SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers whether this year’s Texas Longhorns team could score more than 600 points at the NCAA Championships:
RESULTS
Question: Will the Texas men score over or under 600 points at the 2017 NCAA Championship meet?
- Over – 52%
- Under – 48%
Voters were almost exactly split on whether Texas could break the 600-point barrier, with just 27 more votes going to the “over” than the “under.”
600 points would be a major hurdle in the NCAA format. It hasn’t been done on the men’s side since Auburn in 2004, and only three teams have ever broken 600 points at NCAAs. That list includes Auburn in 2003 (609.5) and 2004 (634) and Stanford back in 1992 (632 points). Interestingly enough, Texas was the runner-up in both the 2003 and 1992 Championships.
The last two seasons, Texas has finished in the mid-500s, scoring 528 in 2015 and 541.5 at last year’s meet. Some historic teams have just missed 600 over the past few decades. Texas’s all-time great run through the early 2000s produced 538 points in 2000, 597.5 in ’01 and 512 in ’02. Auburn’s 2007 team scored 566 and its 2009 team notched 526, while the 2012 Cal program won with 535.5. Further back. Stanford earned 599 points back in 1998.
Looking at things another way, 600 points spread out over the 21-event meet format comes out to about 28.5 points per event. A few ways a team could earn about that many points in an individual event: winning both the A and B Finals (29 points), placing two swimmers in the A final (an average of about 29.5 points) or placing 1 in the A final and 3 in the B (an average of about 28.5 points). For a relay, it would take a 5th-place finish or higher to earn that amount of points.
Keep in mind that those would need to be average finishes across all 21 events. Texas would almost certainly outscore the 28.5 point mark in butterfly (where they scored 47 in the 100 and 37 in the 200 last year), but would probably struggle to keep pace in the breaststrokes (where they scored zero points in the 100 and 20 in the 200 last year). The Longhorns have a shot to win a number of relays, which boosts that total significantly. But even for a program as loaded as the current Texas team, scoring 600 points is a massive benchmark, and one made even harder by the presence of a few other top-tier programs, most notably Cal, NC State and Florida.
Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks voters to weigh in on who will win this weekend’s Auburn-Alabama rivalry dual meet:
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Several scorers may not swim this year….
Townley Haas wins 100 free starting from inside the pool so he can forgo the start and get to the surface quicker. This technique will revolutionize sprinting and forever referred to as “the Doge”. Jack Conger loses the 100 Fly by 0.01 to Son a singapore, and his rage causes a transformation to the legendary Super-Saiyan, wins the 200 Fly in 1:35.0. John Shebat gets confused on the 400MR and goes 43.0 not realizing he’s racing the world record holder in that event. Clark Smith takes out his mile in a time that would final in the 500 free. Brett Ringold defeats the Joker in unarmed combat. Will Licon wins his final collegiate race (2 breast) and proceeds to congratulate… Read more »
Meerkat
Also schooling actually turns into himself from Beijing when he met Michael phelps but then goes on to win 100 fly in 42.5 after breaking through the sound barrier every dolphin kick
50/100 Free- Caeleb
200/500 Free- Townley
1650 Free- Clark
100/200 Back- Ryan
100/200 Breast- Will
200 IM- Will
400 IM- Chase
100 Fly- Joe
200 Fly- KING CONG
Relays- TEXAS \m/
Quite a feat if UT scores over 600 considering only 9.9 scholarships. Or am I missing something??
Im not even sure Texas will win this year much less get to 600.
Who do you think beats them? Cal has a great freshman class but I don’t think they will be at the quality that is needed to dethrone Texas come March. Next year will be a definite battle though.
They only lost Murray and Ellis, they good
Based on the recent whining on here and on twitter I’d guess swimmer is either from Indiana NC State or North Carolina and assumes his team is gonna win instead
Will Licon is most definitely my favorite swimmer. Incredible composure after trials, and seems like a genuine hard worker.
I think akaram will won the mile, but Felix aubeck wins the 500.
Licon in the 100 and 200 breast and maybe 2im, along with Kalisz.
One of the easiest one to pick is Haas in the 2free……maybe the 500 too?
My winners predictions for men’s events
100/200 back:Murphy
200 IM: gonna get downvoted but Murphy
50/100: dressel
100 breast:Fabian
200 breast: Licon but could go to Fabian
100/200 fly: Schooling
400 IM: Kalisz
1500: Akaram
500: Haas
I agree, except I’d pick Conger in 2fly and Clark 500/1650. I noticed you don’t have 2free but I’m gonna go out on a limb and say you’d pick Townley?
Forgot to add 200 free obviously I give it to Townley
I want to see what Conger can do now in the 500
I have a hunch that Murphy swims 5 relays this year and skips the 200 IM.
Trying to think who else could swim the 800 free: Gutierrez, Jensen, and Seliskar and probably someone else can go a 1:33 at least. No need to use Murphy there. He’s way more valuable in the IM and I assume Cal will try to go for maximizing points to see how close they can get to texas.
Aukai
I think Josa with Gutierrez, Jensen, and Seliskar would be very strong too. He’ll join the roster in the spring.
Coan (1:33) at Pac 12s 2016
I bet Licon swims the 1 breast at NCAAs since he almost definitely coulda won it last year and kalisz could drop like a 3:31 or something
Fixed it:
100/200 back: Shebat (Murphy gets DQ-ed – shoulders wider than lanes)
200 IM: Will Licon
50 Free: Dressel
100 Free: Conger (Dressel’s tattoo gets infected right before finals)
200 Free: Townley
500 Free: Townley
1650 Free: Clark
100 Breast: Will Licon
200 Breast: Will Licon
100/200 fly: Schooling
400 IM: Litherland
Haas in 200 free as well? I also wouldn’t forget Clark Smith. If he doesn’t, ahem, choke, he’ll be a huge factor in the 500 and the 1650. Licon might give 100 breast a try as well, especially with Kalisz back in the 400 IM. 200 IM… battle between Murphy and Licon? I think Licon reels him in on the back half, maybe under 1:40???