2024 Olympics Previews: Can Qin’s Fukuoka Triple End the Chances of a 100 Breast 3-“Peaty”?

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

• Pool Swimming: July 27 – August 4, 2024
  • Open Water Swimming: August 8 – 9, 2024
• La Défense Arena — Paris, France
• LCM (50 meters)
• Meet Central
• Full Schedule
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 MEN’S 100 Breaststroke— BY THE NUMBERS:

• World Record: 56.88 – Adam Peaty, Great Britain (2019)
• World Junior Record:  59.01 – Nicolo Martinenghi, Italy (2017)
• Olympic Record: 57.13 – Adam Peaty, Great Britain (2016)
• 2021 Olympic Champion: 57.37 – Adam Peaty, Great Britain

While the women’s 100 backstroke pits two of the fastest ever in the event at the heights of their careers, the men’s 100 breaststroke will be a little different. The event will see a titanic clash between a young gun looking to back up his recent success and an experienced veteran looking to reassert his dominance on the field.

Like any great story, the moment of truth comes in the third act as the Champion, world record holder, and greatest sprint breaststroke ever, Adam Peaty, attempts to join an elite club of swimmers who have won three gold medals in the same individual event at successive Olympics. Michael Phelps has done it twice (he actually has won the 2oo IM at four straight Games), as has Australian Dawn Fraser, Hungarian Krisztina Egerszegi, and Katie Ledecky, who could tie Phelps with four straight should she win the 800 free.

Standing in the Englishman’s way of the triple win is China’s Qin Haiyang. Qin burst through in Peaty’s absence at the 2023 World Championships, sweeping the 50/100/200 breaststroke in Fukuoka, the latter of which in World Record time. While Qin has been around the swimming scene a lot longer than many people may think, his recent emergence may either dethrone Peaty and usher in a new age of breaststroke dominance or provide the necessary foe for Peaty to rise back to the top.

Surrounding our leading swimmers is a strong and experienced cast of swimmers who will be eager for the limelight and a chance at a medal. While on paper, it appears like only the bronze will be up for grabs, the strength and depth in the event will be waiting to pounce on any weakness or slip-up from our protagonist and antagonist (I’ll let you decide who is who).

The Return of the King

Adam Peaty (photo: Jack Spitser)

It’s been a roller coaster ride of epic proportions over the past three years, but Adam Peaty has weathered the ups and downs and found himself back in the mix at the Olympics. After his open and public struggles with mental health, a broken foot, and a split from the mother of his son, Peaty returned to competition (in earnest) to prepare for the Olympics at the World Cup meets this past fall. None of his times there were extraordinary put to have three successive weeks of racing strung together seemed to have been good for the Brit.

In the new year, Peaty turned those performances into a bronze medal at the 2024 World Championships in Doha. After posting the fastest time in the semifinals (58.60), Peaty was a tad slower in the finals, hitting the wall in 59.10. While Peaty has been much faster in his career, the swim was a sign of a return to form as it represented his first long-course international medal in the event since the Olympic Games in 2021. Peaty’s broken foot excluded him from the 2022 Worlds, he failed to medal at the 2022 Commonwealth Games, and he withdrew from the British Trials for 2023.

Peaty parlayed that bronze medal into two strong performances at the April Aquatics GB Swimming Championships. In prelims, he swam 58.53, faster than what it took to win gold in Doha, his fastest result since the Olympics and the #2 time in the world this season.

However, Peaty, forever not content with the status quo, unleashed a 57.94 in the finals to firmly throw his name into contention for the gold medal. With that time, Peaty notched his 21st result under the 58-second barrier, a threshold that only two other swimmers have hit (more on them later).

While the time doesn’t crack the list of top ten performances or even top 20 (let alone his own top 20), the time holds massive significance, and if Peaty can stay focused, he can certainly have a chance of winning the 100 breast and joining the illustrious club of three-PEATing an individual event at the Olympics.

