SwimSwam Pulse: Urlando Voted Most Likely Tokyo Medalist From World Jr Boys

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers which World Junior champ on the boys side is most likely to win some sort of medal at the 2020 Olympics:

RESULTS

Question: Which boys World Junior champ is most likely to win a 2020 Olympic medal?

We purposefully left our medal requirement open-ended: not just a medal in their world junior title race, but any sort of Olympic medal. (Heck, they could go win one in skateboarding, though the likelihood is probably pretty small). Here’s the outlook for each member of our poll:

Urlando: It’s probably fair to call Urlando the safest bet for several reasons. First, his season-best of 1:53.84 in the 200 fly actually ranks #3 in the world for the season, meaning he’s a legit individual medal contender without even projecting big improvements. He’s also rising fast, and is a potential member of the U.S. 4×200 free relay, which should win a medal of some kind.

Minakov: The Russian Minakov is also a likely medalist. He was the silver medalist at senior Worlds with his 50.83 in the 100 fly, and ended the season ranked 3rd worldwide, just like Urlando. Minakov might even be a better bet – he’s the likely flyer on Russia’s men’s 4×100 medley relay, with probably less competition domestically than Urlando will have for his spot on the American 4×2.

Grgic: Grgic probably had the best single swim of World Juniors, a 14:46.09 true world junior record in the 1500. But Grgic finished the season ranked just 6th in the world, so he’s got his work cut out for him to win a medal next summer. On the other hand, Grgic is only 16 and still improving very fast.

Foster: The other American in our poll is Foster, the do-everything talent who won the 200 IM (1:58.46) at World Juniors and briefly set the world junior record in the 400 IM (4:13.39) at U.S. Nationals. The upside for Foster is that the 200 IM seems wide open at the American domestic and world levels right now, with Michael Phelps retired, Ryan Lochte aging and Chase Kalisz struggling. (Internationally, the event is open enough that specialists from other events have been able to cross over into medal contention, like backstroker Mich Larkin or freestyler Duncan Scott). The downside is that Foster ranks outside the top 15 in the world for the season and needs major improvement to challenge for an individual medal. He could also push for a 4×200 free relay spot, like Urlando.

Papastamos: The Greek Papastamos broke Foster’s world junior record while winning the 400 IM in 4:11.93 at World Juniors. He finished the year ranked #6 worldwide, and probably should have drawn a better result in our poll than he did. The 400 IM wasn’t terribly fast this year (only two men broke 4:10 all season) and the 18-year-old Papastamos dropped from 4:17.4 to 4:11.9 this season.

Ceccon: Ceccon is another guy who might have a better relay shot than an individual. With Italy rising internationally and Ceccon the team’s top backstroker, he could flow into medal contention as part of a medley relay with young stars Nicolo Martinenghi, Federico Burdisso and Alessandro Miressi. Ceccon is awfully versatile, too. He won the 50 fly at World Juniors in addition to the 100 back, and split 48.5 on a 4×100 free relay. Italy’s senior 4×100 free was fourth at Worlds, and Burdisso could get himself into the mix there as well. On the other hand, his individual events are stacked (the 100 back) and not included in the Olympics (50 fly), so it’s probably relay or bust for Ceccon, at least in 2020.

 

Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Pollwhich asks voters the same question about the girls champions at World Juniors:

Which girls World Junior champ is most likely to win a 2020 Olympic medal?

View Results

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ABOUT A3 PERFORMANCE

A3 Performance is an independently-owned, performance swimwear company built on a passion for swimming, athletes, and athletic performance. We encourage swimmers to swim better and faster at all ages and levels, from beginners to Olympians.  Driven by a genuine leader and devoted staff that are passionate about swimming and service, A3 Performance strives to inspire and enrich the sport of swimming with innovative and impactful products that motivate swimmers to be their very best – an A3 Performer.

The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner

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monsterbasher

But Minakov actually won a medal from a senior worlds competition?

Swammer

But he’s also racing in a much more competitive event. Urlando’s shot is relatively open excluding Milak.

bear drinks beer

100 fly excluding Dressel is also open in my opinion. Even if there’s a favorite, it should be the 17-year-old World silver medalist Minakov himself.

Chaitha D.

Minakov is definetley more likely to win a medal because even if he doesn’t get one from his 100 fly (I absolutely think he will get the silver), he will get one from the relay.

bear drinks beer

Agreed. Minakov’s spot in medley relay is almost secured, and he’ll be most likely to get at least in 4×100 free prelim. Not very sure about whether Urlando can get a spot in 4×200 yet.

Troyy

He’ll be in running for a medal not just in the medley relay but also the 400 free relay.

Dee

Minakov is most likely in my opinion. Papastamos deserves more love; There is a medal up for grabs in the 400 and he ticks all the boxes. Unlikely but I wouldn’t be surprised if 3 or 4 of those boys medal.

As brilliant as she is, Walsh having ¾ of votes on the girls poll is also mindblowing. Chikunova went 2.21 a few months ago!

bear drinks beer

As long as Walsh gets a spot in 4×100, even if prelim only, she’ll get a medal.

The Ready Room

Yeah I voted for Chikunova before remembering that relay medals were a thing…

Awsi Dooger

I wish these polls were individual races only. Otherwise you almost always have to look at an American first

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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