In our addition to our new power rankings format, we’re trying out something else new this year: NCAA pre-season predictions.
Like any other sports fans, swimming fans enjoy making their predictions about upcoming events, or even whole seasons. Followers of sports like baseball or football will be familiar with writers from major sports publications making their preseason predictions about Most Valuable Players, World Series or Super Bowl champions, and the like.
Well, we’re not quite still in the college swimming preseason as some teams have started competition, but even some of the major Division I squads haven’t yet had their first official meet, so we figured it’s still early enough to call these “preseason” picks.
We polled our staff, did our research, and came up with our six-months-out best guesses as to who would be standing atop the awards podium for each event at the 2018 NCAA Division I championships, and without any further ado, here’s our choices by writer:
| Braden | Lauren | Jared | James | Hannah | Morgan | Karl | Robert | Top Pick | |
| 800 Free Relay | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford |
| 200 Free Relay | Louisville | Stanford | NC State | Cal | Cal | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford |
| 500 Free | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledekcy (Stanford) | Ledecky |
| 200 IM | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Tie: Baker/Eastin |
| 50 Free | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Manuel |
| 400 Medley Relay | Stanford | Stanford | Cal | Cal | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford |
| 400 IM | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Sydney Pickrem (Texas A&M) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Eastin |
| 100 Fly | Louise Hansson (USC) | Louise Hansson (USC) | Janet Hu (Stanford) | Louise Hansson (USC) | Louise Hansson (USC | Louise Hansson (USC) | Louise Hansson (USC) | Louise Hansson (USC) | Hansson |
| 200 Free | Mallroy Comerford (Louisville) | Mallory Comerford (Louisville) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Mallory Comerford (Louisville) | Mallory Comerford (Louisville) | Mallory Comerford (Louisville) | Mallory Comerford (Louisville) | Mallory Comerford (Louisville) | Comerford |
| 100 Breast | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | King |
| 100 Back | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Ally Howe (Stanford) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Ally Howe (Stanford) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Baker |
| 200 Medley Relay | Stanford | Cal | Cal | Stanford | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal | Cal |
| 1650 Free | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Katie Ledecky (Stanford) | Ledecky |
| 200 Back | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Kathleen Baker (Cal) | Baker |
| 100 Free | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Simone Manuel (Stanford) | Manuel |
| 200 Breast | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | Lilly King (Indiana) | King |
| 200 Fly | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Ella Eastin (Stanford) | Eastin |
| 400 Free Relay | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford | Stanford |
Compared to our men’s picks, there was a lot more agreement among our staff, with the voting being unanimous in ten of 17 events . If our collective crystal ball is correct, here will be some of the highlights of the 2018 Women’s NCAAs:
- Kathleen Baker of California and Ella Eastin of Stanford would each win three events, including a tie in the 200 IM.
- After tying last year, Louisville’s Mallory Comerford will win the 200 free outright, while Katie Ledecky will have to “settle” for victories only in the 500 free and 1650 free.
- Continuing the Cardinal’s winning ways, Simone Manuel will sweep the sprint freestyle events.
- Unsurprisingly, Indiana’s Lilly King will win both breaststroke events once again.
- USC’s Louise Hansson will pick up a victory in the 100 fly.
- Oh yeah, nearly forgot. Someone named Katie Ledecky will win the 500 and 1650 freestyles. Also note that at least one of writers thinks she’s going to go after the 400 IM instead of the 200 free.
- Stanford will take four of the five relays, only missing out on the 200 medley relay victory, which will go to Cal.
Now, again, the above descriptions are only going best guesses as the season gets going. Surely some swimmers will emerge, others may take some steps back, and other picks in March are going to look a lot different than they do now. In the meantime, leave a comment and let us know what you think is going to happen.
Cal da best everyone wanna come here?? dose ???? just jealous dat cal is so ???
#fakenews #fakecoach #kalnotcal
#StanfordDomination #1foreva #fearthetree
What an incredible class of swimmers (HS class of 2015) Ledecky, Baker, King, Eastin, Comerford, Weitzel. Even though some of them deferred entollment, that was quite a class.
