From the Files of Robin Pla*
As we get ready for the pool swimming events to begin at FINA World Championships in Budapest, we thought we’d take a look at trends in world rankings over the last six years, as researched by Robin Pla*.
Pla has compiled lists of the top 100 swimmers in the world as at December 31st of each year from 2011 through 2016. He drills down to each pool swimming event, from the 50s of each stroke up to the 1500 free. And what emerges are some interesting trends. Looking at the big picture of men’s rankings, we see that certain countries are in ascendance (e.g., UK, Spain, Hungary, Poland), some are in decline (e.g., Brazil, Japan, China, South Africa), and some hold somewhat steady throughout the years (e.g., USA, Russia).
Number of Men Ranked Among the Top 100 Worldwide in All 17 LCM Events
From there, it’s interesting to see where each country’s relative strength lies. Among the top 100 swimmers in the world for the 17 World Championship events combined, here is the percentage of athletes who finished in the top 20 for the year. Some of the smaller contingents, such as Australia, France, and South Africa, packed big punches:
Percentage of Top-100 Men Ranked Among the Top 20 Worldwide in All 17 LCM Events
| 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | |
| France | 29% | 33% | 27% | 21% | 25% | 32% |
| Italy | 15% | 13% | 15% | 19% | 16% | 19% |
| Germany | 27% | 18% | 19% | 21% | 22% | 20% |
| USA | 23% | 23% | 26% | 22% | 22% | 26% |
| Australia | 23% | 26% | 28% | 31% | 22% | 25% |
| UK | 20% | 19% | 23% | 31% | 28% | 22% |
| Russia | 11% | 13% | 22% | 19% | 18% | 20% |
| Japan | 16% | 13% | 16% | 15% | 22% | 18% |
| China | 18% | 18% | 21% | 42% | 21% | 23% |
| Spain | 21% | 16% | 6% | 10% | 8% | 9% |
| Hungary | 38% | 45% | 22% | 27% | 32% | 18% |
| Sweden | 8% | 0% | 25% | 0% | 17% | 7% |
| Netherlands | 52% | 47% | 8% | 0% | 14% | 31% |
| Canada | 10% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 14% | 13% |
| Poland | 25% | 23% | 23% | 15% | 20% | 21% |
| Brazil | 24% | 29% | 22% | 19% | 21% | 25% |
| Ukraine | 13% | 14% | 33% | 22% | 33% | 26% |
| South Africa | 22% | 21% | 28% | 32% | 28% | 37% |
| Denmark | 33% | 18% | 25% | 8% | 20% | 8% |
| Belgium | 8% | 6% | 0% | 11% | 20% | 9% |
Taking a look at the most recent swim year, notice how Japan dominated in breast and fly. France and Poland are overweighted, if you will, in freestyle prowess. Were it not for Japan, USA would have dominated the IMs by a factor of 2.
Number of Men Ranked Among the Top 100 Worldwide in 2016, per Stroke
| Per Stroke | Free | Back | Breast | Fly | IM |
| France | 30 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 2 |
| Italy | 33 | 22 | 20 | 14 | 8 |
| Germany | 36 | 11 | 14 | 12 | 8 |
| USA | 90 | 46 | 30 | 36 | 36 |
| Australia | 50 | 20 | 13 | 21 | 18 |
| UK | 38 | 15 | 21 | 13 | 15 |
| Russia | 34 | 23 | 26 | 25 | 7 |
| Japan | 38 | 26 | 41 | 39 | 24 |
| China | 19 | 8 | 15 | 7 | 11 |
| Spain | 12 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| Hungary | 16 | 11 | 3 | 12 | 14 |
| Sweden | 4 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| Netherlands | 7 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Canada | 14 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| Poland | 19 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 3 |
| Brazil | 22 | 10 | 16 | 13 | 4 |
| Ukraine | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| South Africa | 8 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 4 |
| Denmark | 6 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Belgium | 15 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 1 |
Not unsurprisingly, European and Asian countries, which race 50s of stroke far more often than the Americans do, lead the rankings in the shorter distances, while USA is the undisputed leader in 200s and above.
Number of Men Ranked Among the Top 100 Worldwide in 2016, per Distance
| Per Distance | 50s | 100s | 200s | >400 |
| France | 16 | 12 | 15 | 13 |
| Italy | 33 | 19 | 24 | 21 |
| Germany | 20 | 17 | 19 | 25 |
| USA | 32 | 63 | 85 | 58 |
| Australia | 27 | 28 | 38 | 29 |
| UK | 18 | 20 | 35 | 29 |
| Russia | 36 | 33 | 31 | 15 |
| Japan | 29 | 36 | 65 | 38 |
| China | 5 | 15 | 25 | 15 |
| Spain | 9 | 4 | 6 | 14 |
| Hungary | 8 | 10 | 22 | 16 |
| Sweden | 2 | 3 | 5 | 4 |
| Netherlands | 5 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| Canada | 7 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| Poland | 16 | 8 | 9 | 14 |
| Brazil | 12 | 27 | 19 | 7 |
| Ukraine | 7 | 6 | 1 | 5 |
| South Africa | 7 | 5 | 10 | 5 |
| Denmark | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
| Belgium | 5 | 7 | 8 | 2 |
*Robin Pla (@RobiinRoad) is National Technical Consultant for the Ministry of Sports, attached to the French Swimming Federation. He is scientific consultant to the French national teams. He is also assistant coach for the National group at INSEP in Paris. Pla holds a Master in Sports, Expertise and Elite Performance and a Master in Sports Management. He is currently working on his doctorate on the distribution of intensity in training.
i did the analysis of height and weight between last game Japan VS USA..you can see what happened..awesome..
Good job Robin!!
Dang we all know about American depth but Japan too.
What is Pays-Bas??
Netherlands