2021 Pac-12 Women’s Championships: Day 3 Ups/Mids/Downs

2021 PAC-12 WOMEN’S SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

TEAM SCORES AFTER DAY 2

  1. Stanford 592
  2. Cal 546.5
  3. USC 413.5
  4. UCLA 389
  5. Utah 369
  6. Arizona 362
  7. Washington State 189

For those unfamiliar with swimming terminology, the concept of “Ups” and “Downs” is a good way to track which teams performed best at prelims. In prelims, swimmers qualify for one of three finals heats: the top 8 finishers make the A final, places 9 through 16 the B final and places 17 through 24 the C final. In finals, swimmers are locked into their respective final, meaning a swimmer in the B heat (spots 9-16) can only place as high as 9th or as low as 16th, even if they put up the fastest or slowest time of any heat in the final.

With that in mind, we’ll be tracking “Ups,” “Mids” and “Downs” after each prelims session. “Up” refers to swimmers in the A final, “Mid” to swimmers in the B final and “Down” to swimmers in the C final.

With Stanford leading by just over 40 points after yesterday, Cal has the edge in individual pool events.

Stanford had a big showing with 4 up in the 400 IM, but Cal has 4 up in the 200 free, while they also had a big showing in the 100 back. Overall, Cal has one more A-finalist than Stanford, while Stanford has one more B-finalist. In the C-finals, Cal has six swimmers, while Stanford has none; those C-finals will see Cal swimmers trying to move up on seeds and score towards the top of the final to swing this meet back into Cal’s favor.

Brooke Forde of Stanford is doing a 400 IM/200 free double tonight, in both A-finals, while Isabel Ivey of Cal is doing the 100 fly/100 back double. Stanford won’t get Forde on the final day tomorrow, having hit her event limit, while Ivey still has one more race (and almost definitely an A-final) tomorrow.

USC out-performed UCLA as far as A-finals go, but UCLA went crazy with their supporting cast, getting a whopping 11 swims in B-finals and six in C-finals. Though USC has stronger diving and relays, the Bruins project almost 100 more points in individual events tonight in the pool.

DAY 2 UPS/MIDS/DOWNS

Credit to Andrew Mering for running the numbers.

All 400 IM 100 Fly 200 Free 100 Breast 100 Back
California 13/3/6 2/0/0 2/2/1 4/1/0 2/0/3 3/0/2
Stanford 12/4/0 4/0/0 1/2/0 2/2/0 3/0/0 2/0/0
USC 5/4/1 1/0/0 3/1/0 0/0/0 1/1/1 0/2/0
UCLA 4/11/6 0/3/1 2/1/2 1/1/3 1/2/0 0/4/0
Arizona 3/8/6 0/2/0 0/1/4 1/3/0 1/1/1 1/1/1
Utah 2/5/11 0/1/3 0/1/0 0/1/4 0/1/2 2/1/2
Washington St. 1/5/6 1/2/0 0/0/1 0/0/1 0/3/1 0/0/3

SCORING BREAKDOWN

California Stanford UCLA Arizona USC Utah Washington St.
400 IM 53.0 99.0 57.0 29.0 32.0 34.0 48.0
100 Fly 90.0 55.0 69.0 42.0 92.5 11.5 2.0
200 Free 118.0 91.0 50.5 70.0 0.0 25.5 7.0
100 Breast 66.0 75.0 62.0 44.0 53.0 18.0 44.0
100 Back 90.0 50.0 62.0 41.0 28.0 75.0 16.0

SCORED PRELIMS

  1. Cal – 417
  2. Stanford – 370
  3. UCLA – 300.5
  4. Arizona – 226
  5. USC – 205.5
  6. Utah – 164
  7. Washington State – 117

DAY 2 + SCORED PRELIMS

  1. Cal – 979.5
  2. Stanford – 962
  3. UCLA – 689.5
  4. USC – 619
  5. Arizona – 588
  6. Utah – 533
  7. Washington State – 306

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Coach Chackett
3 months ago

Great analysis and quick. Looks like Cal back to the lead tonight.

