This week on the SwimSwam Breakdown, we discuss the ride of Hunter Armstrong, USA’s positioning in the LCM 200/400s, and what US Nationals in Irvine might look like this summer. See below for full list of topics:
- 0:00 SwimSwam Breakdown Introduction
- 0:57 What is the ceiling for Hunter Armstrong this summer in Budapest?
- 7:53 Why are the 200/400s in the USA seemingly behind the 50s/100s?
- 16:43 Claire Curzan and Torri Huske are both taking on hefty schedules, but their years looked very different
- 21:56 Are we developing youth to be the best that they can in the pool in the USA?
- 27:32 Will we see World top times coming out of the US Summer Nationals in Irvine?
SINK or SWIM
- 34:18 Will Katie Ledecky Sweep her individual events at World Champs to tie Michael Phelps for the most world titles in history?
- 39:03 Will Caeleb Dressel break a world record this summer?
- 43:22 Will Thomas Heilman make his fist World Champs team next year?
Ledecky won’t sweep four events. She will 100% win the 800 and 1500. She is the strong favourite in the 400 but not guaranteed. I think her wining the 200 would actually be kind of a surprise.
I’m going to say Dressel will break his 100 fly record. I don’t see either of the free records going down yet.
I can 100% guarantee she won’t win the 200 free, as of 12 minutes ago ;-). Stay tuned.
Oh obviously I missed the announcement. She wasn’t winning it anyway so no harm no foul. This makes her schedule easier too.
Should’ve done the same last year
Unless she scratches and the Chinese aren’t doped she will win the 200 and sweep the frees
Look who was first person to comment that she wouldn’t swim 200! That would be me!
Which other swimmer has swam under 4:00 in the 400 free among the active swimmers besides Titmus? Ledecky is definitely winning the 400.
I said she’s the strongest favourite but not guaranteed and it sounds like you’ve taken that as a personal attack lol. McIntosh swam a 4:01 at trials with no one within ten seconds of her. I don’t think it’s inconceivable that she would drop 2-3 seconds from that at Worlds given the other time drops she’s achieved lately.
Honestly McIntosh winning the 400 would be less of a surprise than Finke’s Olympic medals. All it took for him was for the front runners to be off their best in the final and that could happen here too.
Gees they’re squeezing everything outta those trials.
Rando thoughts:
- Those women’s 200s are so much more likely than the men’s to go down, dang. There are women whomst you could see breaking a few of them on the roster right now – KL could go nuts with a UF taper and get free, the 2 back record holder is on the team so hey, maybe one of the women that beat her could do it. Douglass is just as close as any of the men to their records, but has swam the 2 breast like four times. Maybe Regan Smith also has a
… Read more »Katie Ledecky has posted a sub 1:54 in the women’s 200 meter freestyle once in her career and that was without swimming the women’s 1500 meter freestyle at a major international competition.
Phoebe Bacon and Rhyan White are not breaking Regan Smith’s world record in the women’s 200 meter backstroke.
Regan Smith has never posted a sub 2:05 in the women’s 200 meter butterfly. Time to pump the brakes.
The more pressing question is can bacon or white beat McKeown in the 200 back and what a kick in the gut would it be if curzan shocked the field and won the 100 back ?
You are most likely asking Bacon and/or White to post a sub 2:05 in the women’s 200 meter backstroke. There is a famous book authored by Cornelius Ryan entitled “A Bridge Too Far” that is apropos.
Claire Curzan is not winning the women’s 100 meter backstroke after swimming in the final of the women’s 4 x 100 meter freestyle relay; swimming in the heats, semifinals, final of the women’s 100 meter butterfly; swimming in the heats, semifinals of the women’s 100 meter backstroke. I’m tired just listing the events prior to the final of the women’s 100 meter backstroke.
Awe your forgetting Missy Franklin won the 100 back in 2012 and 2013 she swam the same events but more meters (she didn’t swim the fly but the 200 free instead) no 50 fly she swam the 800 relay… curzan got speed… I think she’ll surprise us in one ore 2 events…
Claire Curzan did not even beat Regan Smith in the women’s 100 meter backstroke at the 2022 Phillips 66 International Team Trials. Furthermore, the women’s 100 meter backstroke is the first event on Regan Smith’s schedule at the 2022 FINA World Aquatics Championships.
WHY DO YOU WRITE LIKE THIS.
I’m sorry but it’s like an adbot come to life.
Is sub 2:05 really that absurd for Bacon or White to do? 2:05.0 and 2:05.1 from trials is awfully close
I begrudgingly give credit where credit is due. Kaylee McKeown has already posted five sub 2:05 times in the women’s 200 meter backstroke:
2:04.28, 2:04.31, 2:04.49, 2:04.64, 2:04.68
https://www.fina.org/swimming/rankings?gender=F&distance=200&stroke=BACKSTROKE&poolConfiguration=LCM&year=all&startDate=&endDate=×Mode=ALL_TIMES®ionId=all&countryId=
It’s not a difficult analysis. The slowest one is the most beatable, because you have more time to make up vital hundredths and tenths. 200 breaststroke was the most recently defeated record and it’s likely the next one to fall also.
