You’ve read what we have to say about the predicted winners in swimming competition at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games, but what does Vegas think is going to happen?
Odds gathered from DraftKings; they may vary slightly from site-to-site.
The Paris 2024 Olympic Games have the most-robust swimming wagering odds that the sport has ever seen. We were able to easily find odds on everything but the medley relays and 800 free relays – though current odds are only available for winners (no podium options like they have in horse racing).
How do Odds Work?
There are full descriptions (and calculators) at sites like this, but basically, the lower the number, the more likely the prediction is to happen. An odds of -110 is essentially a “50/50” chance; positive numbers are less than 50/50, and more negative numbers are more than 50/50 chances.
As those numbers change, so do the payouts. Numbers like the -900 on the Australian women’s 400 free relay odds mean that it is extremely-likely to happen. A $10 wager would return your original $10 + $1.11 in profit. In cases like that, the odds are basically saying “we think there’s some small chance of a DQ, and otherwise that’s what’s going to happen.”
Other races have no clear favorite, with any winner having a positive odds number, meaning any bet will return more than the original bet in profit.
Where Does SwimSwam and Vegas Disagree?
- SwimSwam has less confidence in the two most recent World Record holders and top seeds Pan Zhanle and David Popovici than Vegas does.
- Vegas thinks that the defending World Champion Ryan Murphy is going to win gold, while SwimSwam picked the World Record holder Thomas Ceccon.
- Vegas is predicting the World Record holder Adam Peaty to win gold, while SwimSwam predicted the defending World Champion Qin Haiyang to win.
- In the 200 fly, SwimSwam thinks that Kristof Milak will rebound from his tumultuous year to win gold, while Vegas thinks that the hometown hero Leon Marchand of France will win.
100 backstroke will present 2022 champ Ceccon, 2023 Champ Murphy, 2024 Champ Armstrong..do not forgot whether you like it or not 2024 doha also was a world championships….
“Vegas thinks that the defending World Champion Ryan Murphy is going to win gold, while SwimSwam picked the World Record holder Thomas Ceccon.”…
Finke 800 free
Kos 200 Back
Milak 200 Fly
Qin 100 Breast
Chalmers 100 Free
Best Men’s value bets
I like Titmus 200free and 800 free as well as Mckeown for 100 back as well as Douglass 200 breast for value bets on women’s side
USA women’s free relay also good value bet
Value picks:
Haughey 100 free
MOC 200 free
Ledecky 800 free
Huske 100 fly
Mckeown 100 back
Chalmers/Alexy 100 free
Short 400 free
Finke 800 free
Qin 100 breast
Shun 200 IM
anybody other than the US in the men’s relay
Bovada still has Ceccon at 4-1 in the 100 back.
He’s gone 51 mid once in his life, leading off a relay. Never been nearly that good in a championship final.
Hunter at 15-1 is better value.
Ceccon broke the world record in the individual final at worlds. Not the relay.
Lol SportsBet has the Aussie women 4×2 at $1.01. So if you bet $1,000 and won you would get $10
The women’s 100 breast has been such a crapshoot recently. If we can crack, we can unlock some parlays.
On FanDuel, Ruta is 12-1 and Tatianna is 11-1. If you alternate those two in some parlays, and one of them hits, you can make a lot of money. Hunter is 15-1 and I think he has a decent chance to win too. Any thoughts on other women in that 100 breast who could boost those parlay odds?
For instance, you can parlay Ari 400 free, Leon 400 IM, Sjostrom 50 free, and Pop 200 free for + 234, meaning you can make 2.34 times your money if all of those hit. I like those odds.
If you add Hunter Armstrong… Read more »
Parlays are sucker’s bets.
You know nothing
I’m surprised the Australian women 4×200 free relay aren’t bigger favorites. Maybe that factors in the possibility of a DQ. Other surprises are American men 4×100 free relay being such a big favorite and Titmus being favored by that much over MOC in the 200 free. Given how close that was a trials that seems like it could go either way.
Domain names in sport gambling are supposed to make out their odds out of computational work on database by modelling or machine learning or even AI at present and the odds being listed are subject to modification as competition data being fed consistently during a big event, e.g. OG now. These odds are purely data driven in comparison with the swimswam.com previews that are tampered by mankind’s preferences.