How Did We Do? Reviewing SwimSwam’s Final Men’s NCAA Power Rankings

The battles in the team standings at the Men’s NCAA Championships were some of the most exciting we’ve seen in recent memory, as not only was there a competitive race for the team title, but places third through sixth weren’t decided until the final event.

The Cal Golden Bears came through as the pre-meet favorites, winning a repeat national title, while the Arizona State Sun Devils continued their incredible rise by earning the runner-up spot. Texas prevailed with a third-place finish, five points clear of fourth-place Indiana, while NC State edged out Florida to round out the top five.

Below, find the top 25 teams from the championships alongside SwimSwam’s final edition of the Power Rankings, as we take a look at what we got right, what we got wrong, and what we got really wrong.

2022-23 Men’s NCAA Power Rankings

MEN’S NCAA RESULTS VERSUS SWIMSWAM PICKS (TOP 25)

ACTUAL FINISH TEAM SS FINAL POWER RANKING DIFFERENCE
1 Cal Golden Bears 1
2 Arizona State Sun Devils 3 ↑1
3 Texas Longhorns 4 ↑1
4 Indiana Hoosiers 5 ↑1
5 NC State Wolfpack 6 ↑1
6 Florida Gators 2 ↓4
7 Tennessee Volunteers 7
8 Stanford Cardinal 8
9 Virginia Tech Hokies 9
10 Auburn Tigers 11 (tie) ↑1
11 Ohio State Buckeyes 14 ↑3
12 Georgia Bulldogs 15 ↑3
13 Louisville Cardinals 11 (tie) ↓2
14 Texas A&M Aggies 13 ↓1
15 Virginia Cavaliers 10 ↓5
16 LSU Tigers 20 ↑4
16 Missouri Tigers 19 ↑3
18 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 25 ↑7
19 Alabama Crimson Tide 16 ↓3
20 Michigan Wolverines 17 ↓3
21 Minnesota Golden Gophers 18 ↓3
22 USC Trojans NR +
23 Miami (FL) Hurricanes 22 ↓1
23 UNC Tar Heels NR +
23 Wisconsin Badgers HM +

WHAT WE GOT RIGHT

Not much. Well, we correctly predicted Cal to win the title, which they were favored to do, and our final Power Rankings also had Tennessee, Stanford and Virginia Tech correctly slotted in places seventh, eighth and ninth.

WHAT WE GOT WRONG – TOP 10

Our biggest miss inside the top 10 was Florida, as the Gators fell to sixth after we predicted they would finish second. The entire top five scored more points than they were seeded to, while Florida went -66.5 relative to seed, ultimately finishing 16.5 points back of third place.

The general sentiment was that Arizona State had peaked for their conference championship meet and wouldn’t pull off the double-taper at NCAAs, but that ended up being more of the case for the Gators, as the Sun Devils essentially held their seed and were within striking distance of Cal up until the final day.

Florida performed exceptionally well on the relays, leading all teams with 180 points across those five events, but only had two athletes score 20 or more points individually. The teams in the top five all had at least six athletes score 20+ points, with Indiana notably having seven (three of which were divers).

As a result of Florida’s drop, ASU, Texas, Indiana and NC State all finished one spot higher than our prediction, while Auburn also moved up from a predicted t-11th into the top 10.

Dropping out of the top 10 was Virginia, which ended up placing 15th, 49 points back of the 10th-place Tigers. The Cavaliers, who have outperformed their seed in recent years, scored 19 fewer points than they were projected to.

OTHER SURPRISES

Notre Dame moved up seven spots from where we predicted them, as the Fighting Irish scored 47 more points than they were projected to earn their highest finish in program history (18th).

Jack Hoagland led the way with 26 points, while Chris Guiliano and Tommy Janton combined to score the same amount for UND, and they added 10 points on relays.

Propelled by Brooks Curry and 19 diving points, LSU finished four spots higher than we predicted in 16th, tying Mizzou, which finished three spots higher than predicted. Ohio State and Georgia both moved up three spots as well, primarily due to UVA’s drop.

With LSU, Mizzou and Notre Dame all moving up, the teams that dropped were Alabama, Michigan and Minnesota. The Wolverines had the second-worst final score relative to seed, going -49.5, with only Florida lower.

MOVING UP & MOVING OUT

Columbia (21st), Georgia Tech (23rd) and Arizona (24th) were the three teams that we picked in the top 25 that didn’t end up making the cut.

Columbia ended up scoring 12 points to finish in 31st, the Wildcats scored 11 to finish 32nd, and the Yellow Jackets put up just three to finish 35th.

We vastly underestimated USC diving, as the Trojans finished 22nd with 31 points, all coming from Shangfei Wang.

Also moving into the top 25 was Wisconsin, led by Jake Newmark, and UNC, which had 24 of 27 points come from diver Anton Down Jenkins.

