77% of Prelims Swims Slower Than Seed Time at Trials on Wednesday

One of the themes that has been buzzing around the coaching staff at this year’s US Olympic Trials is not just how long the prelims have been, but how slow the morning swims have been. Best times were tough to come by.

We heard some pretty absurd numbers thrown around, and we were curious if they were accurate, so we had swimming superfans Reed Shimberg and Matt Salzberg (D-III swimmers from Tufts, so you know they’re smart) do some stat-tracking during this morning’s session, and the results were tough-to-swallow.

The final verdict: only 23.4% of the swimmers in this morning’s races posted best times. That means on average, in each heat, between two and three swimmers were best times, and if you pull out the men’s races those numbers get even more depressing.

Even if you control for the swimmers in the circle seeded heats, where top swimmers like Elizabeth Beisel and Michael Phelps aren’t gunning for best times, on purpose, the ratio stays nearly identical at 23.4%.

The most likely explanation is the fact that many swimmers have already tapered to hit the qualifying times, but that number still seems unusually low.

DQ’s and scratches were pulled out of the data.

Here’s what even worse, out of the 346 swims this morning, 42% didn’t make an Olympic Trials qualifying time (146 swims). If that’s not the most damning evidence yet that the Trials standards are too slow, I don’t know what is.

Women’s 200 IM
21/113 were best times (18%)
55 missed cuts
48 slower than seed, still made cut.
21 in circle seeded heats were not best times.

Men’s 200 Fly
47/134 were best times (35%)
44 missed cuts
48 slower than seed, still made cut.
21 in circle seeded heats were not best times.

Women’s 200 Free
13/99 were best times (13%)
47 missed cuts
42 slower than seed, still made cut.
24 in circle seeded heats were not best times.

 

49
Leave a Reply

Subscribe
Notify of

49 Comments
newest
oldest most voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
cupofjoe
12 years ago

Another quick point. I’ve always felt that FINA was all about the money with no regard for the athletes. I felt that U.S. Swimming was always about the athletes and that coaches kept their best interests in mine. I see a change in U.S. Swimming on this and it is not good. The money is getting so big that decisions are made based on money. The Olympic Trials are just one example. Plus I’m sure the law suits are weighing heavily on U.S. Swimming.

cupofjoe
12 years ago

I agree, money maker. As soon as TV get’s involved they control the sport. Another problem is the huge salaries the U.S. swimming people are making. The old saying “be careful what you ask for” is appropriate here. Some how there needs to be a balance between getting attention for the sport (good) and money dictating the sport (bad). Usually the money wins out every time. I don’t really know what the answer is.

Money Maker
12 years ago

Here is a thought of big business. This meet has become big business and a TV and spectator event. Do you really think USA Swimming wants this meet to be 700 – 1000 athletes? Having this meet as a sell-out with 1800 swimmers and their families is big money, big sponsors, and bigger TV deals. I don’t see them wanting to drop 50% of the participants and their families that fill the seats, dinners, and hotels in Omaha.

The myrtha pool (Quest Center) meets will bring more recognition to our sport but at what cost. I am really going to be interested to see if the business side of this sport starts to get in the way of great… Read more »

CanuckSwimmer
12 years ago

I would be interested to know what the % best times at previous OTs were to have a comparison. Though 2008 might be a little inflated with many people only wearing the suits for the first time at trials.

Lea
Reply to  CanuckSwimmer
12 years ago

I believe I read that 2008 was either 13% or 23%.

cupofjoe
12 years ago

Here’s another thought as to why the % of best times is so low at these trials (although I’m not sure it is much different than past trials): I believe the tech suit era raised many swimmers expectations for fast swimming and perhaps many of the swimmers in 2008 (and 2009) were anticipating fast swims becasue of the suit. Taking that away may have had a detrimental effect on some swimmers. Obviously the elite of the elite have the attitude “it’s not the suit but what’s in the suit” but I doubt the rank and file swimmer has that same prospective. That’s one of the qualities that separates the elite from the others.

DR. EVIL
12 years ago

I believe this three year qualifying time period is now really revealing how little improvement really goes on even at the elite level of swimming. While the qualifying times were easier than in previous Trials, this is definitely not a population of novice swimmers by any stretch of the imagination!!

DR. EVIL
12 years ago

Average Age of Male Swimmers For Events Already Contested

Hardly Youngsters – Mostly Collegiate Level Swimmers

400 IM – 19.70
400 FR – 19.82
100 BR – 21.71
200 FR – 20.84
100 BA – 20.53
200 FL – 20.01

Billc707
12 years ago

Love these stats! I noticed this trend on Day 1 in the men’s 400 free. There were 111 entrants and only 60 broke 4 minutes. (cut is 3:59.99) So almost half missed the cut completely. Maybe they were pointing to another meet this summer (nationals, Jr. Nationals) and didn’t taper. Maybe they had to shave earlier this year to achieve the cut and couldn’t do it again so soon after. I’ve got to believe it’s a fast pool (deep water, indoors, cool temp) and the atmosphere has got to be inspirational. I don’t know that the time standards are that “easy” but I agree that 1800+ entrants are too many for a meet of this importance.

Would be interesting… Read more »

LAB
Reply to  Billc707
12 years ago

I have been thinking a lot about how to minimize the meet, because I have heard from some veteran coaches that in 2008 only 20% of the swims were faster than the seed times and I am sure the same is true for NCAA’s.
I think besides the obvious of having faster cuts their are a few options: Maybe 1) have a qualifying meet for Olympic Trials, say summer nationals the year before and take the top 60-70 swimmers from each event; I think that this would make Nationals a much more important meet the summer before and swimmers could really feel that pressure, plus it would make people train and be prepared for Trials. Or…
2) Have… Read more »

aswimfan
Reply to  LAB
12 years ago

Also, shorten the qualifying period to:
from beginning of previous year to one month before the trials. (in essence, around a year and a half)

the current qualifying period is too ridiculous: ALMOST 3 YEARS!

Fever
Reply to  aswimfan
12 years ago

The longer qualifying period has been heavily demanded by elite coaches and swimmers so that they could concentrate on the “meet” rather than having to worry about making the cut.

About Braden Keith

Braden Keith

Braden Keith is the Editor-in-Chief and a co-founder/co-owner of SwimSwam.com. He first got his feet wet by building The Swimmers' Circle beginning in January 2010, and now comes to SwimSwam to use that experience and help build a new leader in the sport of swimming. Aside from his life on the InterWet, …

Read More »