2025 W. NCAA Previews: Grimes & Cox Look to Spoil a Repeat Gator Party atop the 500 Free

2025 Women’s NCAA Swimming and Diving Championships

• March 19-22, 2025
• Weyerhaeuser King County Aquatics Center — Federal Way, Washington
• Short Course Yards (25 yards)
• Meet Central
• Official Psych Sheets
• SwimSwam Preview Index
• Live Stream

WOMEN’S 500 FREE – By The Numbers

• NCAA Record: 4:24.06 — Katie Ledecky, Stanford (2017)
• U.S. Open Record: 4:24.06 — Katie Ledecky, Stanford (2017)
• American Record: 4:24.06 — Katie Ledecky, Stanford (2017)
• 2024 NCAA Champion: Bella Sims, Florida – 4:32.47

In looking back at the preview of last year’s 500 free, the main storyline was the renaissance of the event at the NCAA level. In 2023, Erica Sullivan‘s 4:35.88 topped the psych sheet, but in 2024, that time would have ranked just 6th.

If 2024 marked the renaissance of the event, then this season signifies a revolution. (to all my history buffs out there, we are skipping over the reformation, and I think the evidence below will be self-explanatory).

Entered Swimmers under 4:36.00

15!

15 swimmers have swum under 4:36.00 this season. That means, on paper, that all but one spot in the finals will be under that mark, and in fact, when compared to the winning time in 2023, Kensey McMahon‘s 4:36.62, the top 16 ranked swimmers have all been under that mark as the #16 seed this year, Georgia’s Abby McCulloh is entered with a time of 4:36.18.

All of last year’s A-finalists return, and with an influx of experienced first-years (and one red-shirt sophomore), it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch of the imagination to see not one but two swimmers under 4;30. Only Katie Ledecky has ever won the 500 free at NCAAs with a sub-4:30 time, but in 2017, Leah Smith did claim the runner-up spot on the podium with a 4:28.90, so it won’t be uncharted territory.

Double Trouble

Last year, Bella Sims entered the meet as the top seed with a time of 4:32.53. While off her personal best of 4:28.64, a time that ranks her as the 4th fastest performer of all time, Sims swam a controlled 4:35.01 to qualify for her first NCAA individual final, in 3rd behind teammate Emma Weyant (4:34.32) and Anna Peplowski of Indiana (4:34.72).  In the finals, Sims launched her attack early, opening up a nearly second lead at the 100 mark, and by the 200 mark, she was leading the competition by over two seconds. Sims would nab the victory and her first NCAA individual title with a time of 4:32.47, a new season best.

Her teammate, Emma Weyant, was 2.2 seconds back at the 200, but as the only swimmer in the field to never split above 28.00, she closed that gap to a little over one second and claimed the podium spot directly below Sims, giving the Florida Gators a massive 37 points.

However, 12 months later, a repeat performance seems unlikely. At the end of the summer one could be led to assume that it would be Sims who would be in more danger of not repeating as champion, as she struggled at Olympic Trials, failing to earn a second swim in any event, whereas Weyant qualified for her 2nd straight Olympics, going on to win her second Olympic medal in the 400 IM in Paris.

Yet Sims returned to the NCAA and picked up right where she left things. At the UGA Fall Invite, Sims was 4:31.06, faster than she was all of last season and, in fact, the result ranks as her 2nd-fastest performance ever. Like last year, Sims eschewed the 500 free at SEC, instead opting to race the 200 IM. While that race did not yield a new personal or college best, her other two individual events did, as she set a new PB in the 200 back, recording a mark of 1:48.28, and claimed victory with a 49.20 in the 100 back. Sims, however, was not done as she nipped under the 49-second barrier leading off the medley relay, becoming the 3rd fastest performer ever in the event with a time of 48.97.

While none of these results directly correlate to her chances at NCAAs in the 500, Sims’ recent performances must spell good chances for the Gator sophomore to repeat as champion and perhaps get back under the 4:30 barrier.

While hyping up Sims’ season may seem as if Weyant’s was bad, it was quite the opposite. Weyant’s 3:59.24 400 IM at SECs is not only her fastest time outside of NCAA but ranks just .24 back of her PB from last year. Her mile time, too, of 15:53.23, is faster than it was at this point last year and ranks as her 2nd-fastest performance ever. However, this said her 500 time at SECs (4:35.58 in prelims and 4:37.98 in finals) ranks just 14th in the psych sheet. It’s not as if she can’t drop time; last year, she went from 4:34.25 to 4:33.70 to finish in 2nd. It’s just that a 4:34 or even 4:33 might not final.

Growing Pains [or lack thereof]

Jillian Cox (photo: Jack Spitser)

While many of the first years that come into the NCAA are hyped up as the next big thing and much more is expected of them by fans (and media), this year’s crop of rookies have big meet racing experience a plenty, and likely will not be overawed or overcome by the NCAA Championships. Foremost among them is UVA first-year and two-time Olympian Katie Grimes.

