Despite an exciting first 2 days at the 2010 Charlotte UltraSwim Grand Prix, Day 3 might be the best day yet. It will feature the always-exciting 50 freestyle, and the men’s 100 backstroke, which is undeniably the race of the meet. So far, we have seen Ryan Lochte swimming well in his comeback, as well as Dagny Knutson in her first meet post-withdraw from college. Despite plenty of highly-ranked young swimmers, the veterans have thus far come through strong in the final results.
Women’s Meet
200 Fly
Winner-Felicia Lee (NBAC)
Runner-Up-Dagny Knutson (ASK)
Darkhorse-Barbara Jardin (Canadian Nat’l Swim Center)
I also Like-Kelly Nelson (Nittany Lion Swim Club), Teresa Crippen (Germantown/UFlorida)
Comments-Felicia Lee looked fast in the 100 fly, and I like her to look even better in the 200 version. Dagny has performed well in this event in the past few Grand Prix events, finishing behind only Jasmine Trotsky in Columbus in her season’s best time. Jardin is a former Junior World’s medalist, and is primed for a breakout at the senior level.
50 freestyle
Winner-Vaness Garcia (Puerto Rico)
Runner-Up-Erika Erndl (Swim Florida)
Darkhorse-Taylor Schick (Dynamo)
I also Like-Rebecca Jones (Auburn), Missy Franklin (Colorado Swim Stars)
Comments-Erndl and Garcia came up huge when I picked them to go 1-2 in Columbus, Garcia in a season-best time of 25.64. I like them to go top 2 again, but this time flip it around with Garcia taking the win. I like the 15-year old enthusiasm and energy to carry 14th seeded Schick to a great finish.
100 Backstroke
Winner-Natalie Coughlin (California)
Runner-Up-Rachel Bootsma (Aquajets)
Darkhorse-Lauren Smart (SwimMAC)
I also Like-Gemma Spofforth (UFlorida)
Comments-Bootsma is the top overall seed, and at just 16 years old is the only Junior swimmer to ever break a minute in the 100 back when she did it in August of 2009. Do you remember who the first woman, period, was to break the minute barrier? That was Coughlin, who did it just shy of her 20th birthday in 2002. Coughlin is still an elite backstroker, and I think can win this event, but it won’t be long before Bootsma takes over her crown as the best backstroker in the country, if not world. I like Spofforth, who is working her way towards the Commonwealth Games, to finish third, with a strong showing from Lauren Smart as well.
200Breaststroke
Winner- Rebecca Soni (Trojan Swim Club)
Runner-Up-Justine Mueller (SwimMAC)
Darkhorse-Michaela Sceli (GO Kingfish)
I also Like-Corrie Clark (Nittany Lions), Jillian Tyler (Minnesota)
Comments-This is just about the only sure-fire race at this meet, with Soni in a class of her own, but beyond her the race is wide open. Mueller seems to be in top form after the 100, and should do well again here. Sceli, who was just an average collegian at Marshall, has really bloomed into her twenties. Tyler didn’t do well in the 100, but I expect her to rebound here. Clarke won the event in Columbus in a season’s-best time.
400 Freestyle
Winner-Chloe Sutton (Mission Viejo)
Runner-Up-Dagny Knutson (ASK)
Darkhorse-Emily Brunemann (Club Wolverine)
I also Like-Sarah Henry (Raleigh Swimming)
Comments-Another Sutton-Knutson showdown (they never get old). halfway between their specialties (Sutton in the 800, Knutson in the 200), I like Sutton in the slightly longer distance. Brunemann did well in the 800, and should be able to move up from her 9th seed here. Schmitt, as the top seed by 5 seconds, is the tempting pick here, but she and her Georgia teammates didn’t swim well on the first 2 days of competition.
Men’s Meet
200 Fly
Winner-Wu Peng (Club Wolverine)
Runner-Up-Mark Dylla (Athens Bulldogs)
Darkhorse-Frederico Bussolin (Rari Nantes-Italy)
I also Like-Matt Patton (Club Wolverine)
Comments-Wu Peng, the 4th place finisher in Beijing, has been swimming well this Grand Prix season, and should get an easy win with Phelps sitting the event out. This is Dylla’s best event, and should finish second. He will be pushed by a group of Peng’s CW teammates in Patton and Alex Vanderkaay. Bussolin showed a lot of promise as a junior swimmer in Italy, and has slowly been moving up the international ranks.
50 Freestyle
Winner-Cullen Jones (SwimMAC)
Runner-Up-Garrett Weber-Gale (Longhorn Aquatics)
Darkhorse-Jared White (Auburn)
I also Like-Josh Schneider (SwimMAC)
Comments-Michael Phelps is testing out of the 50 as part of a new lineup he’s working on for 2012, but I don’t think there’s any way that Cullen Jones, the American Record Holder, doesn’t win this one at his home pool. Weber-Gale will be right behind him. Jared White should start seeing the dividends from working with sprint genius Brett Hawke at Auburn, and Schneider, the NCAA Champion, should also be in the mix. If Phelps wants an opportunity to show that he can compete with the top sprinters, this field gives him a great opportunity to do so.
100 Breaststroke
Winner-Ryan Lochte (Daytona Beach)
Runner-Up-Matt Grevers (Tucson Ford)
Darkhorse-Patrick Murphy (NBAC)
I also Like-The Field
Comments-This event is the big-daddy of the meet. If you’re only going to watch one race, make it this one. The event will include almost all of the meet’s studs: Phelps, Grevers, Lochte (the Short Course Yards record holder), Piersol (the long course world record holder), Thoman (the short course world record holder), Eugene Godsoe (the 2010 NCAA Champ), Patrick Murphy (the 15-16 NAG record holder), and a bonus swim from Mark Dylla, the butterfly specialist. Picking a winner is next to impossible, but Lochte has been swimming better than expected off of a knee injury, and Grevers is just huge. But how can you pick against Piersol, or Phelps, or any of those other guys? You can’t. Just an incredible race.
200 Breaststroke
Winner-Eric Shanteau (Longhorn Aquatics)
Runner-Up-Aaron Opell (Indiana)
Darkhorse-Robert Holderness (Seminole Aquatics)
I also Like-Christian Higgins (Wilton YMCA)
Comments-With Spann scratching the meet, I don’t think there’s anyone who can challenge Shanteau in the 200 breast, but Aaron Opell might be close. Holderness, who swims for Florida State, has come on strong the past year and a half, and performed well in the 200.
400 Freestyle
Winner-Peter Vanderkaay (Club Wolverine)
Runner-Up-Ryan Lochte (Daytona Beach)
Darkhorse-Josef Kinderwater (West Shore YMCA)
I also Like-Hassan Abdel-Khalik (Etobicoke-Ontario)
Comments-Vanderkaay is looking very strong at this meet so far. It wouldn’t surprise me if Lochte scratches this event, but assuming he swims he will be in the top two. If he does drop out, I like Abdel-Khalik, who is a former Canadian Youth Swimmer of the year and will be a junior at Michigan in the fall, to jump up. Kinderwater has been representing YMCA swimming well at this meet, including a runner-up finish in the 1500.
