ISL 2020 Grand Final: Who’s Got the Upper Hand After Day 1? (Data)

2020 INTERNATIONAL SWIMMING LEAGUE – FINAL

• Saturday, November 21: 2:00 PM – 4:00 PM CET (8 AM – 10 AM U.S. Eastern, 10 PM – 12 AM Japan)
• Sunday, November 22: 6:00 PM-8:00 PM CET (12 PM-2 PM U.S. Eastern, 2 AM-4 AM Monday J+1 Japan)
• Duna Arena – Budapest, Hungary
• Short Course Meters (SCM) format
• ISL Technical Handbook
• 2020 ISL Scoring Format
• 2020 ISL Prize Money and Bonuses
• How To Watch
• Teams: Energy Standard / Cali Condors / London Roar / LA Current
• Day 1 Start Lists
• Omega Results

The Cali Condors have taken a substantial lead over the defending champions Energy Standard headed into day 2 of the International Swimming League’s 2020 Grand Final.

Buoyed by World Record performances from Caeleb Dressel in the 100 fly and 50 free, plus another by the women’s 400 medley relay, the Condors are in command of the meet heading into Sunday’s deciding competition. With the ‘skins’ choice coming for them on Sunday in the women’s events, and Lilly King still unbeaten in ‘skins’ breaststroke, the Condors have to feel good about their chances at winning.

ISL Scores After Day 1 of the 2020 Grand Finale

1. Cali Condors – 267
2. Energy Standard – 239.5
3. London Roar – 199.5
4. LA Current – 177

With London holding the ‘skins’ choice in neither event, they aren’t technically out of the race for the title, because they have some swimmers who could pull ‘skins’ upsets, but it seems unlikely that they or LA Current will have enough to fight back in and win.

That makes this a 2 team battle, and the momentum from day 1 will have to change dramatically for Cali to lose.

Here’s how day 1 turns out if we compare it to how it would have played out if we had simply scored the day 1 results of the semifinals.

The math shows what’s clear: Cali Condors just needed some rest and have gone after it. They were projected to be 27 points behind London after day 1, and instead they’re 67.5 points ahead. London has employed some interesting tactics (leaving Kira Toussaint, the World Record holder, out of the 50 back), and has put up a few smokescreens about their entries (Duncan Scott was in the 50, moved to the 200 IM), but all of that strategy has not played well for them so far in the standings.

So what’s going to happen on day 2? It’s bad news for the rest of the league, as Cali were already seeded to outscore everyone else on the 2nd day of the meet, without accounting for how well they performed on day 1.

If things go as ‘seeded’ on day 2, based on semi-final swims, here’s what the scores would be going into the high points ‘skins’ races.

This is not totally out-of-reach for Energy Standard, but they would need to win the men’s event (where they have the choice) and probably would need an upset in the women’s event as well (where they don’t).