Red Dragon

Before we jump into looking at Peaty’s biggest roadblock to another Olympic gold medal, let’s just see what Qin is up against historically,

All-Time Top 10 Performances: Men’s 100 Breaststroke 

1. Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 56.88 (2019)
2. Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 57.10 (2018)
3. Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 57.13 (2016)
4. Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 57.14 (2019)
5. Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 57.37 (2021)
6. Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 57.39 (2021)
7. Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 57.47 (2017)
8. Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 57.55 (2016)
9. Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 57.56 (2021)
10. Adam Peaty, Great Britain – 57.62 (2016)

For the sake of brevity, we only included the top ten, but Peaty’s name would run uninterrupted until the 15th line, where Qin would show up with his 57.69.

That said, however, Qin is the frontrunner and favorite for the gold. In comparison to Peaty, from a historical perspective, Qin has none. Honestly, in looking at past results of this event, Qin’s name rarely appears. Yan Zibei was China’s only entrant (in this event) at the 2021 Olympics and the same at the 2022 Worlds. Qin did compete at both meets, but only in the 200 breast and IM, with his best showing being 18th in the 200 IM in 2022.

However, Qin, who was a great junior swimmer and at one time owned the (non-ratified) World Junior Records in both events, has had a renaissance of late. May last year saw him break the 58-second barrier for the first time, becoming the third man to do so, and at the 2023 Worlds, Qin set successive PBs in the semis and finals of the event, ultimately winning the gold in 57.69. At the end of the meet, Qin had swept all three of the breaststroke events, a first, and walked away with the world record in the 200.

Qin proved, however, that Fukuoka wasn’t a one-off as he dominated the World Aquatics World Cup this past fall. In a field including Peaty, Qin swept all three disciplines again at all three stops, highlighted by a 57.69 in Berlin, which equaled his winning time from the Worlds and made him the fastest swimmer this season.

Not only will the 100 breast be a clash of the Peaty’s past dominance and Qin’s recent success but also a battle of two different approaches as the splits comparison details below

Splits Comparison:

Peaty, the world record holder in the 50 as well, naturally takes the race out fast, splitting 26.80 this past April and a blistering 26.63 in his world record swim. On the other hand, Qin, the world record holder in the 200, is out slower but surges on the last 50, coming home in as fast as 30.60 (Berlin swim). Even with Peaty being more than a second off his personal best, it would come as no surprise to see him leading at the 50 but to be passed by Qin in the back half.

In May, at the Chinese National Championships, Qin posted a time of 58.24, taking it out in 26.98; he had no real pressure to attack the back half as he won by nearly half a second and likely was not fully rested for the meet.

While he enters Paris as the favorite in this event, Qin will be under more scrutiny than other swimmers of his caliber. In April of this year, the Hearld Sun reported that Qin was among 23 Chinese swimmers who tested positive for trimetazidine (TMZ) in 2021. TMZ, which has been banned since 2014, is used to treat heart conditions but is also noted to help regulate metabolism and oxygen use. Chinese anti-doping authorities (CHINADA) found the results of the tests were Adverse Analytical Findings (AAF) but acquitted all the swimmers without any penalties after finding that the samples were flagged as positive as a result of contamination.

The scandal is still an ongoing affair. Last week, the United States opened a federal investigation into the issue, and this week, the independent prosecutor investigating the case supported WADA’s decision to uphold CHINADA’s decision.

The American, the Dutchman, and the Italian

(In fairness to these three athletes, I went in alphabetical order of their nationality to fit the subheading)

It took some wrangling, but grouping these three swimmers under one heading seemed to make the most sense. With Peaty absent and before the emergence of Qin, the USA’s Nic Fink, the Netherlands’ Arno Kamminga, and Italy’s Nicolo Martinenghi were the trio to beat in the 100 breast.

