Michael Phelps is about to explode onto the competitive swimming scene again. We all know this. It’s not a secret, though no one will officially go on-the-recond about the exact date and time. The video above was posted by a lot of major media outlets and will continue to be posted in the coming weeks.
According to our sources, Phelps will compete at the 2014 Arena Grand Prix at Mesa, but we cannot confirm this. We can, however, guess the events in which he’ll test the waters if he does race in Mesa, Arizona April 24-26th.
Since Phelps hasn’t raced since the 2012 London Olympic Games, my guess is he’ll test the 100 free, 100 fly, and 200 IM. According to his coach, Bob Bowman, Phelps is in shape, but not training his pre-London (or Beijing) workload. My three picks are obvious, and, frankly, don’t matter. What do you think? Could Phelps surprise us with a 50 free or 100 back? Could he go back to his standby event for the test, the race that netted him a spot on his first Olympic Team in 2000, the 200 fly? Will Phelps warmup only, maybe do a time trial? Honestly, I’d be happy if he did a 50 of sidestroke.
Whatever he swims, whenever he swims it, the comeback will be a success in my book. Michael Phelps standing on any pool deck is good for the sport.
Wow, Phelps at 15 is the physical equivalent to Michael Andrew at 12.
If you see Thorpe at his First WR he looks like even more of a kid than Phelps..
Phelps does not have the front speed for a 50 free… 100 free is tough.. too risky for something he may not even qualify for individual spot.. 100 fly/200 IM is the best bet.. with 100 Fly dealing with le Clos and 200 IM with Locthe..
I think Phelps will swim 100 free at least to get the relay spot.
My prediction is that in 2016 Olympics trials, he will swim these events:
– 100 fly and 200 IM, in order to four-peat.
– 100/200 free to get in the relays.
my prediction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_fBR7ksR3o
Mel, great prediction! 🙂
The only difference is that I’m not as optimistic as you are in Phelps’ chance to qualify in individual 100 free. He can do it and has as big chance as the other sprinters, but Dressel will be at the beginning of his peak and Adrian/Feigen will still be at their peak, age-wise.
But if Phelps can swim 47.4, then yes. he’ll qualify individually. However, at this moment I’m sticking with my prediction of Phelps swimming 5 events in Rio (100 fly, 200 IM and all three relays).
“Lochte seems to know more than he is letting on”
Too right! It was so obvious. Lochte is not the best actor around… ahem..
I also beleive they are planning the future safely and only 100’s in meets for now . As others have felt allready , 100 fly + 100 free is more than enough for the first meet since 2012 . Let’s see how it unfolds ; it’s gonna be exciting anyway .
“My goal is to win a gold medal in Athens, and qualify in more than one event.”
6 gold medals, qualified in 9 events including relays. I guess he did alright…
And thanks for the video.
I had never watched it.
Very funny.
Am I the only person who suspect that Phelps and Bowman had already planned the short “retirement” all along?
This is from knowing that both Phelps and Bowman have always been extremely meticulous and well-planned in their preparations.
Wouldn’t surprise me. Would’ve made London a bigger deal (it’s his last meet!) esp considering he wasn’t up to his ’07-’08 self AND it’ll make his “comeback” a big deal, too.
If it means no one cares in Rio, who knows? The Eagles are on their 30th “farewell” tour, not like this is unprecedented.
We are on April 1.
I’m careful to possible April Fools on swimswam. 😆
And if Michael comes back, I see him only in the 100 fly in individual and in the 100 free for the relay. Perhaps the 200 IM but it requires much more training.
I think he’ll Stick to 100 events nothing more to start. My guess is he hasn’t prepared and trained enough for each stroke to make his debut.
Bowman usually likes to play it safe and is selective in what he wants him to swim only when Michael is prepared.
Someone mentioned on a previous post how much stronger and more muscle Michael Andrew is then Phelps at the same age.. I can see what they mean now.
If Bowman isn’t down playing the workload….100s are it. I could see Bowman down playing it, however, and Phelps hitting the pool very fit. We’ll see….
Swimz- yes, it’s definitely noticeable, but also to be expected due to differences in the way they train. A 15 year old doing monster yardage isn’t going to have the tone of a 15 year old exclusively doing sprint training.
Mel- I agree, I think Bowman has got to be downplaying it, for a number of reasons. While it’s understandable to us if he actually is out of shape, a mainstream news outlet would see a 53 second 100 fly and put out “PHELPS 4 SECONDS OFF RECORD, DOES HE STILL HAVE WHAT IT TAKES?” I think they would try to avoid that. Additionally, I think he knows that just by mentioning that Phelps might do a meet, a massive… Read more »
Mainstream media don’t care about times because times don’t mean anything to the layperson. They care whether he wins or loses.
I’m also skeptical about the statement that Andrew is more muscular because he does more sprinting. I don’t believe you can be that muscular at that age by only swimming. I suspect drylands are involved.
DL: Good point, the mainstream media don’t know times at all and will only focus on him winning. When he does perform in his debut, headlines and discussions will occur on major networks like ESPN. These journalists won’t know the times, only judge and base their commentary on how he places in the meet. This is why Bowman and Phelps will play the meet “safe” when they select events to swim.
Times were just an example. Whether you’re talking about times or places, it’s the same thing. What I was trying to say is if Phelps performs at a level below that which we’ve come to expect from him (either by adding or by not winning), the media is going to make a big deal about this, and so Bowman/Phelps/NBAC is downplaying his fitness.
You can be as skeptical as you’d like, but sprinting builds more muscle, that’s a fact. Additionally, as much of his tone is caused by having no fat as it is him having more muscle. He’s ripped, but his muscles aren’t huge. Although that too will change as he continues to develop.
And as far as dryland being involved, it’s entirely possible that the Andrews are breaking off from Dr. Rushall’s theories in some respects. However, I don’t think that he could train two practices per day, working on every event, plus lifting, and still go best times every weekend. Maybe they found a way of making it work, or maybe P2Life is better than we’re giving it credit for. Otherwise, though, they’d have to sacrifice something in order to fit in dryland without wearing MA down.
I can assure you Michael Andrew does not do any dry land training. In the summer he wakeboards (he considers that “wet training” but living in Kansas with freezing lakes, jumping on trampoline with snow is the only other “semi dry” activity Michael enjoys.
The Andrew’s believe P2Life helps Michael recover faster between practices and provide superior nourishment during grueling pre-lim final meets. Look at Michael’s continuous improvement since he started using P2Life. You cannot train USRPT without proper nourishment and you cannot train USRPT when your body is broken down from dry-land training that does not transfer to the pool – Andrew’s follows Doc on this 100%.