2013 NCAA Women’s Picks: A&M’s Sarah Henry Gunning for Olympians in Distance Frees

North Carolina’s Stephanie Peacock is out of NCAA’s, which should break the distance freestyles wide-open: especially the mile, where she was the defending champion and the NCAA Record holder.

For the most part, the contenders in these two races overlap at NCAA’s, with one very notable exception: Georgia’s Allison Schmitt, who as the defending Olymnpic silver medalist in the 400 free probably takes “favorite” honors despite only entering as the 7th seed in the event.

That honor will be rightfully split between her and Texas A&M’s Sarah Henry. Henry is the only swimmer in the country who has been better than 4:35 this year and will swim the 500 free at NCAA’s (Peacock and Elizabeth Beisel are the other two who have done it). She was a 4:33.07 mid-season, and though she wasn’t tapered for SEC (she was a 4:35.25) she still took the title against names like Schmitt and last year’s NCAA runner-up Amber McDermott.

Henry, coming back from a second ACL injury that forced her into a redshirt last year, will be the top seed in both the 500 and the mile at the NCAA Championships. USC’s Haley Anderson is the defending 500 free champion, but with the return from years-off by both Henry and Schmitt, it will likely take better than her 4:34.48 to win this title. Expect the NCAA Record (set by Schmitt at her last championship meet with a 4:32.71) to go down this year.

Henry’s teammate Cammile Adams (Natalie on your psych sheets) will be the 3rd seed in 4:35.66; she had trouble on day 1 of NCAA’s last year in this event before really picking up steam as the meet wore on, but after her Olympic appearance has swum so well this year that it’s hard to see her falling outside of the top 8.

Then there’s the pair of surprise contenders from the Big Ten: both of whom smashed the conference record at the Big Ten Championships. Minnesota’s Kiera Janzen has already been 6 seconds better than she was at her best last season (4:35.70). For Indiana’s Lindsay Vrooman, the Big Ten champion, it was a more modest three-second drop (4:35.41) but still a notable improvement. Here’s the history on those two: Vrooman, a junior, has historically dropped about a second between Big Tens and NCAA’s. Janzen, as a freshman last season, added 5 seconds.

Georgia will be amped up for big points in this 500 free. They should have at least three finish in the top 8, including Schmitt, McDermott, and last year’s 4th-place finisher Shannon Vreeland. Vreeland’s times, and history, indicates that she’s got a big drop coming from her 4:38 in-season time this year.

A few other swimmers to watch include Tennessee’s Lindsay Gendron, the 7th seed. She bombed this race at NCAA’s last season, but seems like a totally different swimmer this year. West Virginia’s Rachael Burnett made a big impact on her team’s first Big 12 Championship, winning Swimmer of the Meet honors. Virginia’s Rachel Naurath is having a bounceback year, and Arizona freshman Bonnie Brandon has rekindled her somewhat dormant talents in the 500 free.

Another A&M swimmer, Maureen McLaine, was 9th in prelims at NCAA’s last year. Balancing out graduations/scratches with new swimmers, that gives her a very good chance at bumping into the top 8 as well. The Aggies’ goal as a team this year is to place in the top 4, so if they manage three top-8 scorers in this race, that would be a big, big 40+ boost to their effort.

Catherine Breed from Cal is a bit of a sleeper. Coming into the year, we would’ve called her a lock for the A-Final; however, like Henry she’s battling a second ACL injury in a few years. There is some scary depth in this 500: 18 swimmers are seeded better than a 4:40. For a historical comparison, even before NCAA’s that’s more than we saw in the 2008-2009, polyurethane-suited season all-year-long. Even last year, only 16 swimmers did.

In the longer mile, there will be no Schmitt, and Henry is again the top seed. Her primary challenger will be USC’s Anderson, who was a 15:43.44 for 3rd-place at NCAA’s last season (about a two-second add from her seed time). That’s better than Henry has been this season, so far.

Last season, Anderson was probably impeded a little bit by the quick turnaround for the open water Olympic Trials that were at the end of April. This year, World Championship qualifying is two weeks later, and maybe not as significant, as Olympic qualifying, so we could see a different level of focus on NCAA’s. Interestingly, despite her success in the open water 10km swim in 2012, at NCAA’s she won the 500 free, but was 3rd in the mile.

McDermott returns in this mile, taking over the torch for the now-graduated Wendy Trott, and Vrooman’s improvements in the 500 have gone two-fold in the mile, and she’s the second seed coming into this race. Her teammate Amber McDermott had one of the best freshman distance seasons in history last year. Another Bulldog contender, Brittany MacLean, is one of the best distance swimmers in Canadian history already, and her goal will be at least a top 8 finish as well.

Florida’s British freshman Jessica Thielmann is having a good year as well as the Florida distance group is growing (Alicia Mathieu is the 6th seed).

McLaine from A&M is a possible top-8 finisher in the 500, but she should be a for-sure top-8 finisher in this mile, her better race.

Anderson isn’t the only open water swimmer in this race. Arizona State’s Tristin Baxter was 7th at last year’s NCAA’s. Eva Fabian this year is a freshman at Yale and is the 17th seed coming into this meet.

Texas’ Kaitlin Pawlowicz is seeded 19th coming into this race with a 16:09.96. She’ll hope to go the opposite direction at NCAA’s from what she did last season, where she added 16 seconds.

The always-stout Arkansas distance group is on their game again this season, with Lauren Jordan and Nicole Menzel both swimming this mile.

This race is going to be 100% about who improves their seed time and who doesn’t. It only took 16:14 to score at NCAA’s last year, and 30 women have done that this season.

Here’s our picks for the women’s distance freestyles, with their seed times:

500 Freestyle

1. Allison Schmitt, Georgia, 4:36.54
2. Sarah Henry, Texas A&M, 4:33.07
3. Haley Anderson, USC, 4:36.87
4. Lindsay Vrooman, Indiana, 4:35.41
5. Cammile Adams, Texas A&M, 4:35.66
6. Amber McDermott, Georgia, 4:35.82
7. Shannon Vreeland, Georgia, 4:38.27
8. Maureen McLaine, Texas A&M, 4:38.77

Darkhorses: Brittany MacLean, Georgia – this feels like cheating to even include her, but she’s only the 20th seed. There’s no way that I believe a swimmer who goes 4:05.0 in the long course 400 can’t get down to a 4:35 in the 500 free. With such narrow margins, anybody who qualified has a chance at the top 8, but look out for Virginia’s Alison Haulsee as well. She scored in the 200 fly at NCAA’s last year, but her 500 free has looked really good in 2013.

1650 Freestyle

1. Haley Anderson, USC, 15:55.91
2. Sarah Henry, Texas A&M, 15:45.79
3. Lindsay Vrooman, Indiana, 15:51.20
4. Amber McDermott, Georgia, 16:01.66
5. Maureen McLaine, Texas A&M, 15:55.81
6. Jessica Thielmann, Florida, 15:52.34
7. Tristin Baxter, Arizona State, 16:02.86
8. Alicia Mathieu, Florida, 15:59.11

Darkhorse: Laurin Williams, Ohio – Ohio’s Laurin Williams comes in with about the same seed time as she did last year as a sophomore, where she ended up adding 10 seconds. Consider that last year, she dropped 40 seconds from her in-season best to qualify for NCAA’s; this season, she and her coach will have been able to plan their season out a little bit better. She’s one of two qualifiers for this race out of the MAC. The other is Briana Emig from Eastern Michigan, who similarly seems to have lined things out to improve her time at NCAA’s and maybe, just maybe, sneak into that top 8.