How The Cal Men Won NCAAs After Falling To ASU At Pac-12s

2023 NCAA DIVISION I MEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

The California Golden Bears accomplished a rare feat on Saturday at the Men’s NCAA Championships, earning a second consecutive national title despite falling short of winning the conference crown three weeks earlier.

The Cal men came into this year’s Pac-12 Championships as the five-time defending champions, but were dethroned by the upstart Arizona State Sun Devils, who have seen a program revival since the appointment of Bob Bowman as head coach in April 2015.

ASU finished fifth at the 2015 Pac-12s, more than 500 points back of victorious USC, but have steadily progressed under Bowman’s watch, placing fourth for four straight years from 2017 to 2020, and then after the entire team redshirted the 2021 campaign, the team placed third last year, though still over 200 points (201.5) back of champion Cal.

At this year’s championships, the Sun Devils had an incredible performance to claim their first-ever conference title, winning six individual events—three coming from Leon Marchand—and having nine swimmers score 40 or more points to ultimately oust the Bears by 78.5 points.

At NCAAs, however, Cal came through to win a second straight title with 482 points, 52 clear of the Sun Devils, who kept the team race tight throughout the entire meet and set another program best with their runner-up finish.

Cal winning the national title after not winning the conference championship was a rarity, but it’s not the first time it’s happened in men’s college swimming.

TEAMS TO WIN NCAAS AFTER NOT WINNING CONFERENCE – MEN

School Year Conference finish Conference Winner Gap at Conference Conference Winner’s NCAA Placement
Michigan 1938 2nd at Big Tens Ohio State 8 pts 2nd (1 pt back)
Michigan 1957 2nd at Big Tens Michigan State 8 pts 3rd (17 pts back)
Michigan 1961 2nd at Big Tens Indiana 3.7 pts Did not compete
Ohio State 1945 2nd at Big Tens Michigan 13 pts 2nd (8 pts back)
Ohio State 1962 3rd at Big Tens Indiana 82.8 pts Did not compete
Cal 1979 3rd at Pac-12s USC 28.5 pts 2nd (60 pts back)
Cal 2011 2nd at Pac-12s Stanford 47 pts 3rd (90 pts back)
Cal 2012 2nd at Pac-12s Stanford 131.5 pts 3rd (109 pts back)
Cal 2023 2nd at Pac-12s Arizona State 78.5 pts 2nd (52 pts back)
Arizona 2008 3rd at Pac-12s Stanford 116.5 pts 3rd (156.5 pts back)
UCLA 1982 2nd at Pac-12s Stanford 11 pts 3rd (28 pts back)

Cal’s NCAA victory marked the 11th time this specific occurrence has happened in college swimming, and the first since 2012. A team winning nationals after losing the conference meet has only ever happened in the Big Ten and Pac-12, and the last six occurrences have all happened in the latter.

It happened five times in the Big Ten between 1938 and 1962, twice including Indiana winning the conference meet before not racing at NCAAs, and over the last 44 years, it’s happened six times in the Pac-12.

How did this happen? Let’s dive into the data.

Below, find the number of points each team scored at both Pac-12s and NCAAs in each event, and the difference between them.

  • Note that the “Difference” column is from Cal’s perspective—that is, if the number is negative, that’s the number of points the Bears lost to the Sun Devils.
  • The “NCAA to Pac-12 Difference” row shows a positive number if Cal made up points on ASU relative to their Pac-12 performance at NCAAs. For example, let’s say ASU scored 25 points in the 500 free at Pac-12s and Cal scored 15. If at NCAAs, ASU scores 25 points and Cal scores 20, this row would show +5, because the Bears made up points compared to Pac-12s.

200 MEDLEY RELAY

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 0 40 -40
NCAAs 30 34 -4
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+36
  • By disqualifying their 200 medley relay at Pac-12s, Cal lost 40 points to ASU in the first event alone. At NCAAs, the Bears only gave up four points to the Sun Devils in the event, making their difference +36 relative to Pac-12 scoring.

800 FREE RELAY

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 34 40 -6
NCAAs 32 34 -2
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+4

500 FREE

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 55 67 -12
NCAAs 22 4 +18
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+30

200 IM

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 42 70.5 -28.5
NCAAs 33 42 -9
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+19.5

50 FREE

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 43 59 -16
NCAAs 33 12 +21
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+37

200 FREE RELAY

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 40 34 +6
NCAAs 34 28 +6
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference

400 IM

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 53 76 -23
NCAAs 31 44 -13
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+10

100 FLY

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 22 41.5 -19.5
NCAAs 7 0 +7
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+26.5

200 FREE

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 37 77 -40
NCAAs 17 47 -30
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+10

100 BREAST

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 85 5 +80
NCAAs 25 0 +25
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
-55

100 BACK

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 52 40.5 +11.5
NCAAs 23 25 -2
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
-13.5

400 MEDLEY RELAY

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 34 40 -6
NCAAs 28 32 -4
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+2

1650 FREE

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 46 51 -5
NCAAs 9 14 -5
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference

200 BACK

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 57 36 +21
NCAAs 43 30 +13
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
-8

100 FREE

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 60 56 +4
NCAAs 33 12 +21
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+17

200 BREAST

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 47 50 -3
NCAAs 14 26 -12
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
-9

200 FLY

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 35 33 +2
NCAAs 31 14 +17
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+15

400 FREE RELAY

Cal Arizona State Difference
Pac-12s 40 34 +6
NCAAs 34 32 +2
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
-4

OVERALL

Cal ASU Difference
Pac-12s 782 850.5 -68.5
NCAAs 479 430 +49
NCAA To Pac-12 Difference
+117.5

What Do The Numbers Tell Us?