Before diving into Grimes’ chances, credit must first go to the top seed, Jillian Cox. A red-shirt sophomore at Texas, Cox lit up the swimming world with a 4:30.68 500 at mid-season, lowering her three-week-old PB by nearly four seconds. A month later at Short Course Worlds, Cox picked up a bronze medal in the 1500, with a new personal best of 15:41.29, a swim that makes her the 3rd fastest American ever. While just a little off at SECs in the 500, swimming 4:31.54, Cox did post the fastest 1650 time in the NCAA this year, recording a new PB of 15:30.33, so the top seed, the fastest in fact since Ledecky, should look in fine form to challenge Sims.

That said, again, one should never rest easy with Katie Grimes in striking distance. Hailed as the next great distance star of USA swimming after making the US Olympic team as a 15-year-old back in 2021, Grimes has gone on to win four World Championships medals and an Olympic silver medal all before announcing her college decision this past October. On speaking about the decision, Grimes has said that swimming with UVA “…has been so much fun… and that she has full faith in her training…”

Seeded 4th in the 500 with a 4:32.69 from ACCs, Grimes is the only swimmer in the NCAA with multiple swims under the 4:30 barrier, having done so twice, swimming 4:29.53 in 2022 and then 4:28.27 in December of 2023. Coming from a club program like Sandpipers, many eyes will be on Grimes to see what she can do with a more SCY-orientated focus collegiate season, especially since she joined the team only this semester.

That said, like Cox, Grimes did have some success in Budapest at Short Course Worlds. She nabbed a silver medal in a new PB in the 400 IM, she claimed bronze in the 800 free with a new PB of 8:05.90, a result that also makes her the 2nd fastest American ever. Lastly and certainly not least, Grimes was the 3rd leg on the USA’s World Record Setting 4×200 free relay. All of which happened just one week before she swam a 4:32.19 at Sectionals in California. This means she juggled an eight-hour time difference and swam a time that would have won NCAAs every year since 2021.

It seems unfair to shortchange Cox, the top seed, and Grimes, the fastest competitor, but such is the depth in this event that there are still two other first-years with international experience seeded with the top 8. SEC rivals Tennessee and Florida each lay claim to a Canadian Olympian. Ella Jansen, who trains with Tennessee, is tied as the 6th seed, with a time of 4:34.27 from her B-final win at the SECs. Jansen was teammates with Florida’s Julie Brousseau on Canada’s 4th place finishing 4×200 free relay in Paris, but will square off against her in Federal Way, as Brousseau is the 8th seed, entering the meet with a time of 4:34.59 from her 3rd place finish at SECs. Each having presumably spent much of their training in meters, they are relatively new to yards, but with both of their times being PBs, the pair could easily have more time to drop as both of their programs have had great success with transitioning swimmers into the turn-centric swimming that is yards.

Full House

Aurora Roghair (photo: Jack Spitser)

The fight for a spot in the A-Final is going to be intense; no swimmer can have a slightly off morning and have a chance of making it back amongst the top 8. As it is, we have only discussed two of last year’s A-finalists, and all eight of them are returning. Last year’s 3rd and 4th place finishers find themselves firmly in the thick of it again. Anna Peplowski of Indiana has continued the success of this past summer and has stormed into the NCAA as the #5 seed with a time of 4:33.86, which is not only faster than what won her bronze but is nearly four seconds faster than her seed time last year (4:37.47). Peplowski likely has a better chance of topping the podium in the 200, where she is the top seed.

The same could be said for Stanford’s Aurora Roghair. The senior is seeded highly in the 500, coming in as the 3rd seed, but with the experience of Cox, Sims, and Grimes, she may find herself in a better position in the 1650. That said, Roghair has, like Peplowski, had an incredible season. Last year, she entered the meet with an entry time of 4:36.32, but now she enters with a time of 4:31.63, and she swam at the same meet as Cox’s 4:30.68. The result, a new PB by over two seconds, is a strong sign for the Cardinal, but likely may not be enough against the speed of Sims and Grimes.

Also returning to the mix this year are a trio of Georgia Bulldogs and a pair of Virginia Cavaliers. Rachel Stege, Dune Coetzee, and Abby McCulloh were all top eight seeds last year, with Stege entering the meet as the #2 seed (4:32.87). However, each stumbled a little, with Stege dropping back to finish 7th (4:37.26) and Coetzee going from 5th to 8th (4:40.08). Only McCulloh improved upon her seeding, improving from 8th to 6th (4:37.13), but she will need plenty of luck to do so this year. Despite being seeded a full second faster than she was last year, McCulloh, a senior, finds herself very nearly out of any final, as she sits ranked just 16th. Stege and Coetzee, both seniors as well, have also tumbled down the psych sheet, finding themselves at 6th and 11th, respectively, but Coetzee, like McCulloh, has been faster this year than last year.