The class also includes Katie McLaughlin, Amy Bilquist, Sydney Pickrem and Miranda Tucker. It’s very unlikely that there will be another class that strong for a while.
Yep that class was incredible. Crazy that Baker was *only* ranked 3rd in the class.
My picks: (not that any of you care LOL)
800Fr-Relay: Stanford
200Fr-Relay: Cal
500Fr: Ledecky
200IM: Eastin
50Fr: Weitzel
400Medley: Stanford
400IM: Eastin:
100Fly: Louise Hansson
200Fr: Manuel (if she swims it), Comerford if she doesn’t.
100Br: King
100Bk: Howe
200Medley: Cal
1650: Ledecky
200Bk: Baker
100Fr: Weitzel
200Br: King
200Fl: Eastin/McLaughlin
400Fr-Relay: Stanford
Only major difference in my picks is I’m predicting (and hoping!) that Weitzel comes back after a disappointing year. Also, I think Manuel could beat KL and Comerford in the 2fr since she definitely has the opening speed, and she has great walls – she just needs to get that back half together. Also hoping McLaughlin comes back strong and can challenge Eastin in that 2fly.
Wait actually I think I’d pick Thomas for the 100fly. USC doesn’t seem to always taper the best for NCAAs seeing as they always seem to taper more for PAC12s. Granted, Hansson had a great NCAA meet last year, but I think I’d still pick Thomas.
Suprised you said Weitzeil instead of Manuel.
There is no way that Simone Manual the Olympic and World Champion is gonna lose the 50 and 100 free in SCY.
I think manual is the favorite to win both, but I wouldn’t be shocked if Weitzell upset her in the 50 free. However I don’t see how Manual loses the 100 free.
Abbey Weitzel has to first reclaim her 2015 form. That might be difficult considering it was not Teri that she was training with when she recorded her fastest times. ?
I admit, based on how Manuel is looking, it’s hard to imagine she’d lose, but Weitzel is still the AR holder in the 50 free short course, and was the former AR in the 100 free short course. I definitely believe that it’s Manuel’s race to lose, but I think if Weitzel can regain her 2015/2016 form she may be able to challenge Manuel. 50fr is definitely more likely than the 100, but hey, have to have bold predictions right!
don’t count out newcomer Sarah Darcel in dat 4 hunnid IM tho
After seeing this I change my mind. Cal>Stanford
#fakenews #fakecoach #kalnotcal
#1Stanford>everybodys #fearthetree
Only 4 teams with 2 or more wins predicted – I think? Wow. That’s some serious motivation for other teams.
Not very creative picks – almost everybody picked last year’s winners.
7/8 votes for Louise Hansson is curious. Her best from last season is virtually identical to Janet Hu and Noemie Thomas. Plus there’s a not-nil chance that Comerford will do 100 fly instead of going up against Manuel and Ledecky.
I’d also expect at least one vote for McLaughlin and Seidt.
I believe Hansson is more consistent than wither Hu or Thomas. She mananged to win Pac-12’s last year in an extremely competetive field which included the soon to be NCAA champion and followed that up with a respectable third place finish at NCAA’s with a similar time. Both of the swimmers who placed ahead of her have graduated. Furthermore, I believe she is the only swimmer to have consistently split 49 in relays.
I agree that McLaughlin and Seidt both have chances to upset Eastin and Baker in their respective events, but with Eastin and Baker looking really strong right now it’s hard to vote against them. It’s similar to Caeleb Dressel/Joseph Schooling in the 100 fly. Schooling certainly has a chance to win if he puts together a great swim but Dressel looks so strong most people wouldn’t bet against him. I think that the votes for Louise Hansson have a lot to do with her relay splits. She was the only person to split under 50. last year and she did it more than once.
Ella Eastin has extra good truns and underwaters. That’s why she is comparatively better in the SC pool.
Maybe Sydney Pickrem will give her a battle in the IMs. She showed some true resilience with her 400 IM at the WCs.