Going through each event, we can see that Cal gained ground on ASU relative to their Pac-12 scores (but not necessarily outscoring them) in 11 events at NCAAs, while the difference between the two teams was the same in two races (200 free relay and 1650 free).

The Sun Devils made up ground on the Bears in five races at NCAAs, though that number comes with a bit of a caveat. In two of those events, the 100 fly and 100 breast, ASU scored zero points at NCAAs, but their deficit to Cal in both events was smaller than it was at Pac-12s.

Overall, Cal made up 117.5 points on ASU at NCAAs relative to the gap between the two teams at Pac-12s. After trailing by 68.5 points (swimming only) at the conference meet, they came out on top by 49 at NCs.

The events in which Cal gained the most were the 200 medley relay (36 points), where they DQed at Pac-12s and thus had nowhere to go but up, along with the 50 free (37 points) and 500 free (30 points). In the two free events, ASU had four ‘A’ finalists at Pac-12s but only one scoring swim at NCAAs.

This tells us that the Sun Devils have a lot of swimmers capable of making the top eight at the conference level, but need to swim at their absolute best to earn a second swim at NCAAs. Cal’s swimmers, on the other hand, have a higher ceiling, were able to drop time at NCAAs, and push for finishes inside the top three or four in their events.

DEPTH BREAKDOWN

At NCAAs, the two teams had a very similar number of swims score, but Cal has the edge in every category seen below, other than relay points:

2023 Men’s NCAA Championships

Swimmers With 3 ‘A’ Finals Swimmers With 2 ‘A’ Finals* Swimmers With 2 Scoring Swims* Total Individual Scoring Swims Total ‘A’ Final Swims Relay Points
Cal 3 6 10 27 18 158
ASU 1 4 8 25 14 160

Compare those numbers to Pac-12s, where ASU had 10 swimmers make the ‘A’ final in all three of their individual events, while Cal only had six. The teams once again had a near-identical number of total scoring swims, but at the conference meet, the Sun Devils had the edge in terms of ‘A’ final swims:

2023 Men’s Pac-12 Championships

Swimmers With 3 ‘A’ Finals Swimmers With 2 ‘A’ Finals* Swimmers With 2 Scoring Swims* Total Individual Scoring Swims Total ‘A’ Final Swims Relay Points
Cal 6 11 21 53 34 148
ASU 10 14 17 52 39 188

*Note that these numbers include those with three scoring swims/’A’ finals.

DROPPING RELATIVE TO SEED

One of the primary reasons why Cal was able to overcome ASU at NCAAs is simply due to the fact that on average, their swimmers dropped time from seed, while the Sun Devils did not.

Cal averaged to drop 0.2 percent from their seed time at NCAAs, while ASU added 0.4 percent.

In terms of scoring relative to their seeded points, the Bears outperformed their projection by 25.5 points, while ASU also scored more than their seed by 3.5.

We also can’t overlook Cal’s DQ in the 200 medley relay at Pac-12s, falling 40 points back right from the jump, and they were also outscored in diving at the conference meet by nine points (47-38). ASU had 11 scoring dives at Pac-12s, and although 10 of those weren’t inside the top eight, they still added up and contributed to their conference win.

Between the diving events and the 200 medley relay, Cal lost 49 points to ASU at Pac-12s. Although the Sun Devils won the meet by 78.5 points, it’s clear the swimming competition between the two at the conference meet was very close—tighter than the final score probably suggests.

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Thirteenthwind
1 year ago

Wrong AZ team.

Kevin Hallman
1 year ago

I remember this happening to Kenyon’s men’s team a number of years at DIII championships. They would always qualify all their swimmers for NCAAs mid-season, then just taper for NCAAs while Denison would taper for both the conference and NCAA championships.

I feel like it depends a lot on how far apart NCAAs is from conference championships how well the double taper works. And pac-12s always have the latest conference champs out of the major conferences.

Mike
1 year ago

I’d like to see the avg drop from seed to final placement between CAL and ASU for scoring swimmers. The % of time drop does have value but it’s tougher to quantify (for me at least).

Ton of factors at play here, this was an interesting article!

Mr Piano
1 year ago

Suiting tends to help.

Suiii
Reply to  Mr Piano
1 year ago

They were suited at PACs and NCAAs. So I don’t think suits were the factor here

swimswamfan46290
1 year ago

It’s called not having Kreitler on their team

woods
1 year ago

For comedy’s sake, the title of this article should have remained the same. The body should have just been “They tapered.”

JimSwim22
1 year ago

Why did Indiana skip Nats?

IU Swammer
Reply to  JimSwim22
1 year ago

Post-season ban because the football team cheated at something. Don’t remember the details. But for the ban, IU would almost certainly have won NCAAs those years.

Jimbo
Reply to  IU Swammer
1 year ago

Never heard of that. I assumed Indiana football wasn’t good enough for anyone to look for cheating. Turns out they were bad at football and cheating. Good article:

https://www.crimsonquarry.com/platform/amp/2020/4/9/21215545/what-if-phil-dickens-and-iu-football-hadnt-gotten-the-whole-dang-department-sanctioned

Mark Twang
1 year ago

Good analysis. Good job, Cal!

bob scott
Reply to  Mark Twang
1 year ago

Cal had 10 swimmers unshaved at Pac 12,s
Do not know how many ASU had

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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