Technically, UVA’s Cavan Gormsen is the last returning A-finalist, having finished 5th last March with a time of 4:35.37. This time around, the sophomore finds herself in an unenviable position. Despite swimming a time of 4:35.60 this season, which is only .23 of her PB, she sits just 15th in the psych sheet. Her teammate, Aimee Canny, is in a similar position. Canny, a South African Olympian, entered last year as the #6 seed with a time of 4:36.26. However, she struggled in the prelims, ultimately finishing 17th with a time of 4:39.11. This go around, the junior, despite having gone a PB of 4:35.43 this past December, is seeded just 12th.

Out of this World

Hannah Bellard (photo: Jack Spitser)

It’ll take a lot to break into the top 8, but it’s certainly not an impossibility as several swimmers have been on a tear this year, all desperate to break into that elite pack.

Foremost among them is Michigan’s Hannah Bellard. As a first-year, Bellard was the 16th seed last year, entering the meet at 4:38.44. Hoping to reverse her fortunes from last year, which saw her place 37th with a time of 4:42.96, Bellard has sliced close to four seconds off her PB and sits in the dangerous position of 9th, holding a seed time of 4:34.77. That time was swum at the Georgia Tech Invite, however, and she was just 4:36.96 at Big Tens, so she will be hoping to right the ship. Looking to join her in a course correction is her teammate, Rebecca Diaconescu. An Olympic semi-finalist in the 200 free for Romania, the Michigan first-year who spent some time at the same club as Grimes and Sims, entered college with a PB of 4:46.19, so while another 11-second drop may seem herculean, another second or two could be enough to secure her a 2nd swim.

Like Bellard, USC’s Claire Tuggle has made some drastic improvements upon last year. In 2024, Tuggle was seed-tied at 20th with a time of 4:39.16 but managed to earn a 2nd swim and ultimately set a PB of 4:37.77 in the B final, placing 10th overall. This season, Tuggle, who was a highly touted age-grouper, especially in long-course, put together a strong Big Ten championship hitting PBs in all of her events and claiming 2nd in the 500 free with a time of 4:35.43; a result that would have easily been amongst the top 8 last year at NCAAs last season, but now ranks just 12th on the psych sheets.

The Verdict

It’s a tough call, and of course, fans of any of these swimmers are going to be disappointed by those who are left out of our picks. It is an incredibly hard process to make these predictions, but in looking at past swims and just the overall speed this event has shown this season, all fans should take some comfort in the fact that fast swimming is a positive for all.

With that said, however, we have two real paths to follow. We could go with those that have shown massive improvements this year and judge from those times, or we could look at past precedence and use those to help make the decision and with what we know, it has to be the latter.

While Cox and Roghair are having amazing seasons, and if their times had shown up in any of the NCAA meets from the pandemic on, they would be the easy favorites, the race experience and overall PBs of Grimes and Sims are too hard to ignore. You may say that Sims, last year was off her PB and nothing point to her directly getting under 4:30 again, but I think that with Grimes in the pool, a former teammate, now turned rival (hopefully friendly) the pair will be pushing themselves back under the 4:30 barrier. The argument against the two taking the top spot is that Cox went 4:30 at mid-season and could continue her success and join the pair under the barrier. It’s the age-old question of whether it’s easier to do something extraordinary once or to repeat the feat. In this author’s opinion, it is easier to repeat, so that is why the high-level race experience of Grimes and Sims gets the edge. Between the two, it’s a toss-up. Sims has swum more collegiate meets, but Grimes had plenty of racing in the fall for her club. Grimes wasn’t at her best at ACCs, but she likely wasn’t rested, whereas Sims didn’t swim the 500 free at SECs, so we don’t know what she could have gone, but her 1:39.55 200 free split points to a strong freestyle.

In such a deep field, any of those not picked to make the top 8 still have legitimate shots to make the A-final, and perhaps, in your opinion, more likely shots than some of those listed, but alas, a decision must be made. I’ve been told (several times) that ties are not allowed. Otherwise, I would have considered it for Sims and Grimes. (If they do end up tying, then let this be your notice that I may be insufferable in all future previews.)

SwimSwam’s Picks

Dark Horse – Erin Gemmell (Texas): 4:38.21 –  While there are plenty of other candidates for dark horse, including Gemmell’s teammate Lilly Nesty, who is the 17th seed and the last amongst the seeds with A-cut (no other event hits double digits), Gemmell is getting our pick. Gemmell is the 6th seed in the 200 free and the 10th in the 100 free, but sits 23rd in the 500 with a 4:38.21. Last year, that time would have ranked 15th, and while this means she has plenty of swimmers in front of her, she’ll need to pass. Gemmell has the experience to do so, having made the semifinals of the 200 free in Paris and anchoring the silver medal-winning 4×200 free relay. While the 500 is a different event than the 200 and 400, Gemmell was the 5th seed out of prelims at trials in the 400, placing ahead of Roghair, Grimes, Weyant, Stege, and Sims, so she could be due for a big drop here.