2024 Olympic Previews: Hot Hand Gives Tang The Edge In Wide Open Women’s 100 Breast

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
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BY THE NUMBERS — WOMEN’S 100 BREASTSTROKE

• World Record: 1:04.13 — Lilly King (USA) – 2017 World Championships
• World Junior Record: 1:04.35 — Ruta Meilutyte (LTU) – 2013 World Championships
• Olympic Record: 1:04.82 – Tatjana Smith (RSA) – 2021 Olympic Games
• 2021 Olympic Champion: Lydia Jacoby (USA), 1:04.82

Ever since we entered the 2020s, the women’s 100 breaststroke has been a wildly unpredictable event on the big stage.

First, we saw 17-year-old Lydia Jacoby upset defending champion Lilly King and newly-minted Olympic Record holder Tatjana Smith at the Tokyo Games in 2021.

In 2022, World Championship gold was won by Italy’s Benedetta Pilato in a time of 1:05.93, the slowest winning time since 2005. Ruta Meilutyte returned to full power the next year, dominating the field at Worlds in 1:04.62 to win by well over a second, but then this past February, she failed to earn a second swim as China’s Tang Qianting snagged gold.

Heading into Paris, based on what she did last year, it would be hard not to put Meilutyte down as the big favorite, but she underwent foot surgery at the end of February which puts her form up in the air.

THE 1:04 CLUB

During the Olympic qualifying period, three swimmers have been under 1:05 in the 100 breast.

Tang Qianting

The top seed is the 2024 world champion, Tang, who dropped a time of 1:04.39 at the Chinese Nationals to rank #4 all-time in the event in what was the fastest swim we’ve seen since 2017.

With Meilutyte a wildcard and Tang’s time being so elite—no one in the field has been within one second of her in 2024—it’s hard not to punch her in as the favorite for gold.

Tang’s only other sub-1:05 swim (1:04.68) came in the semis at Chinese Nationals, and she won the 2024 world title in 1:05.27. Those are the three fastest swims of her career, and if she’s able to hold this lifetime-best form through to Paris, gold is well within her grasp.

Ruta Meilutyte

The #2 seed coming is Meilutyte, who produced a pair of 1:04.6s at the 2023 World Championships en route to gold. She hasn’t been anywhere near that since, clocking 1:07.4 and 1:06.7 on the World Cup circuit in the fall and then going 1:07.79 at the 2024 World Championships in her lone swim of the calendar year.

Ruta Meilutyte. Photo: Fabio Cetti

The 27-year-old Lithuanian could win a historic gold, reclaiming the title she won at the age of 15 in 2012, or could just as easily miss the final if she isn’t back on top form. More than likely she’ll be somewhere in the middle, but it should require at least 1:04-mid to win gold, which might be a tad more than she’s capable of if last year was her peak.

Lilly King

The other swimmer seeded at 1:04 is Lilly King, the 2016 Olympic champion and world record holder. Since 2021, King’s fastest swim of the year hasn’t come at the major international meet, but rather in domestic competition, including 1:04.75 at the 2023 U.S. Nationals before going 1:06.02 in the Worlds final.

King used to have a penchant for coming up clutch when the pressure was on, and that ability seems to have dimmed a touch over the last three years. The 27-year-old has said she won’t compete through LA 2028, so this will be her last shot at more Olympic glory. She produced a solid 1:05.43 clocking at the Olympic Trials last month, ranking her 3rd among swimmers in the field in 2024.

All eyes were on her in Rio, going head-to-head with rival Yuliya Efimova, and then she was upended as the favorite in Tokyo. Can King reclaim the throne?

Tatjana Smith (Schoenmaker)

Smith (then Schoenmaker) stole King’s status as the favorite in the Tokyo final in some people’s minds after what she did in the prelims, firing off an Olympic Record of 1:04.82—a time that ended up being faster than what Jacoby went to win gold.

Smith got progressively slower through each round but still earned silver in 1:05.22.

Tatjana Smith (Schoenmaker) (photo: Jack Spitser)

Rounding back into form after sitting out of Worlds in 2022, Smith won silver in Fukuoka (1:05.84) and was her fastest since Tokyo in April, clocking 1:05.41 at the South African Championships.

There are some question marks surrounding Tang (consistency?), Meilutyte (form?) and King (swimming fast in final?), but Smith appears to be a reliable option to be 1:05-low or better in Paris. Where that lands her on the podium, or if it does at all, remains to be seen.

