American Kate Douglass broke the world record in the women’s 200 breaststroke (SCM) twice during the 2024 Swimming World Cup, delivering a jaw-dropping performance in her second swim. Douglass’ time of 2:12.72 was simply astounding, due in part to the fact that the previous world record, held by Rebecca Soni at 2:14.16, had been on the books for 15 years.
The swim from Douglass made her 1.44 seconds faster than the second-fastest performer of all time.
Did this performance make Douglass’ 200 breast the most dominant SCM world record on the books, relative to the rest of the world?
Swimming Stats’ Instagram page has published the most dominant SCM world records in terms of the % difference between the world record and the second-fastest performer of all time. An interesting note is that the top world records were highly affected by the results of the 2024 World Cup, both for men and women.
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As it turns out, Douglass’ 200 breaststroke world record does stand atop the list with the biggest percentage gap to the second-fastest performer. The 1.44 seconds that separates Douglass and Soni represents 1.37%, the highest among all world records, including men and women. Usually, differences above 1% are considered truly outstanding, and only one other women’s events has a difference above 1%: Katie Ledecky‘s 1500 freestyle.
In men’s events, two world records have differences of 1.28%: Tomoru Honda (JPN) in the 200 butterfly with his 1:46.85 and Caeleb Dressel (USA) in the 100 IM with his blistering time of 49.28 from the ISL. Honda edges ahead for the #1 spot due to topping Dressel in the third decimal digit: 1.284% x 1.282%.
Honda’s world record was groundbreaking, having improved Daiya Seto‘s previous world record by 1.39 seconds in 2022. In the same swim, Honda became the first man to crack both the 1:48 and 1:47 barriers.
But this ranking was also affected by the results of the 2024 World Cup. In Singapore, Leon Marchand set a new European Record in the 100 IM in 49.92, becoming the second swimmer to crack the 50-second barrier in a time 1.28% slower than Dressel. But, if it wasn’t for Marchand, the second-fastest performer in history would be Vladimir Morozov at 50.26 in 2018, and the percentage difference to Dressel would be a stunning 1.95%. No wonder: Dressel was a full second faster than Morozov in a 100-meter race.
There are two other men’s world records with differences above 1%: Emre Sakci‘s 50 breaststroke and newly minted Noe Ponti‘s 50 butterfly world record from Singapore – he is 0.24 seconds faster than Nyls Korstanje, the second-fastest swimmer ever from that same race. Which, in a 50-meter race, is a considerable margin.
Of course, there are many things to consider in a more detailed analysis. Would Honda’s 200 butterfly world record standalone if Marchand, the Olympic champion, had swum the event in his prime shape? It’s also possible that Honda wouldn’t even be the world record holder. For a more in-depth analysis, we could compare the world record to the average of the top 10 all-time performers, for example. This is the subject of an upcoming article.
Interesting. I’ve been toyng with a similar concept for NCAA records with percentage difference from the cut lines and fastest active non record holder performer to see if there is a correlation that might predict likelihood of a record falling. I think the data is relatively available for NCAAs to let you test the models vs history. Sure some records come out of nowhere but there feels like there are trends with the cuts getting closer to records and the closest active to the record relative to the cuts. Really it’s just a multi variable improvement tend.
I’d also love to have easy access to X number of swims and swimmers under certain times per year to measure event… Read more »