SwimSwam Pulse: 46.2% Think Will Modglin Is Top U.S. 100 Backstroker In 2027, 20% Back Ryan Murphy

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers if Ryan Murphy will reassume his role as the top American in the men’s 100 back over the next 12 months, or if someone else will take the spot:

Question: Who is the favorite to be the top U.S. men’s 100 backstroker come the 2027 World Championships?

RESULTS

• Will Modglin – 46.2%
• Ryan Murphy – 20.0%
• Shaine Casas – 16.5%
• Other – 5.4%
• Jack Aikins – 5.2%
• Daniel Diehl – 4.3%
• Tommy Janton – 1.3%
• Gavin Keogh – 1.1%

Ryan Murphy has been a staple on the lead-off leg of the U.S. men’s 4×100 medley for the last decade.

He’s swam the backstroke leg in the Olympic final for the Americans at three consecutive Games, winning two gold medals and one silver, and he’s also led off the medley relay final at the 2015, 2019, 2022 and 2023 World Championships, and the 2018 Pan Pacific Championships. In 2017, he swam the relay prelims while Matt Grevers assumed final duties, while Murphy was also the #2 American backstroker behind Grevers at the 2014 Pan Pacs, where relays are timed finals.

After taking some time away from the sport following the 2024 Olympics, Murphy announced he was getting back into training earlier this year with the ultimate goal of swimming at the 2028 Games in LA, and this week’s Sacramento Pro Swim Series marks his first competition in 21 months.

Murphy will turn 31 in July, and by the time the LA Olympics roll around, he’ll be 33. That’s not to say he can’t still be among the best in the world in two years. Grevers, for example, won silver in the 100 back at the 2017 World Championships at the age of 32, and then two years later at 34, he was still 5th in the event at the 2019 Worlds. Cameron McEvoy just broke the longstanding 50 free world record a few months before his 32nd birthday.

So if age isn’t standing in his way, is it the deep American men’s backstroke field? Based on last year, no.

In Murphy’s absence, Tommy Janton won the 100 back at the 2025 U.S. Nationals in a time of 53.00, and then at the World Championships, the Americans had no men in the semis of the event. In the men’s medley relay, Janton’s 53.37 lead-off was sixth-fastest in the field, and the U.S. ultimately settled for bronze (the Americans wouldn’t have been in serious contention for gold regardless, barring a world record lead-off leg).

There were two Americans under 53 seconds in 2025, however, as Will Modglin (52.54) and Daniel Diehl (52.94) won silver and bronze at the World University Games behind eventual world champion Pieter Coetze of South Africa.

In our latest poll, we asked SwimSwam readers who will be the top American backstroker in 2027 and swim the lead-off leg of the medley relay at the World Championships in Budapest.

Modglin, who turned 22 last month, led the poll by a wide margin with 46.2% of votes, as he’s been on a sharp improvement curve since heading to the University of Texas in the fall of 2023. Although he set numerous best times during his freshman year, Modglin has taken his game to the next level since Bob Bowman‘s arrival two years ago.

Having joined the Longhorns with a personal best time of 45.01 in the SCY 100 back, Modglin has steadily improved each of his three seasons in Austin, culminating with him breaking the American Record in a time of 43.26 this past November. At the NCAA Championships, despite adding a bit of time and placing 4th in the 100 back (43.80), Modglin had his fastest swim of the meet come leading off Texas’ 400 medley relay (43.49), showing he can step up with a big relay swim when the chips are down.

So far this season, Modglin has only raced the LCM 100 back once, clocking 54.50 at the Longhorn Aquatics Long Course Kick Off in April, which is comparable to where he was in May of last year (54.18).

His swim at last summer’s World University Games earned him a spot on the 2026 Pan Pac roster, putting him in the driver’s seat to have medley relay duties this summer, and thus, perhaps a leg-up on his domestic competition heading into 2027.

Murphy was the clear-cut #2 option in the poll, earning 20% of votes, and he’s had a strong return to the pool this week in Sacramento, placing 2nd in the 100 back in a time of 53.91, with Diehl claiming the victory in 53.74.

Murphy said post-race that he feels his performance is a good place to start from, though he felt rusty in terms of dialing in his race-day routine. He also spoke on the privilege it is to represent the U.S. on the international stage, and though he won’t be able to do so this summer, he hopes he can qualify for the World Championship team next year.

Even if Modglin solidifies himself as the top American next year, Murphy still looks like a solid bet to make the team in the #2 spot.

Shaine Casas finished 3rd in the poll with 16.5% of votes, but his event schedule seems to be more centered around the 100 fly and 200 IM over the last few years, and he’ll only swim the 100 back if it fits in. He did have a strong showing at the Westmont Pro Swim in March, clocking 53.76 in the 100 back.

Diehl, who, like Modglin, qualified for the Pan Pac team in the 100 back by virtue of his swim at the World University Games, is the fastest American so far this season with his 53.74 from Sacramento, which falls shy of cracking the top 25 in the world rankings.

Diehl only picked up 4.3% of votes in the poll, with Jack Aikins, who recently announced he was moving from Virginia to Texas to train alongside Modglin and Casas, earned 5.2% of votes, while the ‘other’ option picked up 5.4%.

If you were one of the voters who selected ‘other’ in the poll, let us know who you’re picking to be the top American 100 backstroker next year in the comments below.

Below, vote in our new A3 Performance Poll, which asks: What interests you the most heading into the 2026 Australian Swimming Trials:

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The A3 Performance Poll is courtesy of A3 Performance, a SwimSwam partner.