With the release today of the Men’s official 2011 NCAA Psych Sheets, it’s time to look at some numbers (check out the women’s version). The men’s psych sheets, because of the smaller field, have to be viewed a little differently than the women’s, especially with regards to relays. There are only 13 “invited” relays (and no optional relays listed) on the men’s side, though there should be at least the 16 to fill out full scoring spots when the meet actually rolls around. Without delving too far into how “bonus” relays can compete at the meet, simplistically, if a team has four swimmers otherwise qualified for the meet, they can be combined into a relay.
All scoring addressed herein excludes roughly 12 points left on the table for each relay, which can make significant differences in placing, but given that these stats are only an approximation of what might actually happen anyways, it will be near the bottom of the list of significant considerations for the top teams.
With that in mind, here is how the scoring breaks down:
- Cal 438
- Florida 369.5
- Stanford 369
- Texas 294.5
- Auburn 280
- Arizona 256
- Michigan 206
- USC 188.5
- Ohio State 164
- Georgia 154
- Virginia 153
- Tennessee 129
- Indiana 96
- UNLV 91
- Minnesota 87.5
- UNC 53
- Penn State 31
- A&M 23
- Clemson 19
- SMU 14
- Louisville 13
- South Carolina 13
- Iowa 12
- UCSB 11
- St. Peter’s 11
- Michigan St. 9
- Wisconsin 8.5
- Cal Poly 5
- West Virginia 4
- Seton Hall 3
- Florida State 3
- Columbia 2.5
- LSU 2
- Northwestern 2
- TCU 1
- Alabama 1
As you can see, Cal has a significant advantage over the rest of the field in terms of scoring. Just as we emphasized in our Pac-10 coverage, the NCAA format can yield wildly different results than the conference format, and this is a prime example. Whereas Stanford won the Pac-10 title by 47 points, Cal is projected to take the NCAA title over no. 3 Stanford by 69 points, resulting in over a 100 point swing.
On paper, it appears that Cal is a huge favorite to win the meet. Of course, these meets aren’t swum on paper, but with that kind of commanding margin (including having competed against third-ranked Stanford on equal terms) it seems hard to believe that anyone’s going to catch them. Florida and Stanford will be very tight for second though.
Of the top teams, Texas and Arizona appeared to be the least rested for their respective conference championship meets, so expect them to move up and make things much tighter than seeds indicate. We also know that Florida has a lot of points to be made up if for no other reason than that the nation’s best swimmer, Conor Dwyer, is seeded to not score in the 100 free; we know that this is unlikely.
(Quick note, Stanford takes a big hit as David Mosko is out for the year with an undisclosed injury).
As expected, Cal had the most swimmers entered with a full roster of 18. Texas had 17, but when divers are included they will use their full allotment of roster spots as well. Here are the teams with the most swimmers entered.
Double-digit Teams
California – 18
Texas – 17
Arizona – 15
Auburn – 14
Florida – 14
Stanford – 13
Michigan – 12
Southern California – 12
Ohio State – 11
Virginia – 10
Tennessee — 9
Indiana — 9
Of course, this excludes diving scoring. Stanford has a chance at a few diving points from senior Brent Eischenseer, but nothing that’s going to significantly shake up this meet. In fact, in stark comparison to the women’s meet, out of the top 10, only Texas (Drew Livingston) and USC (Harrison Jones) have divers that will significantly affect their team totals. Texas will be good for somewhere around 45 diving points, whereas USC would do well to expect somewhere around 30. We’ll asterisk these two squads as we break down other scoring totals so that you can keep this in mind.
Also entirely excluded from the psych sheet scoring is Purdue, which is the only program in the nation that has such a spectacular diving program that it can hope for a top-15 finish on divers alone.
Cal, not surprisingly, is expecting the most points out of their relays at 172. This scoring will likely be bolstered by some anticipated relay shifts, which will probably result in an extra 6-8 points out of their 800 free relay. In fact, the meet is seeded almost identically to the relay points (which is different than we saw on the women’s side), which means there’s a lot of deep, balanced teams. Florida is projected to earn 160, mostly on the strength of their medleys and 800 free relay, and Stanford is pegged at 154. Virginia has to be encouraged by the number of relay points that they are expecting, given that their depth has been much maligned this season.
Top 10 in relay scoring:
1. Cal 172
2. Florida 160
3. Stanford 154
4. Auburn 138
5. Texas 124
6. Arizona 106
7. Ohio State 100
8. Michigan 94
9. USC 94
10. Virginia 78
Cal is also expected to win the most individual events (four) and relays (3). This is followed by Florida with three and two top seeds, respectively. These event wins score mega bonus points, but in terms of overall scoring, it’s harder to outperform your seeds. Stanford is also expected to win two individuals, with the rest of the top seeds scattered amongst Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, and Indiana, with one a piece.
Auburn has the most room to move up, with 3 number two seeds that offer the most bonus points by moving up a single placing.
Another metric that favors Cal is that they have 26 potential “scores” in the meet, meaning 26 occasions where a swimmer or relay is seeded in the top 16. Stanford, however, shows even more with 29. Arizona has 23, despite their lack of rest at Pac-10’s, which makes them scary, and Florida has 22 (plus one for Conor Dwyer’s 100 free). These are the teams that will be the least reliant on any one or two individuals to have a good meet for their points. This is in stark contrast to teams like Indiana (Eric Ress and Corey Miller) or Virginia (Scot Robison and Matt McLean) that each have nearly all of their expected individual scoring wrapped up in two swimmers.
