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Online sportsbooks around the world have begun posting odds for Olympic swimming, and while most of those odds align with those of the average swimming fan, one has stood out among them as a potential value pick.
Australian Kaylee McKeown has been given -200 odds on several European sportsbooks to win the 200 backstroke, while American Regan Smith has been given +175 odds.
McKeown, the World Record holder, is the current World Record holder, and SwimSwam’s Anya Pelshaw agrees with the books that McKeown is the favorite, selecting the Aussie to win in the official preview.
But the scale of the gap has turned some heads, as this is expected to be one of the more exciting and competitive races on the Olympic schedule.
For those unfamiliar with sports betting, -200 odds means that if you wager $100 and McKeown wins, you get your $100 back plus another $50.
Professional gamblers don’t pick winners; professional gamblers look for “positive expected value,” which is bets where the probability of winning the bet is higher than the odds priced at the sportsbook.
The odds imply that you have to believe that there is a greater-than-two-thirds chance that McKeown wins. If you believe there is a two-thirds chance that she wins, then this would be a neutral expected value pick. You’re looking for positive expected values.
If Smith wins, however, you would receive your original $100 back plus an additional $175. Smith is also a previous World Record holder and her season-best is about seven-tenths behind McKeown’s, though Smith’s time wasn’t done at the US Olympic Trials.
If you think there is a better than 36% chance that Smith wins, then, you would see positive expected value in this pick.
The two are well ahead of the field. Kylie Masse of Canada to win would pay out 11 to 1, as would American Phoebe Bacon.
So again, while McKeown certainly feels like a favorite, Smith, who is swimming as well as she has since the 2019 World Championships where she set that 200 backstroke World Record, certainly feels like a positive expected value pick at 36%.
Full 200 Back Odds from one online Sportsbook based in the UK:
- Kaylee McKeown, Australia – 1/2
- Regan Smith, USA – 7/4
- Kylie Masse, Canada – 11/1
- Phoebe Bacon, USA – 11.1
- Jaclyn Barclay, Australia – 14/1
- Xuwei Peng, China – 20/1
- Liu Yaxin, China – 33/1
- Margherita Panziera, Italy – 33/1
- Honey Osrin, Great Britain – 40/1
- Katie Shanahan, Great Britain – 40/1
- Emma Terebo, France – 50/1
- Anastasia Gorbenko, Israel – 80/1
- Camila Rebelo, Portugal – 80/1
- Carmen Weiler Sastre, Spain – 80/1
- Dora Molnar, Hungary – 100/1
- Africa Zamorano, Spain – 125/1
- Laura Bernat, Poland – 125/1
- Regan Rathwell, Canada – 125/1
- Pauline Mahieu, France – 150/1
- Adela Piskorska, Poland – 200/1
- Aviv Barzelay, Israel – 200/1
- Eunji Lee, South Korea – 200/1
Reading the odds: how much you will win/how much you stake. Left column does not include returning the original stake if you win.
Doesn’t seem high. When I saw this thread I estimated 2/5 or -250 on McKeown
Imagine Regan wins the 2BK and Kylie wins the 1BK.
Crazy insane thoughts but plausible.
“Crazy insane” yes. “Plausible” no
Imagine if Kaylee wins both.
I don’t think either of them winning one vs the other, or one of them winning both is THAT crazy.
Prolly more likely Smith doesn’t win the 200 based on how her 100s vs 200s went at Trials, but still…not ‘crazy insane that she would
She predicted Smith wins the 200 and Masse wins the 100. Both of those are very unlikely.
I wouldn’t say “big favorite” by the time the 200 back comes around, she will have already had heats of the 200 IM, 3 rounds of the 100 back, and maybe some relays. Regan is sorta in the same boat, maybe even a bit of a worse boat with 3 rounds of 200 fly as well. It’s probably gonna be McKeown for the win, but I wouldn’t put it past Smith to throw down something crazy fast, especially with her random 2:03.99 in season 2BK right after a 200 fly.
She went a random 2:03 in season last year too and that 2:03.99 wasn’t on the same day as the 200 fly if that’s what you meant.
Smith will have swam 2 more 200s than Kaylee by the time of the final and her 200s were nowhere near the level of her 100s at trials.
I’ll take Regan any day over Kaylee but Regan hasn’t proved she’s clutch. Kaylee has.
Why do you have to underline your personal opinion. Just say kaylee is the proven performer without being so bias
Because I am biased.
I think anyone who watched that 200 back final at US trials would’ve noticed Regan swam pretty much within herself, if her 100 was anything to go by Kaylee starts as favourite but this time it will be closer
Sportsbet in Australia has Josh Yong as 4th in the 100 Breast odds. Do they know something we don’t?
Meanwhile Williamson, who is a full 0.7 faster is tied 7th.
Some strange odds.
Also Haughey has odds despite not being entered in the event, and Meilutyte has no odds.
Shannon Rollason has mentioned on his podcast that Josh was looking very good in training in Canet …
Fallon, Marchand, Watanabe, Dong and more are missing from the odds so it’s not so surprising he’s 4th.
This is for the 100 breast. Are any of them swimming it?
These seem like the correct odds given that when the finals of the 200 back roll around, Smith will have swum five hard 200’s in the preceding two days. (Three 200 fly’s, and two 200 backs.) If they were both 100% it would be different, but….
McKeown will have a 200IM earlier that day while Smith will be fresh.
I don’t think the odds are affected by Smith’s schedule. I think McKeown having a 66% chance to win based on performance seems about right.
We been knew.
The odds are fine; in the 100 back, they are equally favored. There have been some significant opportunities to make money:
– Kos was 4 to 1 in the 200 back, now 2 to 1.
– Sjostrom was 1.55 to 1 in the 50 free, now 1.25 to 1.
– Popov was 6 to 1 in the 100 free, now 3 to 1.
– Popov was 1.45 to 1 to win the 200 free, now 1.30 to 1.
– Alexy was 14 to 1 in the 100 free, now between 5 to 7 to 1.
– Finke was 3.75 to 1 in the 800 free, now 2.75 to 1. Also, Short is 3.75 to 1,… Read more »
Popovici?
I didn’t know Popov had come back from retirement. I also didn’t know he’s added the 200 FS to his schedule.
the Russian Rocket has returned! Pan, Guiliano, Dressel, McEvoy, D-pop, Chalmers, Alexy, Grousset, and Matty Rich are shaking in their boots.