TritonWear and SwimSwam are bringing you the best in swimming race analysis. With the power of TritonWear, you can have an in-depth analysis of your practice every day with zero effort. Today we are having a closer look of one of the most impressive swimmers of all times. A man, a Legend: Michael Phelps.
Michael Phelps is the greatest Olympian of all time. Over the course of his career he competed at five different Games, earned an astounding 28 Olympic medals (23 of which are gold), and shattered many world records in the process. His accomplishments are unparalleled in the sporting world.
The 200 M butterfly is Phelps’ signature race. He’s competed in the event at each of the past five Olympic Games: Sydney 2000 where he finished fifth, Athens 2004 where he won gold, Beijing 2008 where he won gold again, London 2012 where he lost to Chad le Clos and settled for silver, and most recently Rio 2016 where he reclaimed the 200 butterfly title with another gold.
While analyzing metrics here at TritonWear, we started wondering – how would the Phelps of the Rio Olympics compare if he were to race a past version of himself? In the spirit of theoretical epic showdowns, we pitted Phelps against himself in the 200 butterfly in each of his five Olympic Games. Check out the analysis below:
Phelps of 2008, the one that really tore up the record books, is the clear winner in 1:52.03. He split the race exceptionally well, with only a 0.06 drop-off between his third and fourth 50 to bring the race home much stronger than his competitors. He also had the greatest average distance per stroke and efficiency over the 200m race. This was Phelps in his prime.
But interestingly enough, Phelps of 2008 wasn’t the strongest in every metric across the board. Veteran Phelps of 2016 spent the most time underwater – the mark of a seasoned champion. Phelps of 2004 maintained the highest stroke rate on the back half of the race while Phelps of 2012 and Phelps of 2000 were both exceptionally consistent in their stroke rates and stroke counts respectively.
It was the oldest competitor, Phelps of 2016, who took the race out fastest on the first 50 with a blistering 24.85. But his older body couldn’t maintain the pace and he dropped back to bronze medal position at the finish, with the slowest split on the last 50 by a large margin. The youngest competitor, Phelps of 2000, swam the race with an opposite strategy, moving quite conservatively on the front half before turning faster than anyone on the final turn, spending only 0.62 seconds on the wall to somewhat close the gap on his competitors.
Comparing Phelps’ performance metrics at different stages of his career isn’t just interesting – it’s educational. Just think about what you could learn from racing yourself!
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It’d be interesting to hear from Phelps why he went out so fast in Rio. Did he think he might have been able to get close to his WR? (He clearly thought he had a chance at the 200IM WR; you can see the disappointment on his face when he sees his time.) Did he think it would psych out those particular opponents? Or did he just realize that he was gonna die no matter what, so he might as well get out in front before that happened?
He was in the best physical shape of his life, but he just died at the end. Maybe he was over trained or maybe just a little old to come back in 29.2. I remember after he went 1:52.94 at 2015 nationals, he said he didn’t do enough 2 fly training, and we know he really grinded after to go even faster. Bowman even said that he could approach his world record times, and I remember a lot of people thought he would.
I remember Phelps being really excited at 2015 Nationals, saying that if he could go that fast with only that much training, he was really excited what he could do with another year under his belt. But I also remember an interview he and Bowman did closer to the Olympics, where Phelps was asked about his goals and said it would be nice to go a best time, and Bowman was like “well, we have to keep in mind that those best times were done under really special conditions, and we can’t necessarily expect everything to come together like that again.”
There’s also a lecture by Bowman where he went through a race-pace set they did right before every… Read more »
I Think Mike would win
Can some introverted nerd PLEASE create a 3D rendition of these 5 Phelpses (sp?) racing each other in the pool? And with those 3 empty lanes in the heat, you could throw in LeClos along with projected 200 flies for Cavic and Schooling for the LOL.
I could, but I won’t since you called me an introverted nerd!
Extroverted nerd?
Can you please, i would love to see it. And i dont think youre an introverted nerd if you do, just a great person haha
Schooling did a 1:55 in a past life, so at least he’d be in frame. Cavic’s lane would just show a tombstone.
I wonder what a collection of all his 100 fly’s look like.
Slow, slow, slow, wait a minute, fast. Pretty much on repeat.
Aww look at 2000 Michael he’s so cute 😍
Well Phelps was like a comeback kid when he was 15 and 16. He mowed people down the last 50.