Editor
Reply to  Coach Chackett
3 months ago

As weird as it sounds, Stanford will likely be leading at the end of the night. The above analysis doesn’t include platform diving as the prelims there won’t be done for a while. Stanford have divers that went 1-2 in that event last year on their team, so they will probably pick up the 17 points that Cal are currently leading them by in the current projection

Taa
3 months ago

Cal using a bunch of C final swims to edge into the lead.

USC_Swammer
3 months ago

If I’m counting correctly, every Trojan who swam this morning made finals, and all but one made A/B finals. Impressed that they’re performing so well with such a small team.

actualreader
Reply to  USC_Swammer
3 months ago

I have two follow-up questions:

1) You expected a small team to have more empty swims than a big team? They only had 10 swims across 5 events
2) Stanford did the same with 16 entries. Cal did the same with 22 entries. Arizona had only 1 swim that didn’t final.

With no Arizona State this year, and with so many teams bringing small rosters, it just isn’t that impressive. There were only 20 entries in the 400 IM – literally everyone made it back. Same is true with the 100 back.

Only 2 swimmers didn’t make it back in the 200 free (a 1:53.2 and a 1:58.02). Only 2 swimmers didn’t make it back in the… Read more »

Taa
Reply to  actualreader
3 months ago

Yeah I don’t think you evaluate any of these teams based on empty swims but 5/4/1 looks a lot better than 4/11/6 but UCLA outscores USC by a lot today. They should have only scored to 16 places this year. Cal’s margin of victory may end up being the sum of their C final scoring which most of these swims don’t even make the C final when everyone is at full roster size and ASU shows up.

Curiousgeorge
Reply to  Taa
3 months ago

Still trying to figure out how 5/4/1 looks more impressive than 4/11/6

Taa
Reply to  Curiousgeorge
3 months ago

do you want a 3point shooter who hits 5/10 shots or 4/21 shots? Who is better. You are saying the guy that hits 4 shots is just as goods as the guy who hits 5 shots? It only took him 11 more tries and he still comes up 1 short.

Curiousgeorge
Reply to  Taa
3 months ago

Sure let’s go with this comparison. Would you rather have a team that scores 5/10 3 pointers, 4/10 layups, 1/10 free throws or a team that is 4/21 in 3 pointers, 11/21 in layups, and 6/21 free throws?

Hate to break it to you, but what matters is the points on the board.

Also have to pick a side can’t have it be USC beats UCLA with only x amount of swimmers then flip the narrative of UCLA beats USC, but usc only has x amount of swimmers.

West Coast Swammer
Reply to  Taa
3 months ago

USC brought most of its swimmers back to the team this year. They just have a small team, probably because Salo left them high and dry. How is that changing next year? I remember there were three or so women honored at Senior Day, so I assume those are lost. I think two team members didn’t come this season but will undoubtedly be here next season. Are there 10 new swimmers coming next year? I can only think of a couple that I know committed. Maybe they are fishing out of the transfer pool in a few weeks?

The fact that so many UCLA and Cal swimmers came to campus speaks VOLUMES about how much team means to those ladies.… Read more »

Taa
Reply to  West Coast Swammer
3 months ago

Its a cost of attendance thing. USC is 70K a year now. They aren’t getting many swimmers paying their way when a UC schools is 1/2 price. USC did implement a free tuition thing for low income people now so maybe they will catch up a bit like Stanford does already. Stanford can slip in a few kids on financial aid that don’t count as scholarsips.

USC_Swammer
Reply to  West Coast Swammer
3 months ago

It looks like SC has 9 swimmers on their roster not competing- Baker, Famous, Henderson, Jorgenson, Pavlopoulou, Sand, Santander, Transom, and Yule. Then I believe they expect Jade Hannah, Gigi Sasseville, and Alice Waldow to join next year. So it will definitely be a very different team (assuming all of them are still planning to go there).

I don’t think it’s appropriate to say someone’s team means less to them because they decided not to compete during COVID. We all have reasons for what we do. Again, I’m just here to send positive vibes.

USC_Swammer
Reply to  actualreader
3 months ago

No expectations or comparisons to the other teams, just wanted to send some positive energy for my alma mater 🙂

About Karl Ortegon

Karl Ortegon

Karl Ortegon studied sociology at Wesleyan University in Middletown, CT, graduating in May of 2018. He began swimming on a club team in first grade and swam four years for Wesleyan.

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