In this Gold Medal Minute takeover of the SwimSwam Podcast with 3-time Olympic Champion Ryan Murphy, we cover a lot of topics.
Unpacking 2017-2021
2017 World Champs – Murphy was off because he achieved everything he wanted at the 2016 Olympics. In ’17, he lost a bit of focus. He was still fast, but at the top, he learned that year that he has to be fully engaged.
2018 Pan Pacs – when Murphy hit his 200 back PB (1:53.57), he rested a full six weeks. Murphy has big man strength. He knows he needs 5-6 weeks of taper.
2019 World Champs – Murphy said he felt great, was ready to race, but he simply had a bad meet against great competitors.
2021 Olympic Trials – Murphy was rested 3 weeks. He felt confident and in control–exactly where he needed to be. Of course Murphy won the 100 back (52.33) and 200 back (1:54.4).
Who Does Murphy Fear?
Murphy said he fears no one, but he does respect his competitors, and he unpacks them in this podcast.
Raising Talent
I thought Shaine Casas would make the Olympic Team, and he got close, netting 3rd in the 100m backstroke (52.76) at U.S. Olympic Trials. Murphy said he followed Shaine’s success, and that new talent like Shaine gave him a sense of urgency in training this past year.
ISL
Murphy talks about his post Olympic plans. At this point in time, he has been retained by LA Current’s General Manager Lenny Krayzelburg for Season 3.
2021 OLYMPIC GAMES PREDICTIONS
100 back? I see a repeat of the 2016 Olympics. Ryan Murphy dips under 52 seconds, edging China’s Jiayu Xu for the gold. Russian Evgeny Rylov takes the bronze. (And, yes, this is shot in the dark. I could see Jiayu, Rylov, Kolesnikov and/or Murphy make a mistake and missing the podium. It’s going to be a tight race. Would be interesting if upstart Hunter Armstrong makes the podium.)
200 back? Evgeny Rylov wins. Rylov’s 1:52.9 to 1:53 low. With 3 more weeks of rest Murphy tops his PB, 1:53.4 for silver. The UK’s Luke Greenbank makes the podium with a 1:54 low.
4×100 Medley Relay? I want to see Team USA earn gold. Getting past the U.K squad will be tough. For Team USA I think Michael Andrew has to put down a 57+ in the 100 breast, and Zach Apple has to split 46.8 on the anchor. (Apple was a 46.8 split at 2019 World Champs.) I’m leaving it there, because it’s not about what I think. It’s all about what you think. I really want to know your thoughts on the 4×100 medley Olympic final…
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This is a Gold Medal Media production presented by SwimOutlet.com. Host Gold Medal Mel Stewart is a 3-time Olympic medalist and the co-founder of SwimSwam.com, a Swimming News website.
Opinions, beliefs and viewpoints of the interviewed guests do not necessarily reflect the opinions, beliefs, and viewpoints of the hosts, SwimSwam Partners, LLC and/or SwimSwam advertising partners.
For 4x100m medley relay, can USA do strategy in order that they won’t race side by side with GBR ?
Let GBR take the 4 lane, USA in lane 6 or 2 so that Duncan Scott won’t be able to surf on Apple’s wave.
Jiayu Zu is declining. So here is the top 3 :
For 4x100m medley relay, because Michael Andrew has shown very good achievement in breaststroke and Zach Apple is also very good in freestyle, USA should win the gold.
5-6w taper?
6 weeks before the start of the games was day1 of US trials. If he’s already been tapering for 3 weeks at trials, how’s he going to get his 6 weeks?
Is it possible to be too jacked? Dude makes Dressel look scrawny.
Murphy for the role of Tarzan!
Townley time or Koch coach?
“My shoulders are too big”
he is basically analysing the russians
Your account name… lol
So are they competing as Russia or “Olympic athletes from Russia” at Tokyo ?
It’s ROC – Russian Olympic Committee this time.
Good podcast! American backstrokers come across as unusually chilled and Murphy is no exception.
In terms of predictions …
In the 100 – If I were Murphy I think I’d ‘fear’ Kolesnikov the most. He’s just got the most raw speed. He’s also massive and he’s the youngest of the main contenders. He has the most weapons for me. If anyone is going to do something jaw dropping I’d say it’s Kolesnikov. I’m going with Kolesnikov for the win.
(Gold Medal Mel obviously has KK outside the medals though so I’m almost certainly wrong!)
200 is less competitive for me and should really be a head-to-head between Rylov and Murphy. I’ll go with Murphy to earn redemption from… Read more »
People tend to be more excited about young stars and sometimes forget how good some veterans are.
In my opinion Rylov>Kolesnikov
The probability of Rylov winning 200 >>The probability of Kolesnikov winning 100.
Rylov currently tops the world rankings in both backstroke events, leading by 1s in the 200. He has better techniques, better backstroke range (can swim super fast from 50 to 200), better stamia, and better race strategies than his young countryman. He’s proven to be a racer from time to time. He edged out Kolesnikov in 100 at Russian trials, and then Greenbank in 200 at Euros (while being untapered). He has consistently gone 1:53 low in 200 back since 2017, winning every major championships.
If… Read more »
Thanks for the reply. What you say makes sense – I certainly think you’re right that there’s a tendency to get over-excited about the younger swimmers. It’s arguably the case however that it can be be under-estimated how difficult and rare it is to sustain a peak / improve. You’re right though that the evidence at the moment does point very slightly toward Rylov.
The more I think about these races to be honest, the more I have no clue at all what’s going to happen!
Murphy is already a 3x Olympic champion. He’s got no pressure
Yes pvdh- I’d agree that’s a factor. Partly because of that – and this isn’t really scientific at all – but more so than most, Murphy for me exudes the confidence of an Olympic champion. I suppose there’s a few swimmers who have folded a little in the last year, there’s a few that have steadily continued their progression and then there’s a select few who seem to really raise their game in Olympic year.
He hasn’t raised his game yet to his 2016 times. He’s like many Olympians (Phelps being the most dramatic example) who truly peak at one Olympics, fall back over the ensuing years, and come back to nearly their top form.
But Murphy top 200 back is not enough to beat rylov (locthe textile probably gone)
So Andrey Minakov is supposed to anchor for Russian team, right ? But, why does he turn to or more focus on freestyle, while he was the silver medalist in 100m fly at WC 2019 with 50.8 when he was 17 years old ?
Currently, in 100m fly he had 51.17, whereas Mikhail Vekovischev had 51.40.
Vladislav Grinev was the main man in freestyle for Russia at WC 2019, and currently still has good record with 47.85, not far behind Minakov with 47.74.
Oh, I forget Kliment Kolesnikov. He has 47.31 in 100m free.
So if I were the team manager, I would go with :
Italy are really interesting, based on their individual records :
I think he could win the 100 but the 200 is Rylov’s to lose.
I think Rylov is the only one who could double. Since last worlds when he hit 51.97 on the mixed medley and already 52.12 this year.
…agreed on this, Rylov is the man to beat….but I think Murph will edge him in one of those events.
100 back is definitely likely.
In 200 back he needs Rylov to underperform (like what Larkin did in 2016) if he wants to win.
which is less likely given how consistent rylov has been over the last 6 years