Update: A previous version of this article listed the 2008 Olympic Team based on the psych sheet, not the final results. This has been corrected.
(This post was inspired by this comment from The Grand Inquisitor. Thanks.)
The number of swimmers who qualify for Olympic Trials has been increasing. In 2012, 1831 athletes participated up from 1237 in 2008 and 689 in 2004. USA Swimming’s website says that 1660 athletes have qualified for the 2016 meet as of April 18th. The majority of swimmers at the U.S. Olympic Trials have no realistic shot at making the Olympics (more on that here). Anyone outside the top 24 is an extreme long shot and the 689 swimmers in 2004 was enough for there to be around 40 athletes in each event.
The larger meet means that many young swimmers are able to gain real Olympic Trials experience, and this is often billed as a selling point (besides the obvious draw to fill seats in a basketball arena). While the extent of those benefits is open to debate (the pressure a 100th seed is under is, for most people, less that on a top 4 seed), undeniably many more US swimmers have trials experience by the time they’re really ready to contend for a spot than used to.
The 2008 Olympic Team had 11 swimmers that didn’t swim at the 2004 Trials (or 10 if you don’t think Dara Torres should count, because she already had Olympic experience but was sort of retired for a while). The 2012 team only had 5 swimmers that didn’t participate in the 2008 trials. 15 swimmers on the 2012 team previously swam in a Trials where their best finish was outside the top 24. Here’s a look at the 2012 team member’s top finish at previous Olympic Trials. Jason Lezak’s 30th place in the 50 free in 1996 is missing from the table because I didn’t want an extra column for one swim.
(Number in table is highest finish from that year’s Trials).
| 2008 | 2004 | 2000 | |
| Allison Schmitt | 2 | ||
| Alyssa Anderson | 8 | ||
| Amanda Weir | 8 | 3 | 31 |
| Andrew Gemmell | 10 | ||
| Anthony Ervin | 2 | ||
| Ariana Kukors | 3 | 10 | |
| Breeja Larson | |||
| Brendan Hansen | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| Caitlin Leverenz | 3 | ||
| Cammile Adams | 19 | ||
| Charlie Houchin | 44 | ||
| Chloe Sutton | 3 | ||
| Claire Donahue | 32 | ||
| Clark Burckle | 5 | ||
| Connor Jaeger | |||
| Conor Dwyer | 52 | ||
| Cullen Jones | 3 | 30 | |
| Dana Vollmer | 5 | 1 | 43 |
| Elizabeth Beisel | 2 | ||
| Eric Shanteau | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| Jason Lezak | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| Jessica Hardy | 1 | 5 | |
| Jimmy Feigen | 28 | ||
| Kara Lynn Joyce | 4 | 1 | 75 |
| Kate Ziegler | 2 | 4 | |
| Kathleen Hersey | 2 | ||
| Katie Ledecky | |||
| Lauren Perdue | 59 | ||
| Lia Neal | 28 | ||
| Matt Grevers | 2 | 7 | 61 |
| Matt McLean | 9 | ||
| Micah Lawrence | 14 | ||
| Michael Phelps | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Missy Franklin | 37 | ||
| Natalie Coughlin | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Nathan Adrian | 4 | ||
| Nick Thoman | 5 | ||
| Peter Vanderkaay | 1 | 3 | |
| Rachel Bootsma | 35 | ||
| Rebecca Soni | 1 | 11 | |
| Ricky Berens | 3 | ||
| Ryan Lochte | 2 | 2 | |
| Scott Weltz | 30 | ||
| Shannon Vreeland | |||
| Tyler Clary | 3 | ||
| Tyler McGill | 4 |
Only 5 2008 team members had a previous trials where they finished outside the top 24. Here’s the top trials finish at previous Trials for members of the 2008 Olympic team. Missing are Dara Torres’ finishes from 1984, 1988, and 1992 (she made the team each of those years).
