SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.
Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers which swimmer is most likely to sweep their respective 100 and 200-meter events at next summer’s Olympics:
Question: Which swimmer currently dominating the World Cup has the best chance of winning the 100/200 double in Paris?
RESULTS
- Kaylee McKeown (women’s BK) – 50.5%
- Qin Haiyang (men’s BR) – 45.0%
- Zhang Yufei (women’s FLY) – 4.0%
- Siobhan Haughey (women’s FR) – 0.5%
This poll came with the caveat that both Kaylee McKeown and Qin Haiyang are currently favored to sweep their respective 100 and 200 specialty events at the Paris Olympics, but if you could only back one, who would it be?
Both are coming off historic 50/100/200 sweeps at the 2023 World Championships, and McKeown really hasn’t lost a major international final in either the 100 or 200 back since 2019.
She pulled off the 100/200 backstroke double in Tokyo, and has consistently improved since, setting a new world record in the 200 back (2:03.14) earlier this year and then lowering the all-time marks in both the 50 back (26.86) and 100 back (57.33) at the final leg of the World Cup in Budapest last week.
Qin didn’t come completely out of nowhere with his dominant performance at the World Championships, but he regained his form (and then drastically improved it) in a short amount of time.
At the 2022 World Championships, he was 22nd in the 200 breast (2:13.35), and though he didn’t race the 100 breast individually, he did split 59.3 on China’s medley relay. At the Tokyo Olympics, he was DQed in the 200 breast after initially posting a time of 2:08.48.
Fast forward to the 2023 Worlds, and Qin steamrolled the men’s breaststroke field, winning the 50 breast (26.29) by three-tenths, the 100 breast (57.69) by more than a second and then upsetting Olympic champion Zac Stubblety-Cook in the 200 breast, taking out the Australian’s world record in the process in a time of 2:05.48.
In a tight vote, McKeown came out on top at 50.5 percent, which feels warranted given that she’s consistently performed on the international stage for the last four-plus years. In Fukioka, Regan Smith gave her a much closer race than anyone did for Qin, but McKeown’s consistency is likely what pushed her over the top.
For his part, Qin has been incredibly consistent this year, but he will need to continue to be at his absolute best with Stubblety-Cook in the 200 breast and potentially Adam Peaty in the 100 breast hunting him down in 2024.
Qin earned 45 percent of votes, while his countrymate Zhang Yufei picked up some of her own in women’s fly, having come within five one-hundredths of pulling off the sweep at the Tokyo Olympics.
The defending Olympic champion in the 200 fly, Zhang is the reigning world champion in the 100 fly, making her a prime candidate to pull off the double in Tokyo. However, there’s no shortage of talent in either race.
Also rolling over the field at the World Cup was Siobhan Haughey, who won silver in the women’s 100 and 200 free in Tokyo. She claimed silver in the 100 free at the 2023 Worlds, but was 4th in the 200, and both events are top-heavy heading into Paris, led by Australia’s Mollie O’Callaghan, who doubled up in Fukuoka and set a new world record in the 200.
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I don’t think Qin will win the 200.
Who you got beating him?
ZSC
Can’t see ZSC winning if he can’t at minimum become a 58-mid guy in the 100, as is Qin has way, way too much speed.
Let’s wait and see.
Not sure if you’re just saying this because you can or if you have any basis for it, but it’s pretty clear that it’s just not gonna happen. First of all, there’s so many reasons on paper where Qin is heavily favored over ZSC. Qin’s personal best is half a sec faster than ZSC. He also set that best this yr while ZSC did it last yr. Qin clearly looks to be on a greater trajectory of improvement than ZSC. He’s also won the 200 brst at 4 international competitions this yr to ZSC’s 1 with a silver.
Also, I’m curious, are you trying to say that Qin will falter and therefore ZSC can win, or are you saying Qin… Read more »
Would make sense that Kaylee slightly edges out haiyang for the double, although both are really favorites for their 2 individual events. It’s a bit tougher for Yufei, but I’d argue she’s the favorite in her 2 events as well. It’s pretty obvious that she’s trying out different race strategies in the 100 with the goal of breaking the world record, esp evident in her swim at asian games and the budapest stop of world cup. I think she’d be the one to do it, if it happens in Paris. She’s also effectively the textile world record holder in the 200, and has stated in interviews she has not been training for the 200 since tokyo, but will def be… Read more »
Zhang is an interesting one. She’s ranked 4th in the 200 this year, but she does have the fastest PB and it’s clear she wasn’t concentrating on it for a while.
She is probably favourite in the 100 but the 100 was really weak this year. I expect at least 3 mid 55s next year so not sure this year counts for much.
