SwimSwam Pulse: 36% Predict No World Records At U.S. Olympic Trials

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers how many world records would fall at U.S. Olympic Trials:

RESULTS

Question: How many world records will fall at U.S. Olympic Trials?

  • Zero – 36.4%
  • 2 – 24.6%
  • 1 – 23.6%
  • 3 or more – 15.4%

36.4% of voters predicted no world records to fall at the 2021 U.S. Olympic Trials – which would match the world record output from 2012 and 2016 Trials.

The tricky part in projecting world records is that the top swimmers, the ones most likely to challenge world records, are often saving a full rest for the Olympics themselves, making world records at Trials less likely.

However, about 64% of voters predicted at least one world record would fall. In fact, 15.4% of voters were bullish enough to predict that three or more records will fall.

There are a few events where true world-record-level threats might have to be at or near their best just to make the Olympic team. The women’s 100 and 200 backstrokes are good examples. Regan Smith is the world record-holder in both events, and young enough to still be improving fast, even without a full taper. And with former world record-holder Kathleen Baker in the field along with 2016 Olympian Olivia Smoliga and young standouts Phoebe Bacon, Claire Curzan, Katharine Berkoff and Isabelle Stadden among many others, Smith herself doesn’t have too much wiggle room to save a full rest for the Olympics.

 

Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Pollwhich asks voters if any top-2 finishers at Wave I Trials will pass on their opportunity to move on to the Wave II meet the next week:

Will any top-2 finishers at Wave I Trials choose not to swim Wave II?

View Results

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A3 Performance is an independently-owned, performance swimwear company built on a passion for swimming, athletes, and athletic performance. We encourage swimmers to swim better and faster at all ages and levels, from beginners to Olympians.  Driven by a genuine leader and devoted staff that are passionate about swimming and service, A3 Performance strives to inspire and enrich the sport of swimming with innovative and impactful products that motivate swimmers to be their very best – an A3 Performer.

The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner

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NE COACH
1 month ago

Hot Take – Regan Smith misses both backstroke events.
100: Smoliga/White
200: Bacon/Baker

Hswimmer
Reply to  NE COACH
1 month ago

It could happen in 100, but doubt 200

Harambe
Reply to  NE COACH
1 month ago

You’re downvoted to hell, but I gotta respect the take. It truly is hot. Wrong, but definitely spicy. Take my lone upvote

Blastman
Reply to  NE COACH
1 month ago

WRONG!!!!1

HoosierDaddy
1 month ago

36% have no idea what they are talking about!

Admin
Reply to  HoosierDaddy
1 month ago

There hasn’t been a World Record at Trials since 2008 (the early days of supersuits when there was a world record set about four times a week globally).

World Records at the US Olympic Trials are an anomaly.

Irish Ringer
Reply to  Braden Keith
1 month ago

I guess we can bookmark this comment between the two of you and settle up in a few weeks.

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  Braden Keith
1 month ago

Four US Open Records that are most likely to go down:

W 100 BK (00:58.00)
W 200 BK (02:05.68)
W 100 FL (00:56.20)
W 200 FL (02:05.87)

Someone else can research the men’s side.

Blastman
Reply to  Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
1 month ago

i can see Andrews breaking Lochte’s record in the 200 IM, if he can finish his last 50.

Marklewis
1 month ago

There are a couple events that might produce WR.

Men’s 100 backstroke and Women’s 100 breaststroke and Women’s 100 Backstroke.

The extreme pressure cooker of that Women’s 100 backstroke might produce a WR. Two of them have held the WR already.

Last edited 1 month ago by Marklewis
PhillyMark
Reply to  Marklewis
1 month ago

It would have to be an event w an attainable WR and competition for top 2 spots and an individual on full taper. I think Claire Curzan in 100 fly would be my bet….odds would be long but she has gone out under WR pace previously.

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  Marklewis
1 month ago

Lilly King will save hers for Tokyo.

Coach Johnson
Reply to  Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
1 month ago

She Will
Ray. Looze great breaststroke thinking Coach

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  Marklewis
1 month ago

If Regan Smith hits her taper, Regan Smith breaks the US Open Record in the women’s 100 meter backstroke (58.00) and the women’s 200 meter backstroke (2:05.68).

GATOR CHOMP 🐊
1 month ago

I’m ready for MA to break 1:50 in the IM

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  GATOR CHOMP 🐊
1 month ago

LOL!

10U Dad
1 month ago

I’m 50/50 on a WR happening at OT but the event it seems most likely to happen in is the Men’s 100 Free.

Joris Bohnson
1 month ago

WR Alert: Regan smith 100 back, Dressel 50/100 free, and maybeee Murphy 100 back if he is on fire

Irish Ringer
Reply to  Joris Bohnson
1 month ago

Good possibilities if it’s going to happen. Who knows, we might see one in the women’s 200BK and men’s 100 fly as well.

Blastman
1 month ago

I feel for Simone Manuel. Just missed making finals in the 100 after having a rough April out of the water. Hope she can bounce back in the 50.

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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