2011 WUGs Final Day Preview/Start Lists: Heated Four-Way Battle in Men's 400 Medley Relay Caps Meet

Start lists are posted for the final day of the 2011 World University Games in Shenzhen, China.

Full start lists, by event, can be seen here.

On the final day, the Americans’ chances at winning gold medals are dwindling, though they have some good opportunitiesy for minor medals.

The race of the day will be the men’s 400 medley relay that will close out the swimming portion of the Games. The Brazilians are the top seed, followed by the Japanese and the Americans, but my darkhorse pick to medal is the New Zealanders. Brazil will be the most balanced relay, anchored by Nicolas Oliveira who does who is best swimming on relays, while the Americans will have to withstand big blows on the front half of the relay with the hopes of making it up on the fly (Tim Phillips) and the freestyle (Jimmy Feigen) legs.

The Japanese swimmers have the biggest “names,” (Ryosuke Irie and Ryo Tateishi) but haven’t been swimming all that well. Their lack of a 100 freestyler shouldn’t hurt them nearly as badly here as it did at Worlds. New Zealand’s front-half will feature Gareth Kean, who won the individual 100 back, and Glenn Snyders, who took second in the 100 breaststroke (the champion of that event is now in this relay), so they should be in front at the halfway point. It will be up to Kurt Bassett, who took bronze in the 100 back but is also a fairly good butterflier, and Matthew Stanley (50.89 in the individual) to hold onto that lead. I’d pick the Brazilians to win this, followed by Japan, New Zealand, and The United States missing the podium.

Among other great racs will be the women’s 100 breaststroke. China’s Sun Ye is only the second seed, but had the fastest swim on the medley relay. If she can hold off the Americans Micah Lawrence and Annie Chandler, she would likely lock up 2nd in the overall medal standings for China with 6 golds (which would be a huge turnaround from 2009, when China didn’t win any golds).

Note: the top-seeded Darae Jeong of South Korea is entered with an incorrect seed-time. She swam a 1:09.00 at the Asian Games last year.

Both versions of the freestyle splash-and-dash were saved for the final day. In the women’s race, Belarus’ Aleksandra Herasimenia is the favorite based on both entry time and how well she’s been swimming in this meet, but either of the Australians (Cate Campbell or Marieke Guehrer) could challenge her. Guehrer has had a very up-and-down meet, but if she hits she could upset Herasimenia.

In the men’s 50 free, the final will be extremely close, with the top three seeds being separated by only a tenth in entry time. Japan’s Kenta Ito is the top seed in 22.28 (how a swimmer can go a 22.2 in the 50 and only a 49.9 in the 100, I’ll never understand). The Americans Josh Schneider (22.28) and Adam Small (22.35) are the second-and-third fastest entering the race, but in what should be a wild finish, who knows what will happen. This will be the Americans’ best shot at gold on the last day.

Note that top seeded Filip Wypych of Poland should actually be seeded with a 22.51, which would put him as about the 4th seed.

Japan’s Shiho Sakai is the class of the women’s 200 backstroke final, but with how well New Zealand has been performing you can’t count out the 2nd-seed Melissa Ingram. Missouri Tiger/Canadian Dominique Bouchard has really improved her front-half speed in this race last year, but still look out for a killer closing from her.

The men’s 1500 lacks any big names; it will probably take a faster time to medal at FINA Youth Worlds than it will here. Australia’s Wally Eggleton is the top seed.