As you say, if someone was going to do the double she’s basically the only one realisfI ally capable of it
MOC- Australian, Commonwealth, 2xWorld Champ in the 100m ….not to be sneezed at. That is some record. She has a way of winning- even a 200m when Titmus does a 01:53 flat!
Qin’s chances of winning the double is super dependant on the state of Peaty by the olympics.
It is, but it’s not as much of a toss up as people would think. For one, Peaty still has to qualify for the GB team, or at least I assume he has to. If he doesn’t put up a time that looks like it would challenge Qin at trials, then it’s not expected that he would beat Qin. That is, going into Paris it is going to be clear cut.
Also, can Peaty get back to his old form? It’s certainly possible, but very very difficult. He’s 5 years older than when he set his world record, 3 years older than when he won in Tokyo. Based on Qin’s trajectory of improvement, even if we’re being modest he… Read more »
Yeah I agree with pretty much all of this. That’s my point?
The 100 brst is anything from Qin being an unbackable favourite to being completely unwinnable depending on how close Peaty can get to his WR. I don’t think anyone could do more than baselessly speculate on peaty at this point.
Not sure I would call a further 0.4 second improvement from Qin ‘modest’ though. It is likely the sort of improvement he would need to make for the race to be winnable without Peaty completely failing to find form though. I’d be pretty surprised if Peaty was significantly slower than Tokyo next year.
Watched the voting on the pole change as Kaylee kept getting faster and faster at the world cup lol.
Also while Kaylee isn’t head and shoulders above Regan time wise she’s consistently at or near her best when it counts when the can’t unfortunately can’t quite be said for Smith, and that clockwork consistency makes it hard to bet against her. While Haiyang has seperated himself further from his peers time wise, there’s still the wildcard of Peaty. Haiyang has been fast enough that even Peaty at his very best isn’t an absolute given, but I also think it’s foolish to just write him out of the conversation after he’s dominated the event for so long.
2016-19 Peaty smokes Qin 11/10 times
Molly will do the 100 / 200 standing on her ears . She is now coming into prime time with her age
It’s hard to believe she’s still a teenager.
I wonder how much she can improve.
Being elite when you’re young doesn’t guarantee continued success! I am very hopeful MOC will be a historical talent but being cocky before it happens is never smart
True, no one ever says that about McIntosh though?
McIntosh is 2 years younger tho
Kaylee will sweep the backstroke gold medals in Paris. She’s proven with monotonous regularity that she can beat anyone in the major backstroke events and is getting only faster. I strongly expect that this whole will Regan beat Kaylee debate will turn out to be as anticlimactic as the will Summer beat Arnie in Fukuoka one.
Cometh the hour, cometh the champion.
The example you use is interesting because they had opposite outcomes: Kaylee was the favourite and WR holder going in and won, while Summer was the favourite and WR holder going in and lost
Both are looking set to repeat to be honest. I went with Kaylee because of her consistency while Qin has just had his big breakout.
Hard to bet against Kaylee, setting herself up for a triple double.
While Haiyang has had a great year, Kaylee has had an even greater 4 years.
Ooh this is a good one! I think it’s more likely McKeown is PRing next year than Qin – breaststroke just way more likely to come and go, and McKeown has been wildly consistent the last few years while Qin’s real new at being this fast.
..buuut I think Regan Smith has a better chance of beating Peak McKeown than anyone in the breaststrokes does at sniping Peak Qin.
I’d prolly pick Qin just b/c I’m higher on Smith than most. (And I like it when the Aussies yell at me. They get so mad!)
I’m intrigued: do you think Kaylee is going to underperform and Smith will sneak a win or do you think Smith will break Kaylee’s world records?
Either! Smith absolutely has the potential to break ’em. I don’t think it’s super likely at this point in this season – McKeown has really been on fire, of course, and we’ve only seen that one big SCY fly swim from Smith – but anyone that thinks it’s impossible is underrating Regan Smith. (Whatever Bowman’s doing is working for a lot of swimmers with a lesser pedigree than hers.)
I don’t even think McKeown needs to significantly “underperform” for Smith to win either in the “sneak” scenario.
(I mostly said it in the comments of the Olympic Storylines post, WCs 2023 of course was dominated by McKeown but it was still so much closer than it’s made out to be.)… Read more »
Interesting.
I agree with you that worlds was closer than a lot of people seem to think it was but also it wasn’t as close as you seem to think.
In the 100, Kaylee swam faster than Smith’s PB and won by 0.25. In a 100, 0.25 isn’t that close and Kaylee swam a time faster than anyone else in history has. Kaylee’s PB is now 57.33 and owns the 5 fastest times in history. For Smith to win this, she would basically have to set a new PB AND Kaylee would need to be off her best. I haven’t seen any evidence to suggest that will happen.