I didn’t realize we were still talking about Ledecky breaking world records. My insistence before Rio was that Rio would be her absolute peak. I’ll stick with that. I don’t see her breaking 400 or 800. But the trend now during her mid 20s is clear cut: Her first race in a long meet is her best opportunity. It’s really a stretch to project a very fast historical time beyond that first race.
In th case of the women’s 200 meter freestyle, the reference was the American Record set by Allison Schmitt not the World Record set by Federica Pelligrini.
The first race for Katie Ledecky is the women’s 400 meter freestyle whether it is at the FINA World Aquatics Championships or the Summer Olympic Games. It remains to be seen whether Anthony Nesty can undo the damage done by Greg Meehan.
I also don’t foresee Katie Ledecky breaking the world record in the women’s 800 meter freestyle or the women’s 1500 meter freestyle. However, I do foresee the opportunity to restack Top 10 All-Time Performances in the two aforementioned events.
I didn’t say any of them were likely, just more likely than any of the men’s. (Like, aside from Dressel in all of our dreams, who’s going sub 1:43 in the 2 free? I can’t even make a plausible story out of them.)
I’m also sorta looking past this year, too. (So like, Regan Smith re-breaking her record, everything else I said about the other events, etc etc.)
*everyone’s face when thinking about Katie Ledecky going more WRs
Oh, come on! Katie Ledecky was not that far off from the world record in the women’s 400 meter freestyle at the Tokyo 2021 Olympics.
The women’s 4 x 100 meter freestyle relay has seriously regressed from 3:31.72 in 2017 to 3:31.02 in 2019 to 3:32.81 in 2021.
I’d back Molly O’C, Hannah Casey, Meg Harris, Olivia Wunsch to beat this current crop of Freestylers from the US
That’s a no brainer.
The USA needs four astounding teenagers to supplement Curzan and Huske in the women’s 4 x 100 meter freestyle relay. Gretchen Walsh failed to deliver; Amy Tang, Grace Cooper, Maxine Parker were nowhere to be found (reference 2019 World Junior Swimming Championships).
Fun fact:
3:32.31 in 2013 to 3:32.81 in 2021. Simply unacceptable. Greg Meehan sure can motivate the troops [sarcasm].
I would call the move from 3:31.72 (2017) to 3:31.02 (2019) a progress but not a regress as you call it. Are you sure that data you are playing with is accurate? Or you just made a typo. Where? Because the difference between max and min times is very insignificant to make such a global conclusion. It could be simply a matter of poorly/perfectly performed exchange part of relay race.
The time posted in 2021 was slower than the time posted in 2017 and 2019.
A thought that I had about the 50s being better than the 200s: it has to do with the 100s. I think that as races got faster, the realization came along that it’s easier to take time off the first 50 than the second. The improved emphasis on front end speed and power translates to better all out sprinting and seriously hurts 200s and 400s. I love the fly and die strategy but that still requires endurance. My opinion is that the only way anyone approaches the men’s 200/400 wr at this point is going fly and die.
@Braden Keith, when will USAS announce the selection criteria for Fukuoka 2023? Do you think we’re gonna have similar trials next June?
Also, when is Caeleb Dressel coming to the pod?
We wanna know:
#TeamRemel #Project20.7
I have no realistic guesses. With things changing so much, I think USA Swimming has been forced to make it up as they go. Deadlines for things like that are fluid, at best.
Remember that we didn’t get Worlds 2022 selection criteria until *gulp* two weeks before the meet.
June ‘23 Trials
Hunter. If he wants to go pro, that is cool. It is an individual decision.
200s-I think emphasis on the 50s hurt the 200s. You called out the WRs and most are pretty much of a reach.
Claire and Torri-huge schedule with relays but they are young and the meet is 8 days!
Youth development-It is a tough call to let an AG coach go somewhere else. Usa swimming does pay the same medal money to the developmental coach forever…as long as swimmer is still earning it.
Summer Nationals-it will be fast but I imagine the Dual in Pool selection will be based off fastest time from Trials or Worlds or Nationals….not just Nationals. But I… Read more »
Without Ariarne Titmus at the 2022 FINA World Aquatics Championships, Katie Ledecky is the favorite to win the women’s 400 meter freestyle. The women’s 200 meter freestyle may be a bridge too far unless it’s a slow final, which was the case at the 2015 FINA World Aquatics Championships (1:55.16).
Ledecky won’t swim the 200 individually.
That was the case at the 2013 FINA World Aquatics Championships.
I predict that will be the case at the 2024 Summer Olympics. The women’s 200 FR – 1500 FR double/double (heats/final) is too overwhelming. This assumes the same schedule of events as the Tokyo 2021 Olympics.
That is what I suggested
Thanks for the downvotes.
Why is the Junior Pan Pac article taking so long to write? Are spots still not finalized?
The team has not been announced.
Junior Nationals camp next week
The team won’t be announced till the 16th but the selection criteria was announced. Of course not everyone who can attend will attend as some could be unavailable, can’t meet the commitments, etc.
As a first pass it seems that for the Men all of the Priority 1 and Priority 2 kids would make it (19 in total) and then Owen McDonald in the 100 Back as the only Priority 3 swimmer due to his fastest “percentage of FINA A QT” which brings them to the 20 person limit.
For the Women all of the Priority 1 group would go, but Gracie Weyant and Emma Webber would be the two Priority 2 swimmers… Read more »