I think it was more that he swam it differently. If you watch that video from his first record performance the under water shots show a strong consistent kick throughout and his competitors dying and trying to hold on. It’s like the change in distance races with a 6 beat kick throughout, where years ago it wasn’t used.
What about Phelps vs. shark?
Still can’t believe Phelps 2012 got out-touched.
Considering his shape, really far from ideal as showed in the 400 IM on the first day of competition, he swam a very good 200 fly: unfortunately he missed, arriving long, all the turns and missed the finish as well. Unlucky race.
Yeah, I just find it unreal that, had a few things aligned slightly differently, MP could have won 5 Olympic 200 flys in a row.
But of course, if my grandmother had wheels…
Do go on…
I’ve never done any type of organized swimming events but I hear people on here talk about missed turns and long finishes. It seems to happen frequently. My question is how do these professionals you have been swimming for years and putting in thousands of meters a day make those type of mistakes frequently? I thought they would have pacing and turns down very well. thank you for your insights.
I agree with Beach Bum J! Every time one of the swimmers I coach misses a turn, everyone has to do a 200 Fly at the end of practice. Great way to build comraderie and stamina. This past Saturday they had to do 7!
Turns come down to hitting the stroke count though. 1 miss catch in a stroke and the wall is going to be different. I dont think 200flys is an answer to this. Understanding catch awareness and body awareness is the way to go. Sloppy 200flys at the end of practice is only going to make this problem worse. As a coach, i try to lean away from this. I want to explain why this happens and how to compensate for it.
pretty sure that was a joke man
Free and back are easy to hit the wall on a full stroke. Breast is similar to fly but there is a glide phase in breast, so it’s fairly easy to adjust your last 1-3 strokes to allow yourself to hit the wall on a full stroke.
Fly is difficult to shorten or lengthen your stroke length coming into the wall. To some degree your stroke length is the same until your last stoke into the wall, and you hope you hit the wall on a full stroke. Your stroke length is what it is.
We see a lot of the top swimmers ‘mess up’ their fly turns because of this. I wouldn’t consider it a ‘messed up… Read more »
One key variable is that the actual race pace turn, particularly with the distractions of the moment (in this case the Olympic final), and particularly the last wall of a 200 fly, are rarely duplicated in practice. Timing a wall at 70-90% of top speed without a competition suit is going to make you proficient at doing turns at 70-90% top speed.
Haha you would think so. But swimming is hard! It requires very subtle adjustments in stroke leading into a wall, to hit it perfectly.
A 1:53.0 was very solid considering the mental and physical shape he was in. Missed the podium in the 400 I.M. and his 100 fly was only a 51.2. It really seemed like Le Clos wanted it more.
I’d also add that LeClos is one of the greatest flyers across all courses and distances (Spitz is probably the greatest) in history. It’s not like Phelps lost to a scrub.
I kinda feel like le Clos would have become a much, much better swimmer if he got the silver and Michael the gold, with the margin as close as it was. Le Clos had an incredible improvement rate up until London, and carried that a bit into ‘13 and ‘14 but mainly just in scm. His lcm didn’t improve much since then apart from the occasional sprint or side event pb, which aren’t his natural specialty. He also seemed more versatile back then having swum the 200/400im and backstroke too.
I mean he said it himself it was his big dream to win Olympic gold and beat Phelps and boom he got it first try at 19 yo. Still… Read more »
He did win silver in the 200 free at Rio. It’s not like he punted on other events. Phelps made the Olympic team in the 200 back in 2004, just dropped it for the Olympics, and never swam it again. Everyone becomes more specialized with age. I think Le Clos started cashing in, as he rightly should’ve after London, and increased visibility through all the SCM events made a difference with sponsors.
Also, would give him props for not Schooling it for the rest of his career after his upset gold.
It’s even weirder when you realize that he won gold in 2016, despite going faster in 2012 (where the 2012 gold medalist didn’t even medal, despite being at an age where he should be in his prime).
The amazing thing is that Phelps manage to get second, given how poor his race was technically. Also his spotty training, as we later learned from his coach, should’ve kept him out of the final altogether. But he is the greatest there ever was, and can get away with things that others can’t, from a performance standpoint.
One could argue though that without that silver medal upset, there would’ve never been a 2016 comeback. I think the demons from losing that 200 fly were the catalyst to his return.