| 2004 | 2000 | 1996 | |
| Aaron Peirsol | 1 | 2 | |
| Allison Schmitt | |||
| Amanda Beard | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| Ben Wildman-Tobriner | |||
| Brendan Hansen | 1 | 3 | |
| Caroline Burckle | 12 | ||
| Christine Magnuson | |||
| Christine Marshall | |||
| Cullen Jones | 30 | ||
| Dara Torres | 2 | ||
| Dave Walters | |||
| Elaine Breeden | 9 | ||
| Elizabeth Beisel | |||
| Emily Silver | 15 | ||
| Eric Shanteau | 3 | 11 | |
| Erik Vendt | 2 | 1 | |
| Garrett Weber-Gale | 7 | ||
| Gil Stovall | 9 | ||
| Ian Crocker | 1 | 1 | |
| Jason Lezak | 1 | 4 | 30 |
| Jessica Hardy | 5 | ||
| Julia Smit | 7 | ||
| Kate Ziegler | 4 | ||
| Kathleen Hersey | |||
| Katie Hoff | 1 | ||
| Kim Vandenberg | 18 | ||
| Klete Keller | 1 | 1 | |
| Lacey Nymeyer | 10 | ||
| Larsen Jensen | 1 | ||
| Margaret Hoelzer | 1 | 32 | |
| Mark Gangloff | 2 | 14 | |
| Matt Grevers | 7 | 61 | |
| Megan Jendrick | 3 | 1 | |
| Michael Phelps | 1 | 2 | |
| Natalie Coughlin | 1 | 4 | |
| Nathan Adrian | |||
| Peter Vanderkaay | 3 | ||
| Rebecca Soni | 11 | ||
| Ricky Berens | |||
| Ryan Lochte | 2 | ||
| Scott Spann | 26 |
Based on the recent trend, there’s a good chance that the number of Olympians with non-contender Trials experience will be higher than ever this year.
The Trials qualifying times are slower so that many more swimmers, parents, chaperons, etc. will provide commercial support to local businesses . That’s why a city hosts the Trials these days. It was a much more elite affair in previous eras. Esoteric statistics complimenting this new status quo without looking at the money aren’t being honest.
It’s about putting meat in the seats and selling shwag. Trials aren’t a competition so much as a swim-themed vacation for most. Buy tickets for family, a plane, hotel, merch, etc… do a prelim race or two, then watch the Olympians and go on a 311 bus tour of Omaha.
A lot of swimmers should consider cheaper regional meets where they can swim prelims/finals of multiple events, but I get the appeal.
The cuts are easy so many swimmer can attend and help pay the pool in Omaha.
Obviously [or at least it should be] the standards are set as a compromise between times from which a swimmer might actually drop and make the team, and enough competitors [along with followers] to make the Trials financially possible without US Swimming seeming too greedy. Those are the only reasonable criteria. Track & Field does it with fewer competitors, even with three Olympic entries permitted in each event.
Personally I don’t really buy the idea of experience being helpful for the 100th seed.
Yes, it’s true that many Olympians swam Olympic trials and missed the Olympic team. This doesn’t really show anything except that most Olympians happened to be really fast a few years before they became *Olympic* fast.
Furthermore, I just don’t think the “experience” is that helpful. Let’s be real: the 100th seed knows that their chances of making even the semifinals are ridiculously small — perhaps even past their physical limitations at the time. The “pressure” experienced as the 100th seed is nothing compared to the pressure felt by the 2nd or 3rd seeds. Totally different things.
Moreover, as the 100th seed,… Read more »
If one of the goals is to give younger swimmers a chance to swim just for the experience with the hope they will perform better four years later then it would make sense to have different cuts for different ages.
What would your idea be of standard’s ceiling be in regards to age? For example, ages 14-24 for youth standard, and ages 25+ for a senior standard? What would fair and realistic qualifying times be for each group?
Aren’t the time standards pretty much equal to the National Championship standards? While I agree making nationals is a great accomplishment, making Olympic Trials should be an even greater accomplishment! Fewer qualifiers means less $$$, plain and simple.
The number of athletes qualifying for trials may be increasing but at least in my area qualifying for trials is a huge accomplishment and the times are not easy to swim
I agree 100%
It’s only a huge accomplishment to people that don’t have a clue about world-class swimming. To prove this point, listen to the first words out of the mouth of any athlete that barely qualifies. They always feel obliged to explain that they have no chance of actually making the Olympic Team. They are attending for the participation trophy and nothing more. Prior to 2000, the last place finisher at trials was roughly 2 seconds per 100M from making the final. Every one of those athletes on the deck had a chance with their perfect swim and were focused on making the final for their shot at the Olympic Team. In 2012 we had roughly 75 swimmers per event slower than… Read more »
I don’t think it’s an easy decision about what size to keep Trials. On the one hand, this argument that young swimmers need Trials experience once before they make the team is probably spurious – if you’re good enough to make the Olympic team, odds are you were good enough to make Trials four years before (also see Phelps, Ervin, Ledecky, and probably others I’m missing who made the team at their first Trials). There also is probably a little merit to having a smaller meet to make warmups less chaotic, but I’ve never swam at OT so I don’t know if this is a big deal or not, plus I don’t think Trials is significantly larger than other high-level… Read more »