Day by Day Breakdown
Day 1
Cal is hoping to zoom out to a small lead after day 1, thanks to two potential relay wins in the 200 free and 400 medley relays. They will stay within reachable distance, though, thanks to very little (or no) scoring in the 500 free. Auburn is also expected to be very strong in both of those relays, and will be strengthened by a 45-point boon in the 50 free. Stanford doesn’t have a ton of relay scoring on day 1, but they are solid in the individuals, including a top seed in the 200 IM from Austin Staab. Arizona and Texas also have a lot of depth on the first day, and without much taper in their seed-times, could easily be at the top of the pile.
- Cal 117
- Auburn 113.5
- Stanford 111
- Arizona 101.5
- Florida 98.5
- Texas 96.5*
Day 2
The Golden Bears will have a huge haul on the second day of competition, thanks mostly to the 100-yard distances. They have a top two seed in the 100 back, breast AND fly, and the top four seeds in the 100 breaststroke. Again, though, they will have a very weak event in the 200 free, and not much in the 400 IM either. Florida, on the other hand, is very strong in both of those events, and will make their biggest move on the second day.
- Cal 301
- Florida 275.5
- Stanford 227
- Texas 200.5*
- Auburn 194.5
- Arizona 181
Day 3
This final day, with several more top-two finishes expected, should solidify the win for Cal, but the battle for second will be quite interesting. Stanford is quite good on the final, distance-focused day, and they will make a big run at the Gators. If the defending champion Longhorns are going to make their move, this is going to be the day for them to do it as well, given that they’re incredibly proficient in the 200-yard and mile events. Florida seems as though they’re quite strong on this final day, but in reality they don’t have a ton of depth in the 200’s. Auburn and Arizona (even with the Wildcats’ anticipated taper) will struggle to keep up with the top four on the last day.
- Cal 438
- Florida 369.5
- Stanford 369
- Texas 294.5
- Auburn 280
- Arizona 256
But to compare based only on these numbers would be flawed. There’s obviously a lot more that goes into NCAA’s than simply seed times. Based on recent history, the continuum of what sort of times these teams can be expected to drop will look something like this (from least drops to most drops):
(Fewest NCAA Drops Expected)
Auburn
Stanford
Cal
Florida
Texas
Arizona
(Most NCAA Drops Expected)
Of course, even this can fluctuate hugely with a missed taper or a change in strategy.
Stay tuned over the next few weeks, and we’ll break things down on a more subjective level.
I mean, yeah, they don’t have much in the 200 500 or mile, but neither does Auburn…neither does Stanford in the 100 back or 100 fly…or Texas in either butterfly event. Cal’s weaknesses are no more significant than anyone else’s.
And wouldn’t “so not showing up in one of those events would hut them a lot more” be the definition of beating themselves? If they swim to expectations, they win. For anyone to beat them, they have to underperform. And, as a corollary to what you said, doesn’t that also mean that if one guy has an off swim, the other 2 or 3 move up? Isn’t that a good thing?
also “they can only beat themselves”
they also have to beat stanford, texas, and auburn. these teams aren’t just going to roll over and give them the meet. No doubt cal is the favorite and has a ridiculously talented team, but they are also heavily concentrated in a few events instead of being spread across the board, so not showing up in one of those events would hurt them a lot more than the other teams vying for the title.
I think you might be overestimating how much florida has left in the tank. The way they swam at SEC’s (lifetime bests across the board) it seems that troy gave them more rest than usual to try and make a run at the conference title for dwyer/fraser’s senior year. Dwyer will get big just because he is a once in a millenium freak but the others don’t have that much upward mobility
Cal probably made roster decisions based on who shaved…for instance that 12th seeded backstroker was shaved as was their 4:19 500 guy. Almost all of their other folks haven’t shaved yet.
Why do people keep insisting that Cal will not drop that much? Last year they had consistent drops and moved up across the board. They were seeded to score 320 or so and ended up getting almost 470. At Pac 10s Shields dropped a lot from his best to win, then dropped almost another second at NCAAs. I can’t believe I’m saying this, but it appears people are actually underestimating Cal (though I am confused as to why they wouldn’t take their 12th seeded 200 backstroker, or why they would take a 4:23 500 over a 4:19).
I think Cal will have some drops, but I don’t think it’s going to be huge, across-the-board drops like we’ll see from a team like Arizona. I expect them and Florida to see similar drops, and of course some places they’ll come more easily than others. Adrian should be looking at about an 18.7 in his 50 free, but I don’t know if Shields has a 1:39 200 fly in him (yet). But there seems to be little doubt that they’ll win this meet…they can only beat themselves at this point.
Yeah, what is the story with Mosko? That is huge for Stanford.
Just heard that Mosko is out for the season with a shoulder injury.
Exactly. That’s what I was saying at the end. Stanford and Cal shouldn’t have that many drops. Let me reformat that to make it more clear what I was saying.
What happened to Dave Mosko of Stanford is he ill or injured?