After the first full day of competition at the Men’s NCAA Championships, we have a better look at how teams are doing. Here you can find how your favorite team did compared to their seeds. We also try to dice up what the team race could look like in the upcoming days with a couple different tables.
The Team Title Race
Barring major disaster, Texas looks to be a pretty solid bet for the team title. They are projected to be the highest scorers in the pool for both of the next two days, which would extend their current lead. The Longhorns held relatively steady compared to their #1-seeded psych score on night two, coming in at -3. They would’ve been up if it weren’t for Will Modglin’s 200 IM disqualification. This table shows the final score forecast without diving for the final two days of competition:
Current Scores + Predictions
| Team | Score After Day 2 | Day 3 Prediction (no diving) | Day 4 Prediction (no diving) | Total |
| Texas | 190 | 172.5 | 128.5 | 491 |
| Florida | 101 | 157.5 | 96 | 354.5 |
| Cal | 159.5 | 49 | 126 | 334.5 |
| Indiana | 146 | 111.5 | 98 | 355.5 |
Swimming Trajectories
| Team | Original Psych Score (w/o Diving) | Day 1 Over/Under Psych Score | Day 2 Over/Under Psych Score | Day 1/2 results + day 3/4 psych score (w/o Diving) |
| Texas | 480 | +8 | -3 | 485 |
| Florida | 420 | -52 | -17 | 351 |
| Cal | 292 | +16 | +26 | 334 |
| Indiana | 291.5 | +20 | +15 | 326.5 |
The second table shows where the teams started and are at now with respect to just swimming. Florida’s near-130 point gap above Indiana and Cal on the psych sheet has nearly disappeared after two days of competition. The Hoosiers and Golden Bears once again overperformed compared to seeds, while the Gators fell further below their projections.
When you throw in diving, things look quite favorable for the Hoosiers. Last night, in the 1m diving, Indiana’s Quentin Henninger took the national title, and his teammate Carson Tyler took the B-final (though Tyler earned the 2nd highest score of the night, missing out on even more points by not qualifying in the top eight). Still, if Indiana’s swimming trajectory and diving dominance remain constant, their odds for the runner-up spot don’t look bad at all.
Overall Day 2 Over/Under
Below the top four, Texas A&M had a big night thanks to their top eight finish in the 200 free relay despite being seeded at 15. Michigan, meanwhile, had another rocky day of relays while also losing out on expected finals points in the 200 IM.
| Team | Difference vs Psych Score |
| Cal | +26 |
| Indiana | +15 |
| TAMU | +15 |
| Stanford | +9 |
| LSU | +8 |
| FSU | +6 |
| Louisville | +6 |
| UNC | +6 |
| ASU | +5 |
| Georgia | +4 |
| USC | +4 |
| Alabama | +1 |
| VT | 0 |
| Arizona | 0 |
| Brown | 0 |
| Kentucky | 0 |
| Tennessee | -2 |
| Cal Baptist | -2 |
| Texas | -3 |
| Virginia | -4 |
| Princeton | -4 |
| Yale | -8 |
| NC State | -9 |
| OSU | -10 |
| Wisconsin | -13 |
| Florida | -17 |
| Auburn | -21 |
| Michigan | -25 |
500 free
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference |
| Texas | 44 | 47 | +3 |
| Florida | 11.5 | 5 | -7 |
| Cal | 25 | 17 | -8 |
| Indiana | 3 | 12 | +9 |
| Tennessee | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ASU | 0 | 2 | +2 |
| NC State | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Georgia | 31 | 29 | -2 |
| Stanford | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michigan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FSU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VT | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OSU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisville | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | 12 | 13 | +1 |
| TAMU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Auburn | 4.5 | 0 | -5 |
| Yale | 17 | 9 | -8 |
| Arizona | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | 1 | 11 | +10 |
| Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UNC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | 0 | 4 | +4 |
200 IM
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference |
| Texas | 30 | 23 | -7 |
| Florida | 20 | 13 | -7 |
| Cal | 0 | 21 | +21 |
| Indiana | 31 | 21 | -10 |
| Tennessee | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ASU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NC State | 7 | 0 | -7 |
| Georgia | 3 | 9 | +6 |
| Stanford | 1 | 14 | +13 |
| Michigan | 28 | 19 | -9 |
