blistering 44.4 a year ago), and try to hold off Hill and De Lucca.
Also joining Colupaev in a fight for an A-Final spot is Trojan teammate Cristian Quintero. Quintero was only in the consolation final a year ago, but it looks like he’s developed some serious speed, thanks to another year of training with coach Dave Salo (remember, he didn’t arrive at USC until January 2012).
Wolverines… Wolverines Everywhere…
You’ll see a lot of Michigan swimmers in the middle of the circle-seeded heats this weekend, especially particularly in this event, where the Wolverines have four athletes in the top 11, and eight athletes entered overall. Michigan went 1-4 at Big Ten’s, thanks to Anders Nielsen, Wynalda, Hassan Abdel Khalik (who redshirted last season), and Justin Glanda. Wynalda cracked the top 6 a year ago, and we like his odds to be in contention again. He had a spectacular summer, sneaking into the semifinal in Omaha before ultimately breaking 1:49 to finish 10th, and followed that up with a best time in this event at Big Ten’s (along with a nasty 1:32.30 split on Michigan’s 800 free relay).
Cardinal Rule (don’t worry, it’s not Stanford)
Louisville’s Joao De Lucca finished 3rd last season, and will be in the hunt for the top spot in this event on Friday night. He has had some tremendous swims this season, including when he smashed the overall Big East record and achieved an ‘A’ qualifying standard in this event (1:32.57, seeded 1st). De Lucca’s typical race strategy has been to let the leaders take it out, hang back with the pack, and then come home like a freight train (he was out in 46-low, and then closed in 23.11 at the Big East championships).
And Don’t Forget…
Don’t forget about Notre Dame’s Frank Dyer or Arizona Wildcat Nimrod Shapira Bar-Or. Dyer burst onto the scene last season, dropping almost three full seconds from his freshman campaign to grab a spot in the top 4th. Now a junior, Dyer is looking to improve on his 1:33.71 from a year ago. While he likely fully rested for his conference meet in 2012, it looks like he has saved a lot more for NCAA’s this season.
Shapira Bar-Or is back with the Wildcats after redshirting last year to focus on his Olympic bid with his home country of Israel. He’s been flying under the radar this season, but back in 2011, he broke 1:34 to won the consol heat of the 200 free. We haven’t seen what he can do at a tapered short course meet under Eric Hansen, but we all know how well the Wildcats gear up for NCAA’s.
Picks:
- Joao De Lucca, Louisville – 1:32.57
- Dax Hill, Texas – 1:33.79
- Dimitri Colupaev, USC – 1:34.44
- Clay Younquist, Texas – 1:33.71
- Cristian Quintero, USC – 1:33.21
- Michael Wynalda, Michigan – 1:33.61
- Nimrod Shapira Bar-Or, Arizona – 1:34.86
- Frank Dyer, Notre Dame – 1:34.17
Darkhorse: Adam Kalms, Wyoming (12th seed). Why? Because he’s from Wyoming.
*Wynalda was a 1:48.3 this past summer in the 200 free
This event (my favorite) is so stacked this year, it’s ridiculous. I’ve picked Hill / De Lucca / Youngquist, but I think Quintero is *on*, he will win it.
And who knows how good Anders Nielson is….
Go WYO!