Looking just from a PB perspective, your POV makes sense. Regan matches… Read more »
We’re not separated by much in our opinions here.
The only race at Worlds that was a decisive McKeown win imo was the 200.
This is where that medley relay is super discounted by people. Smith was faster! It happened, I saw it! (I think I commented the likelihood of it happening prior to the race in one of the liveblogs, lol.)
The context I’m considering more than most is a massive improvement by Smith. I’m definitely higher on that than most. McKeown’s already made some leaps this season, so it does massively depend on what Smith does in-season to idk, give me a little more credibility… Read more »
2022 Budapest World Championship – Women’s Medley Relay Final:
Kylie Masse thrashed Kaylee McKeown and was faster than Regan Smith.
Using your logic and common sense, Kylie Masse would have won 100 back at Fukuoka, right? Right?
After all, she was also won 2019 worlds in 100 back and thrashed Kaylee McKeown.
Surely she won 100 back in Fukuoka, right?
I need to offer you the actual bet – if Kaylee McKeown wins both the 100/200 back in Paris, I’ll pay you $1.
If anyone else beats her in either event, you have to pay me $100,000.
(My favorite part of the “Masse was faster in the medley in 2022!” pwnage attempt is that it literally helps my point. The point isn’t what the exact finish order in whatever random final is, it’s that each of these swimmers’ll swim a range of times at their taper meets and that those times often overlap! If it still doesn’t make sense lemme know and I’ll draw some bell curves, lol.)
Glad you finally confirmed that Mackeown chance to win 100/200 back in Paris is greater than what you said yesterday when you said Mackeown and Smith has 50:50 chance to win backstroke in Paris
Find the post where I said it was 50:50 in Paris. Show me where I said it.
(Here, I’ll help you: I said the 50/100 backs last year were prolly somewhere b/w 55-60:45-40 McKeown. They just happened to go 2-0 individually to McKeown.)
You’re right, we aren’t separated by that much. These appear to be the sticking points:
1. Smith needs to improve
Surprisingly, Smith’s best time in the 100 has gotten slower almost every year since her record.
2019: 57.57
2021: 57.64
2022: 57.65
2023: 57.68
I’m not saying she’s on a downward trajectory because she has been more consistently close to her best, especially this year. However, she will need to be faster next year to have a chance at winning. You seem to be assuming she will be, which the evidence doesn’t support.
2. Kaylee will need to get slower
Kaylee has been on fire and steadily improving, with the exception of last year where she… Read more »
Are you through facts at steve nolan?
Steve Nolan: this is sorcery!
Braden’s out here making joke comments about how everyone thinks they know me, but here’s this jamoke literally making up things I would say. (Sorcery??” C’mon I’m not some D&D dweeb.)
Find where I said it’s 50:50 in Paris. Find it!!
1) I meaaan, I’m saying “slower” is tough there lol. (This is where I’m putting all those times “within the margin of error” for those kind of swims.) Barely a tenth of variance is p good!
2) Yeah I think this is where people get stuck, and assume everyone always goes their best times all the time. I already mentioned bell curves here once, because jesus h christ what is wrong with me, but I think that’s where the difference in “Kaylee has to get worse” trips people up. She can be in 56.5 shape next summer, but if Smith goes 57.0 and McKeown crunches her finish, whoopsie daisy Smith wins. The range of times McKeown’s most likely to… Read more »
Oh no, I crunched this one. Whoops, y’all know what I mean and I’m sure everyone will interpret my finger whoopsies with as much good faith as they always do.
1. I agree. I wasn’t trying to paint her as declining, more that she needs to improve and she hasn’t made any improvements in 4 and a half years. And within those years, it’s not like she had a dip and then went on an upward trajectory. She’s been consistently closer to her best but her top times have been stagnant. I recall Coleman saying McKeown is “always slower at international meets” because she went 0.02 off her WR in Tokyo lol. Clearly what each person considers a significant amount of time difference is subjective.
2. I totally get this 100%. And I have never said Kaylee is guaranteed to win. I think a key point of contention is what… Read more »
I think this is true, too – going back to my stupid bell curves, McKeown’s would be a lot “tighter” than someone like Smith. (Trying to think of a good example of someone with a massively wide span – lol prolly MA’s 200 IM. He might’ve hit that WR, but also he could go 2:02.)
… Read more »You: Smith absolutely has the potential to break ’em
So, why hasn’t she?
In the words of Bill Parcells, ”Potential means you haven’t done anything yet.”