| FSU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VT | 11 | 15 | +4 |
| OSU | 9 | 1 | -8 |
| Louisville | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TAMU | 5 | 2 | -3 |
| Auburn | 6 | 0 | -6 |
| Yale | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UNC | 0 | 6 | +6 |
| USC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cal Baptist | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Army | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Princeton | 4 | 0 | -4 |
50 free
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference |
| Texas | 13 | 14 | +1 |
| Florida | 27 | 26 | -1 |
| Cal | 14 | 19 | +5 |
| Indiana | 0 | 6 | +6 |
| Tennessee | 37.5 | 36 | -2 |
| ASU | 26 | 27 | +1 |
| NC State | 12 | 12 | 0 |
| Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stanford | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michigan | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| FSU | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| VT | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OSU | 5 | 3 | -2 |
| Louisville | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Alabama | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TAMU | 7 | 7 | 0 |
| Auburn | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Yale | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| LSU | 9 | 5 | -4 |
| Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UNC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 3 | 0 | -3 |
| Kentucky | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Penn | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cal Baptist | 1.5 | 0 | -2 |
200 free relay
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Difference |
| Texas | 26 | 26 | 0 |
| Florida | 34 | 32 | -2 |
| Cal | 22 | 30 | 8 |
| Indiana | 14 | 24 | 10 |
| Tennessee | 40 | 40 | 0 |
| ASU | 32 | 34 | 2 |
| NC State | 30 | 28 | -2 |
| Georgia | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Stanford | 8 | 4 | -4 |
| Michigan | 28 | 12 | -16 |
| FSU | 4 | 10 | 6 |
| VT | 12 | 8 | -4 |
| OSU | 18 | 18 | 0 |
| Louisville | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| Alabama | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TAMU | 4 | 22 | 18 |
| Auburn | 10 | 0 | -10 |
| Yale | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia | 4 | 0 | -4 |
| LSU | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| Brown | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| UNC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| USC | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 24 | 14 | -10 |
This kind of analysis is kind of entertaining but not truly insightful. Some of the Texas men and Virginia’s women (and some others) swam really fast in-season. Many teams get psyched for and swim fast at their conference meets. Some swimmers get sick or injured at inopportune times. Disqualifications certainly skew points that might have scored in an unintended direction. Swimmers and coaches use different strategies to qualify for NCAAs and entry times may not paint an accurate picture of the reality about to unfold.
The report makes it look like Texas underperformed in the 200 IM when I think they actually would have outscored their predicted score were it not for Modglin’s DQ. Meanwhile, one would be naive to… Read more »
These “projections” are great and helpful (thank you!). However, they are limited since they are simply based on the psych sheets.
It’s more effort (but more accurate) to correct the psych sheets for under and over seeded swimmers, etc.
The Swimulator and SwimCloud meet simulator are also awesome – Thank you to those!
Someday I’ll get around to posting a projection package that includes corrections and allows users to change based on their predicted results (including diving) and see how the final standings changes in real time during the meet….
Here’s my predictions for the next 2 days excluding diving. I’ve taken into consideration best times and how each swimmer is performing so far at NCAAs. Add in diving and we may have a very close meet on Day 4.
Day 3
UT – 7/2
Cal – 7/3
IU – 5/8
Day 4
UT – 5/3
Cal – 6/5
IU – 6/4
Day 3+4 combined
UT – 12/6
Cal – 13/8
IU – 11/12
Your projections for total diving points for Indiana each day?
I think the article makes clear that, NO, it’s certainly not in the bag for UT, but if things just “sort of” play out as outlined above, UT men will be taking home a first place trophy (and rings).
