Last Tuesday, we examined the returning points for the women’s meet. We’re back for more today; before we completely put the 2012-2013 NCAA season to bed, let’s take an early look ahead at next year’s NCAA Championship.
Back-to-back?
Starting at the top, Michigan will have a target on their backs, as they look to repeat as NCAA champions. On paper, the Wolverines look like they have a nice cushion, returning at least 50 individual points more than any other team. But they have eleven huge relay spots to fill: 4 from Miguel Ortiz, 4 from Sean Fletcher, and 3 from Zach Turk. The Michigan sprint corps will be significantly thinner without those three horses, and they’ll need a number of guys who are waiting in the wings (look for John Wojciechowski to take over the fly role) and maybe even some distance-oriented guys (Justin Glanda, Michael Wynalda, Anders Nielsen) to step up in the sprint relays. They’ll also be without double-event scorer Ryan Feeley, who scored 14 points individually a few weeks ago.
Who can challenge?
Vegas would probably put the best odds on Cal and USC as the most likely to challenge the Wolverines.
The Bears lose three NCAA scorers (Tom Shields, Ben Hinshaw, Trevor Hoyt), accounting for eight relay swims and 90 individual points. Shields is obviously a huge loss, having shouldered a large portion of the load for Cal over the past four seasons, but the Bears have plenty of options to fill the void. Coach Dave Durden has a young, continuously developing sprint group to manage the freestyle relays, and Marcin Tarczynski has proved he is an elite butterflyer. Oh, and Ryan Murphy arrives on campus in September.
USC is an intriguing team for 2014; they don’t lose a single individual point, and have to replace just one relay swim (Alex Lendrum’s leg on the 800 free). The biggest pitfall for the Trojans the last few seasons has been their lack of depth; despite some great relays, two NCAA titles from Vlad Morozov, and top three individual finishes from Dimitri Colupaev and Cristian Quintero, USC still finished a whopping 200 points behind Michigan. To close that gap, they’ll need more points from their other NCAA-level guys (Luca Spinazzola, Jack Wagner, and Maclin Davis, among others), along with some help from one of the nation’s top recruiting classes. The sprint group will get a big boost with the arrival of Santo Condorelli (19.8, 43.4 in the sprints, and he has already split under 43 multiple times) and Dylan Carter (19.9, 43.8, 1:35.2), while Steven Stumph (54.0, 1:55.9 breaststroker) could make an immediate impact in the breaststrokes.
Don’t sleep on…
Arizona – While they have some holes to fill, the Wildcats should like their odds to equal or better their third place finish next March. They’re losing two point-scoring seniors (Carl Mickelson and Nimrod Shapria Bar-Or) who accounted for 30 individual points and five final relay swims (all were Shapira Bar-Or freestyle legs), but they are all easily replaceable. Kevin Cordes and Kevin Steel already have the breaststrokes covered, and incoming Bradley Tandy (19.0, 42.7 in 2012) already looks capable of scoring 30 individual points next season. The Indian River transfer is now eight months removed from shoulder surgery, and has already shown he’s back and ready for a full NCAA season.
Florida – The good news: The Gators were 3.5 points/one Sebastian Rousseau DQ away from finishing in 3rd a few weeks ago, and will be returning 19 of 20 relay swims next season (the biggest loss is Cameron Martin, a multi-event scorer and relay contributor). The bad news: you can’t contend for a title at NCAA’s without a large presence in the sprint events, and that’s never been a strong point for the Gator men. Who will step up for Florida to complement Brad Deborde? Can they find an effective sprint backstroker?
Stanford – Despite getting disqualified in two relay events, the Cardinal were just seven points out of 4th place. Overall, coaches Ted Knapp and Scott Armstrong need to replace 41 individual points and seven relay swims. The graduation of sprinters Aaron Wayne and Andrew Saeta particularly hurts, but the addition of Connor Black (19.80, 43.74 in the sprint freestyles, 46.71 100 fly, sub-21 fly relay split) will ease the pain. Their roster is better suited to make a run in 2014-15, but Stanford has the pieces to grab some team hardware next year.
Texas – Given the amount of returning talent from the previously mentioned teams, the Longhorns are on the outside looking in at this point. Then again, we’re still 11 months away from next year’s NCAA meet and Eddie Reese is at the helm, so anything is possible. Texas has to deal with the loss of Dax Hill, Michael McBroom, and Austin Surhoff. Those three were regular NCAA finalists, scoring almost 100 individual points and accounting for seven finals relay swims this season. Next year, the Longhorns are returning just two swimmers who scored individually (Kip Darmody and Clay Youngquist), and will be relying heavily on sprinters John Murray and Caleb Weir, as well as incoming freshman Jack Conger to carry the load. There are a couple of wildcards, too: all indications point to breaststroker Imri Ganiel being able to compete this season, and there are rumors that Nick D’Innocenzo might return to the squad next season. If everyone is ready and accounted for next March, Texas could make another push for a top four finish.
I think Cal will pull it out next year, it will be a tight meet and everyone will need to be hitting thier marks but I think they can do it. No DQs or they are done. That kind of goes for all of the top teams though, a DQ could really turn the tables pretty significatly for all of them. If it is a relay they are done, there is no coming back from that. Murphy and Franklin will be stars and the depth that is needed to fill some holes. They are both strong as team swimmers as they are individual swimmers. It will be interesting to see how they deal with the transition from thier current long… Read more »
usc also gets reed malone and michael domagala
Cal not only gets Ryan Murphy, but Messerschmidt should be returning as well, so that will definitely help them rack up the points as well.
My money is on CAL next year. Both men and women
It definitely seems like there’s not one team that sticks out for next year. Time will tell.
I think next years NCAAs aren’t going to be as big of a blowout by one team as they were this year. All indications point towards a tighter championship, which makes it all the more exciting.
It would be interesting to note how many of the returning points actually score the following year (e.g. Michigan has 200 points returning… how many of those 200 points acutally score the next year… this could determine the percentage of returning points that actually score the following year. I could be more or less.)