With the 2016 Rio Olympics disappearing in the rearview mirror, the Swimnex crew that predicted Rio’s winning times is looking forward to Tokyo.
Swimnex is a predictive model that uses current meet results to project the times that will appear at the next Summer Olympics in three years. Swimnex is the brainchild of Joshua Neuloh and Thomas Kothe, and appeared on SwimSwam on several occasions leading up to the Rio Olympics.
Now, they’ve updated their model to look forward to the 2020 Olympics, and have once again been kind enough to share their data with SwimSwam. We’ve included it below, along with Swimnex’s press release explaining their system.
Here’s a look back at Swimnex predictions for Rio:
Swimnex press release:
Following the successful Swimnex™ table 2016 which predicted the 200m freestyle race by Katie Ledecky with a difference of 1/100 of a second or forecast the medals in the 100m backstroke women by an average error of just 0.1%, prognostications have now been published for the Tokyo Olympics 2020. Joshua Neuloh and a team of experts managed this time to recalculate over 40.000 individual races, over 1600 relay performances and over 600.000 calculations in addition to 1248 new races from the Rio Olympics in just six month and create a new Swimnex™ table. The Swimnex™ table is based on a mathematical algorithm predicting future performances at the Tokyo Olympics 2020.
Combining cutting-edge science with practical knowledge from the pool deck, the Swimnex™ table answers the question, which will be on everyone´s mind for the next four years. What makes it into the semi final, final, win a medal or leave everyone behind at the Tokyo Olympics?
The Swimnex™ table shows the required estimated minimum time to reach the respective stage at the 2020 Olympics, including individual races and relays. Although the Swimnex™ table is regularly updated based on past results and other covariates (technical aids etc.), the estimation is very robust close to the actual event. Only in the case of outstanding individual performances the algorithm alters accordingly. Overall, it determines the progress of swimming performances within a standard range of probability.
The Swimnex™ table is provided to coaches and their swimmers, national head coaches and everyone else, who wants to know the first event at the Tokyo Olympics 2020 marked with “World Record”.