What SHOULD the Mixed Medley Relays do in Finals?

by Spencer Penland 18

July 23rd, 2019 News

2019 FINA WORLD AQUATICS CHAMPIONSHIPS

  • All sports: Friday, July 12 – Sunday, July 28, 2019
  • Pool swimming: Sunday, July 21 – Sunday, July 28, 2019
  • The Nambu University Municipal Aquatics Center, Gwangju, Korea
  • Meet site
  • FinaTV Live Stream
  • Live results

MIXED 4×100 MEDLEY RELAY

  • World Record: 3:38.56, USA (Grevers/King/Dressel/Manuel), 2017
  • World Championships Record: 3:38.56, USA (Grevers/King/Dressel/Manuel), 2017
  • Defending 2017 World Champion: 3:38.56, USA (Grevers/King/Dressel/Manuel)

We have compiled a list of the fastest relay orders for the major medal contenders in the mixed medley relay, using top times from the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons. We’re keeping it to that timeframe just for the sake of simplicity and to keep it more even in terms of the context of the times. Here is a link to our mixed medley preview, which goes more in-depth and includes more countries. This post is just simply to show what the fastest combination is on paper for each of the likely medal contending relays.

Disclaimer: these are just the fastest times for each of these 4 countries added up based on times from the past two seasons. The context of who is swimming well at the meet right now, and who is focused on other events is still very much in play, and could absolutely have an effect on these lineups.

When it comes to the mixed medley relays, the most widely used strategy is to frontload the two male swimmers, having them do back and breast, and using the two female swimmers on the end, for fly and free. This strategy has become the standard because each country usually wants the best shot at getting out in front, in order to give their back half swimmers still water to swim through.

UNITED STATES

SEX SWIMMER TIME
M Ryan Murphy 51.94
W Lilly King 1:04.93
M Caeleb Dressel 50.36
W Simone Manuel 52.54
3:39.77

The United States, also our pick as the favorite for Gold, is a case where they don’t usually stick to the standard strategy. The Americans have lots of options when it comes to this relay, but the opportunity to use Lilly King on breaststroke is too good to pass up, especially considering breaststroke is likely the slowest stroke for American men currently. The US currently has both the men’s and women’s 100 back world record holders, Ryan Murhpy and Kathleen Baker. So under normal circumstances, the Americans could consider having Baker lead-off, leaving the fly and free spots for the male swimmers. However, Baker is battling injury and not in top form right now.

Caeleb Dressel is the best pick for the fly leg. Firstly, because his both his best mark from the 2017-2018/2018-2019 seasons and his lifetime best (49.86) are faster than any flyer in the world. That leaves Simone Manuel, the US women’s go-to anchor, as the anchor for this relay as well. Manuel already split 51.9 anchoring the women’s 4×100 free relay in Gwangju.

GREAT BRITAIN

SEX SWIMMER TIME
W Georgia Davies 59.12
M Adam Peaty 56.88
M James Guy 51.31
W Freya Anderson 53.61
3:41.92

Great Britain is also a case where they stray from the conventional male front half, although in contrast to the Americans, who have many options for the order, the Brits need to use Adam Peaty on the breaststroke leg. Peaty is not only the only swimmer to ever crack 57 seconds in the 100 breast, he’s the only to ever crack 58 seconds. He will, without a doubt, outsplit any breaststroker in the field massively. While James Guy could swim free instead, Great Britain doesn’t have a female flyer that could take his place to make a fair trade.

AUSTRALIA

SEX SWIMMER TIME
M Mitch Larkin 52.38
M Matthew Wilson 59.17
W Emma McKeon 56.54
W Cate Campbell 52.03
3:40.12

The Aussies could definitely take this Gold medal, especially the way they’ve swum thus far at this meet. Mitch Larkin beat American Ryan Murphy in the final of the men’s 100 back just at last night’s finals, and Matthew Wilson, took half a second off his season best in the prelims of the men’s 100 breast. Couple that with Emma McKeon, one of the fastest female flyers out there right now, and Cate Campbell, one of the greateast female anchors ever, and you’re in business. However, McKeon did scratch out of the 200 free yesterday due to illness, so her status is still up in the air.

CHINA

SEX SWIMMER TIME
M Xu Jiayu 52.17
M Yan Zibei 58.63
W Zhou Yilin 57.41
W Zhu Menghui 53.4
3:41.61

China has at least two very postive pieces heading into this relay – Xu Jiayu won Gold in the men’s 100 back last night, and breaststroker Yan Zibei is dropping time literally every time he races. That front half is definitely China’s best on paper, and is the fastest front half of any team on paper.

 

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Lopez
4 years ago

Larkin has the 2IM right before the relay so I’m guessing fem male male fem and that makes them slower.

Troy
Reply to  Lopez
4 years ago

This’ll kill Australia’s chances of gold and maybe even silver.

Becky D
Reply to  Troy
4 years ago

Comment did not age well.

manoj ghimire
4 years ago

5.5-6 sec Aus lead to US after 200, IF US lead 0.5 after fly it will be close otherwise Aus is favorite. May be Aus win by 0.1 to 0.2 sec

Tm71
Reply to  manoj ghimire
4 years ago

5.5 sec lead by Australia after 200, 1.5 sec lead by us at 300, which Manuel will not give back

Samesame
Reply to  Tm71
4 years ago

This aged well

NJones
4 years ago

#1 consideration- fastest possible formation of times regardless of order.
#2 if the above gives a couple of very very close options then absolutely MMFF in order to keep the team in the race and give the females clean water against themselves, not trying to barge thru the wave of a male in front.

US are interesting, King is much closer on brst to their males (+5.5 sec approx) and Dressel is much further in front of their female flyers (-7) so it makes sense for them to go MFMF. What doesn’t make sense is to even think of using one of their female backstroke even though they’ve got 3 of the best 5 or 6 in the world.… Read more »

IHB
4 years ago

It’s not about waves, 2 women at the back could get as low as 3:37. It is the formation for the best time.

Becky D
4 years ago

Unpopular opinion: The mixed relays are a distraction, and just clutter up the schedule. Such a small number of teams can put together a competitive line up that it’s just a “too bad for you” event for everyone else. Yeah, they were fun to watch a couple times, but the novelty has already worn off. What’s next? T-shirt relays?

MY MOM!
Reply to  Becky D
4 years ago

It isn’t mandatory.

John
Reply to  Becky D
4 years ago

Distracted from what? Watch them or don’t. It’s not like any of the events are run concurrently with other events.

Becky D
Reply to  John
4 years ago

It’s a couple of things that have gotten under my skin.
(1) Given the complex issues of gender and sport these days, the gamesmanship related to “MMFF” and “MFMF” seems to be occuring in an alternate universe.
(2) With the complete swap out of squads between prelims and finals, it starts to look merely like a way to fluff out personal medal counts. What better way to get a swimmer to an unprecedented number of golds than to create new events for which they on need to swim once?

Tea rex
4 years ago

Italy has been having a great meet so far. The women are stronger than the men, but I expect a finals slot for them

Verram
4 years ago

sorry got distracted by all the typos 🙂

did you call emma McKeon fat?

200 SIDESTROKE B CUT
Reply to  Verram
4 years ago

Nope. They meant to say: Emma McKeon is PHAT.

anon
4 years ago

Emma Mckeon, one of the fatest female flyers.. 🤣

Samesame
Reply to  anon
4 years ago

Australia won gold. Yeah,…jokes on you Anon