FINAL SCORES

TEAM TOTAL INDIVIDUAL SWIMMING POINTS RELAY POINTS DIVING POINTS SCORING INDIVIDUAL COUNT SCORING RELAY COUNT SCORING DIVING COUNT
1 California 482 321 158 3 26 5 1
2 Arizona State 430 270 160 0 26 5 0
3 Texas 384 216 124 44 19 5 7
4 Indiana 379 139 136 104 11 5 6
5 NC State 373.5 215.5 158 0 21 5 0
6 Florida 367.5 173 180 14.5 20 5 2
7 Tennessee 216.5 78.5 106 32 10 4 3
8 Stanford 143.5 43.5 78 22 6 5 2
9 Virginia Tech 133 59 68 6 5 4 1
10 Auburn 127 39 82 6 7 5 1
11 Ohio State 112 32.5 8 71.5 4 3 7
12 Georgia 96 70 26 0 6 3 0
13 Louisville 92 26 66 0 3 4 0
14 Texas A&M 80 32 16 32 4 3 4
15 Virginia 78 8 70 0 2 4 0
16 Missouri 62.5 34.5 28 0 4 3 0
17 LSU 62.5 43.5 0 19 3 0 3
18 Notre Dame 62 52 10 0 7 1 0
19 Alabama 57 21 36 0 4 3 0
20 Michigan 37 17 20 0 3 4 0
21 Minnesota 36 36 0 0 2 0 0
22 USC 31 0 0 31 0 0 2
23 Wisconsin 27 19 8 0 2 2 0
24 UNC 27 3 0 24 1 0 2
25 Miami 27 0 0 27 0 0 3
26 South Carolina 15 0 0 15 0 0 1
27 Utah 14 14 0 0 1 0 0
28 Princeton 13 13 0 0 2 0 0
29 SIUC 13 13 0 0 2 0 0
30 Kentucky 13 13 0 0 1 0 0
31 Columbia 12 0 0 12 0 0 1
32 Arizona 11 0 10 1 0 1 1
33 Pittsburgh 4 1 2 1 1 1 1
34 Penn State 4 4 0 0 1 0 0
35 Georgia Tech 3 3 0 0 1 0 0
36 Air Force 2 2 0 0 1 0 0
37 Towson 2 2 0 0 1 0 0
38 Purdue 1 1 0 0 1 0 0

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Foreign Embassy
11 months ago

Wow. USC not getting a single point from swimming. Their 2015 team must be pissed.

Joe S
11 months ago

How did Arizona do? They are not shown on the results? I’m guessing not well but that’s 5 years in a row, while ASU has flipped places with them and some. One common denominator and somehow he’s still in charge.

mikeh
11 months ago

This may have been, quietly, Eddie Reese’s best coaching. He lost four swimmers in the fall, and still managed to snag third place.

texas fan
11 months ago

I also recall you ranking texas out of the top 5. Really sleeping on them another thing u got wrong

Admin
Reply to  texas fan
11 months ago

I’m sorry that you recall that, but it isn’t the true.

Don’t take my word for it: the information is public:
https://swimswam.com/2022-2023-ncaa-mens-power-rankings-final-edition/

oxyswim
11 months ago

Florida had lights out relays at the men’s meet, and Liendo was great, but they seriously underperformed on the men’s and women’s side at NCs.

Andrew
11 months ago

let us take a look at Cal’s roster:

Hugo Gonzalez: 6th year senior, no business in the NCAA. Joined the team in January after being begged to come back and ring chase, which shouldn’t even be allowed. At least House stayed on one team lol

Henveaux: Another late addition. Acquired through Marsh recruiting violations (shocker)

Bjorn Seeliger: Laughably off at NCAAs. Wait, I thought cal never misses taper? Adds in finals more than Michael Andrew or Carson Foster pre 2022 worlds. Oh, also Curry’s son. Lost cal the 4×1

Reece Whitley: Most raw talented breaststroker I’ve seen coming out of high school, completely ruined by Durden. Begged to come back for a 5th year to ring chase. Has BARELY dropped… Read more »

Anon
Reply to  Andrew
11 months ago

I’m sure they are wiping their tears with the championship trophy.

CraigH
Reply to  Andrew
11 months ago

The hate is strong with this one.

Horninco
Reply to  Andrew
11 months ago

And yet they won…….

Lab Counter
Reply to  Horninco
11 months ago

But ASU men won the dual meet!

James Beam
Reply to  Andrew
11 months ago

How did you do at NCAA’s during your career?

Cheeky boy
Reply to  Andrew
11 months ago

So Gabe Jett, who was not even ranked top 20 in his class, making 3 A finals his sophomore year has no merit? Or Destin Lasco who was an amazing recruit and still continues to get better? Ignorant ass comment

Hmmm ok
Reply to  Cheeky boy
11 months ago

If you payed attention to swimming the summer of 2021, you would’ve known that Jett was going to be a stud when he got to Berkeley. Swimswam just dropped the ball not ranking him. Sure, he has continued to develop well but let’s not act like he was some nobody coming in

About James Sutherland

James Sutherland

James swam five years at Laurentian University in Sudbury, Ontario, specializing in the 200 free, back and IM. He finished up his collegiate swimming career in 2018, graduating with a bachelor's degree in economics. In 2019 he completed his graduate degree in sports journalism. Prior to going to Laurentian, James swam …

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