International Veterans

The women’s 100 breast has an established core group of contenders who trail the established top four, having never been under 1:05, but have the ability to win a medal in the final when all the numbers are thrown out the window.

Benedetta Pilato. Photo: Fabio Cetti.

Italy’s Pilato won the 2022 world title, so she has experience performing when it counts, and she also set a personal best of 1:05.44 last month in Rome at the Sette Colli Trophy. Still just 19, Pilato is a lot like Meilutyte in that she takes this race out fast and holds on, but when she’s not at her best she tends to fade.

In Tokyo, she was disqualified in the Olympic prelims, so Pilato will be out for redemption in Paris.

Ireland’s Mona McSharry has been 5th in each of the past two World Championship finals, and also made the third round in Tokyo placing 8th. The 23-year-old set a PB of 1:05.55 last year in Fukuoka (prelims) and has been 1:06.11 this year.

Tes Schouten is clearly a 200 breast specialist, but has the back-half ability to contend for a top spot in the 100. She snagged silver in Doha in 1:05.82, and owns a best of 1:05.55 from 2023. Schouten doesn’t have the speed to contend with the 1:04s, but given how unpredictable this event has been recently, 1:05-mid could easily land on the podium.

Other fixtures in recent World Championship finals include the Japanese duo of Reona Aoki and Satomi Suzuki, Sweden’s Sophie Hansson, Germany’s Anna Elendt, Estonia’s Eneli Jefimova and Lithuania’s Kotryna Teterevkova.

That group all hold best times in the 1:05 range, barring the 17-year-old Jefimova, who set a best of 1:06.08 this year.

Aoki owns a best of 1:05.19 and has the fastest time from this aforementioned six this year at 1:05.76.

Newcomers

Someone who could shake things up this year is Angharad Evans, a 21-year-old who blasted a new British Record of 1:05.54 in April, her first time under the 1:06 barrier.

Emma Weber (photo: Jack Spitser)

Evans backed that swim up with a 1:05.91 clocking at the Sette Colli Trophy, and the only thing working against her in Paris is a lack of major international experience. That might turn out to be a good thing at a competition as nerve-wracking as the Games, as sometimes first-timers are able to thrive (ignorance is bliss) while the weight of expectation hampers others (perhaps we saw this in Tokyo with Lydia Jacoby).

At the U.S. Trials, sniping the second spot behind Lilly King was Emma Weber, a University of Virginia product who caught fire in Indianapolis and established a new PB of 1:06.10 in the final.

Weber will likely need to be in the 1:05s to have a chance at a medal, but 1:06-low will probably be what’s required to make it in the final, and coming in on lifetime best form can do wonders for a swimmer’s confidence.

Other Contenders

Italy’s Lisa Angiolini is one to watch for after she matched her personal best from 2022 in March, going 1:06.00.

That ranks her ahead of some of the more established Europeans this season, but Angiolini has yet to prove she can be consistent through three rounds of racing at a major meet.

Belarusian Alina Zmushka was granted neutral status in order to compete, having set a National Record two weeks ago in 1:06.20, and we also can’t overlook the versatile Anastasia Gorbenko (1:06.15), China’s Yang Chang (1:06.23) and Singapore’s Letitia Sim (1:06.36).

The Verdict

History tells us the hot hand really matters in this event, and right now that belongs to Tang. Her consecutive 1:04s after winning the 2024 world title make her hard to deny for gold.

Smith has been slowly simmering back into form after Tokyo, getting better and better from 2022 to 2023, and then so far this year she’s been even better. Her best could be waiting in Paris.

King is feisty and will fight for a medal, we’re just not sure she the firepower to reclaim gold given what Tang has done this year.

Meilutyte and Evans are two wildcards for different reasons, but we see them in the final, along with the youngster Jefimova, whose short course performances at the end of 2023 tell us she’s got a 1:05 in her in long course.

SwimSwam’s Picks

Dark Horse: Jenna Strauch (AUS) – Strauch has only been 1:06.9 in the qualifying period, but has Olympic experience and is only two years removed from winning silver at the World Championships in the 200 and setting a best of 1:06.1 in the 100. An injury forced Strauch out of the 2023 Worlds, but a narrow win at the Aussie Olympic Trials landed her a berth in Paris. A semi-final, and maybe even finals appearance, could be in the cards if at her best.