World Aquatics Championships
Fukuoka (JPN)
14-30 JULY 2023

Entering 2022, Kamminga had the pedigree and results from the Tokyo Olympics, having become the 2nd man under 58 (57.80 in prelims) and winning the silver medal in the finals (58.00). However, Martinenghi, who won bronze in 2021 (58.33) claimed the Worlds crown in Peaty’s absence at the 2022 Budapest Worlds, swimming a new personal best time of 58.26 and becoming the 4th fastest performer ever. Fink, an older newcomer to the event, would finish 3rd in 58.65 but later in the year at the Short Course Worlds, would get the better of Martinenghi, Peaty, and Qin as he won both the 50 and 100.

Building upon that success, Fink swam a PB of 58.36 at the US Nationals to become the 7th fastest performer ever and challenge for a medal in Fukuoka. The trio, all strong contenders behind Qin, battled in the prelims and semis, and all made the finals. Swimming out of lanes 1, 2, and 3, the trio all tied, hitting the wall in 58.72, earning the silver medal, albeit more than a second behind Qin’s 57.69.

Fink has the slowest PB of the three but has the fastest time of the three this season. At the 2024 Doha Worlds, the men’s 100 breast was one of the more talent-filled events, and Fink swam his way to gold, completing his trifecta of Worlds medals. He finished in 58.57, beating out Martinenghi (2nd—58.84), Kamminga (5th—59.21), and Peaty (3rd—59.10) and sits behind only Qin and Peaty in this season’s rankings.

Kamminga isn’t too far behind Fink, as he ranks 4th with a 58.68 from the Budapest stop of the World Cup, and Martinenghi clocks in as 8th in the world from his Doha performance. From the rankings, it may appear as if Fink should be the favorite for bronze, but recent results lean in another direction.

Fink was slower at the US Olympic Trials, swimming 59.24 in prelims (1st), 59.46 in semis (3rd), and 59.08 (1st) in the finals. While some could say that Fink did only what he needed to do to qualify, the winning time is a little worrying as both Kamminga and Martinenghi have dipped below 59 recently.

It’s not a fair comparison as the USA, Netherlands, and Italy have differing paths to qualifying for Paris and thus different training schedules, but Martinenghi, who made the Italian squad from his Doha performance, won the 100 breast at the Sette Colle meet in 58.90, beating out Peaty and Kamminga. Kamminga, too, has dipped under 59. He posted a 58.96 in the prelims of the AP Race International, beating out the meet’s namesake, Adam Peaty, in the finals.

The trio has the skill and pedigree to compete for the medals, and more likely than not, we will see one of them win one. However, who will win will come down to which of them shows up in the final. Who knows, perhaps the trio will tie again?

The Olympic Crusade

Looking to burst through and make the Olympic final for the first time are a strong contingent of world-spanning athletes. Leading the charge are the 5th-7th ranked swimmers in the world this season: Evgenii Somov, Sun Jiajun, and Sam Williamson.

Somov is an interesting case for two reasons. The obvious is that despite being Russian, Somov has been granted neutral status for the Olympic Games and will be allowed to compete in Paris. The second is that even if he had been granted neutral status before May 15th, Somov would not have been under the Olympic Qualifying time of 59.49 this qualifying period. In fact, he had never broken the 1:00 barrier until the Atlanta Classic meet. In the 1996 Atlanta Olympics pool, Somov blasted to a new Russian record of 58.72, breaking Anthon Chupkov’s four-year-old mark of 58.83 and utterly destroying his own PB of 1:00.11.

While not dropping over a second from his personal best, Sun also posted a new personal best this past May. The Chinese swimmer, who made the semifinals of the 100 fly at the Tokyo Games, has found recent success in the breaststroke. He finished 3rd in the 50 breast in Fukuoka and finished 2nd behind Qin at the Chinese National Swimming Championships in 58.73, lopping off .26 from his previous best. Sun, like Qin, will have to deal with the increased media pressure of the Chinese positive tests as he was reported as one of the 23.