I’d argue that it’s in the bag for Texas at this point. They would need to severely underperform to lost at this point, and from day 1 it looks like they’re firing from all cylinders
day 1 & 2*
In my experience, swimmers will more commonly have good/bad meets rather than good/bad races. Of course there are always exceptions, but as we saw last night Texas is fine after having a swimmer DQ’ed, who otherwise made the A final
The swimming community loves CAL. and we all know why. I am rooting for the Horns on this on #HOOKEM boys
Yes the swimming community loves Cal because the boys are prettier than the ones at Texas. Thank you for saying this. Roll on you bears!
Yeah the race for first is still VERY much on, despite the title of this article.
Agreed. This will be much closer than this article lets on. IU has low seeds that will move up and TX can only go down or stay the same in most. Then add diving…
I know I sound crazy but I still think Indiana has a solid chance, day 1 is by far their weakest, they will charge the next 2 days
I used to be a big fan of Cal but their cat and mouse game of snagging greater than college aged international swimmers is a strategy for desperate programs that can’t recruit/ develop through the proper channels. Sure everyone is guilty of it to a certain extent but Cal has gone well beyond the tolerated standard.
Means a lot when cal hate isn’t coming from me, and couldn’t agree more
Cal’s underclassman development has been horrid the past few years likely because of the attention diva foreign mercenary ring chasing 25 year olds require
You’re being ridiculous, they have two, one of which had been at and competed for them a couple years ago, the other committed in January of last year. Why Tomac didn’t swim first semester? We don’t know, but you’re acting like they’re only doing well because all their scoring swimmers are 26 year old foreigners. Tomac didn’t even final in the IM.
I agree, Texas does have guys like Guiliano who they poached, but they have way more guys like Maurer who they developed in-house to perform well. It’s not Cal’s fault 100%, they’re just taking advantage of the broken system. And like all coaches, Durden and Marsh get a bonus for winning NCAAs, so they’re going to do whatever it takes to win even if it’s frowned upon.
I would guess that every coach would take Lucas Henveaux is he said I want to come to your school in January. Don’t blame Durden for being the place that got him. Every other coach is also trying to win and want the best swimmers to help do that.
The system isn’t broken and Durden isn’t doing anything wrong. If anything, he’s smart and doing a better job at getting the fastest swimmers.
Cal isn’t my favorite team so I’m not sticking up for them because I went there or have some allegiance with them. But I am realistic.
Ultimately there is no prize for developing a swimmer in house. The goal is to win and you… Read more »
Technically Texas poached Maurer from Stanford. He’s had a stellar first season in Austin, but he’s not the best example to illustrate how Texas is building its teams in-house.
I doubt Texas would be close to the top of the leaderboard right now without Kos, Maurer, and Guiliano — all of whom are transfers.
3/5 Texas swimmers in A finals last night were transfers vs 1 former golfer for Cal
Readers added context: Although 3 out 5 Texas swimmers in the A finals last night were transfers, Kos was already developed under Bowman and Maurer did not get fast until he started swimming for Bowman.
Yeah Maurer was a real long shot to develop being the #1 recruit in the country
Careful Joe, he was only the #2 recruit in his class! That’s exponentially harder to develop than the #1 recruit
We all live in glass houses. Some do it different than other (or more, or whatever) but every team has a mercenary on it, or so it seems.
I really don’t like the one semester rentals. Guys that are suddenly on rosters in February? You want to announce in the summer you are transferring and won’t enroll until December? I don’t love that, but it is at least “above board”, whatever that really means these days. But none of the teams contending this year are immune to this in some form or fashion.
Who was the guy Cal was trying to add a week before ACC’s? Stuff like that. And don’t get me wrong. If we could have added Regan… Read more »
Brooks Curry -but he had been training at cal since 2023 I believe
With NIL, this a moot subject. Maurer, Kos, Guilliano were with different programs last year, and the Horns wouldn’t be close without them. As a Longhorn fan, and in any sport, really, funding for sports NIL is almost important as recruiting, especially
swimming, where three or four “studs” can make all the difference.