WILLIAMSON-Sam
World Aquatics Championships – Doha 2024
credit Fabio Cetti

Long a hole in the Australian medley relay, Williamson may have vaulted his way into relay medal territory and a potential individual final. After a 4th place at the Doha Worlds (59.21) and a surprise gold medal in the 50 breast (26.32), Williamson launched himself into rarefied air with a 58.95 prelims swim at the Australian Olympic Trials. In finals, he one-upped himself, dropping even more time as he finished in 58.80. By day’s end, he had dropped over a second over the course of the year and had become the 3rd fastest Australian ever in the event and ranks 23rd fastest ever.

Of the trio, Sun appears to have the edge. He has experience at the Olympic level, is a World medalist, and has swum under 59.00 on multiple occasions.

The 59 Revolutions

Tied for 8th in the world is German breaststroke Melvin Imoudu, who popped off a speedy 58.84 at the recent European Swimming Championships last month. Imoudu has improved by leaps and bounds this calendar year. In Doha, he failed to final, finishing 14th, but has since been dropping time left and right. Imoudu appears to be taking the mantle over from Lucas Matzerath. Matzerath placed 9th at the 2021 Games and has made the finals at the last three world championships, placing as high as 5th in 2024 (58.88 in finals/58.74 prelims), but this season, he enters Paris with just the 20th fastest time this season with a 59.30.

Finishing 2nd and 3rd behind Imoudu in Belgrade at the European Champs were Berkay Ogretir and Andrius Sidlauskas. The Turkish and Lithuanian breaststroke were 59.23 and 59.27, respectively and rank 14th and 17th in the world this season. Like Charlie Swanson, the surprise 2nd US entrant in the event who ranks 13th with a 59.16, the pair may need to swim sub-59 to make the final. Similar to Swanson, Caspar Corbeau, who swam at Texas but represents the Netherlands, will likely need to pull out a personal best to make the finals. Corbeau swam a PB of 59.18 in May of this year, but with so many swimmers already under 59 this year, it will be a very tight semifinal.

His better medal shot is in the 200 breaststroke, where he was 2:07.99 in December.

The Verdict

Much like the Women’s 100 backstroke, there are a few distinct layers of swimmers. Qin and Peaty have already been under 58 this season and should be the two contenders for the gold medal. Qin gets the edge, despite Peaty having the faster personal best based on Qin’s consistency, twice swimming 57.69 over the past year.

With the top two spots taken, the battle for bronze will be intense. Fink gets the slight nod over Kamminga and Martinenghi despite having the slowest PB. Fink beat the pair in Doha and has been closer to his personal best more recently than the other two. However, he is by no means a lock; Kamminga was the first to join Peaty under 58 and remains just the third to do so.

After those three, the spots for 6th through 8th are wide open. Sun seems to have the best chance, as he recently went a PB and has been under 59 multiple times over a longer period of time than his competitors. Somov ranks ahead of Sun, but his 58.72 was so far out of nowhere that it could mean it was a flash in the pan, and Williamson and Imoudu, while slower, have shown a steady trajectory of improvement this season.

SWIMSWAM’S PICKS

Dark Horse: Ilya Shymanovich (INA) & James Wilby (GBR) – A pair of 2021 finalists, Shymanovich and Wilby find themselves quite far down the world rankings at 21st (59.35) and 28th (59.47) but have the proven experience to contend for a spot in the final. Shymanovich, who is Belorussian but was afforded Neutral Athlete Status is the world record holder in the Short course version of this event. While he placed 6th in Doha (59.35), he does hold a PB of 58.29 from 2019, and if he can turn back the clock a few years, he may be able to better his 8th place from Tokyo. Wilby is in an interesting position. He placed 2nd to Peaty in his trials and was under the OQT of 59.49, but his 59.47 didn’t break the Aquatics GB standard of 59.45. Wilby, who won silver in Tokyo as a prelims swimmer in the men’s 4×100 medley, placed 5th in the individual event (58.96) and holds a personal best of 58.46 from his silver medal-winning performance in the 2019 World Champs. He, like Shymanovich, will need to recapture the magic of those performances if he wishes to make another Olympic final.