# 2019 Men’s NCAA Predictions: How Did the Comment Section Do?

Jared Anderson

April 01st, 2019

## 2019 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

While we’ve revisited our own official predictions for the 2019 Men’s NCAA Championships, there’s a whole other set of predictions that deserve a re-visit: yours, from the SwimSwam comment section.

As we did in our wildly-popular roundup article after the women’s NCAA Championships, we dug through the comment sections of our own stories to catalog fan predictions for the men’s NCAA meet, tallying up correct, partially correct and incorrect predictions. Here are a few guidelines we used:

• We searched the comment sections of all event previews, plus all five editions of our Power Ranks throughout the season. There’s no guarantee we got them all – many were compiled during the week leading up to the meet (a pretty busy time for our staff), and any comments left after the start of the meet were not included.
• Comments had to be specific enough for us to determine if they turned out to be true or not – though we tried our best to quantify most claims, including the infamous one: “ya’ll sleeping on…” When a commenter brought up a specific team or swimmer with “Ya’ll sleeping on…” or a similar phrase, we specified that prediction to mean that said team or swimmer would finish higher than what we’d predicted.
• We also tried our best to filter out obvious joke comments. Pretty much every Dean Farris prediction didn’t make our cut, since most of them were about events he wasn’t swimming. We also cut out a number of copypasta-type comments about a couple other athletes that certain commenters are trying to turn into the next Farris meme. (Because that’s what everyone in swimming is clamoring for: another weird running joke to try to explain to anyone outside the sport).
• An acknowledgement: the SwimSwam comment section as a medium is probably best for big, bold predictions. No one is going to comment “Lilly King will win the 100 breast.” (Well, someone actually did in our women’s edition. But we’re guessing that was mostly a joke). So a high rate of prediction success is probably not totally attainable.
• Another acknowledgement: we didn’t include usernames on these, except to give credit to the predictions we found the most prescient. This isn’t about embarrassing specific commenters for making predictions. (As a staff of writers who have to publicly make predictions with our real names, then deal with the wrath of the comment section when any of those predictions don’t come true, we wouldn’t wish that on anyone, much less our loyal readers and commenters). It’s more about seeing how the “prevailing winds” of the comment section were blowing pre-meet, and where commenters did have great insight vs. where their predictions faltered.

### COMMENT SECTION PREDICTIONS:

• Success rate: 33.0% correct (down six percent from the women’s meet last week)

Best correct predictions:

• John Shebat will split 44 on butterfly in 400 medley relay – Samuel Huntington
• This one gets extra credit for coming way back in November in our Power Ranks. Individually, Shebat had just gone a lifetime-best 47.9 in butterfly about a month before this comment. He wound up going 43.8 on Texas’s third-place medley relay.
• Shebat 3rd behind Seliskar, Vazaios in 200 IM – Swim Addict
• Shebat predictions were the way to go, apparently. Swim Addict correctly predicted the top 3 in the 200 IM, especially impressive by including Shebat, who didn’t swim the event last year and was only the 8th seed.
• Alabama-Cal-NC State, in that order, all within 0.2 in the 200 medley relay – Swimmar
• This one is outstanding: very specific and right-on. That was the exact finish order, and the spread was 0.21 seconds.
• Andrew Seliskar passes Finnerty in the second 100 to win 200 breast – JP Input is too short
• This is how you predict right here: it’s unique and more specific than just “so-and-so wins.” It’s also informed, based off of 2018 results in that race, and it came perfectly true.
• Arizona will be top 20 as a team – Justin Wright
• This one gets a little bump for being made by a current national teamer posting under their real name. That takes guts. The prediction also comes from way back in October, and when we went back and forth with Justin in the comment section, the discussion was both extremely respectful and very fact-based. And he made some great arguments for why Arizona would crack the top 20 – arguments that now look great in hindsight. Justin Wright, you have been vindicated.
• Harvard will be top 10 as a team. – Snarky
• Another prediction from October. Well done, Snarky.

A lot of predictions got very specific this time around, adding up exact relay splits for projected composite relay times. And a handful of them were pretty accurate (though some were very, very ambitious in hindsight). Maybe the overall correct prediction numbers aren’t great from the comment section. But a good number of our commenters can be proud of how accurate they were with a few specific predictions here and there.

In in the interest of checking out prediction accuracy in hindsight, it’s also worth noting that our SwimSwam Official Picks entry into the Pick ‘Em Contest (made up of the picks from our event-by-event previews where most of these comments come from) finished 77th overall our of 674 entries. That’s not quite as good as our 7th-place finish on the women’s side, but still a solid result.

Here’s a look at all of the comment predictions we dug up:

 Prediction Exact Comment Correct? Notes Post Texas will qualify 20+ swimmers and 4 divers to NCAAs “I count 20+ Potential swimmers and 4 divers that can make NCAA’s for Texas. How many can they take and who’s left out?” Correct December edition Power Ranks Georgia will be top 8 in 800 free relay “Georgia will surprise people once again in this event. They never look great going into NC’s but somehow always manage a top 8” No They weren’t even top 16 800 free relay preview NC State will win 800 free relay “I’m curious about NC States 4th leg but not really worried. I think there three returning legs will be faster. Andreas 1:30.8 lead off , 1:31.2 is logical for molacek, and Ress is a god on relay anchors so 1:29 high is in sight. If they get a 1:32 mid to low they should win.” No They were second though – not far off, though the split predictions were too ambitious 800 free relay preview Indiana will be as good or better than NC State in 800 free relay “IU will be just as good or better” No Indiana was two places and about seven tenths behind NC State 800 free relay preview Indiana will go 6:03-high or 6:04-low in 800 free relay “IU- 6:03 high or 6:04 low” No This one always felt like a pipe dream. IU was 6:07 800 free relay preview Cal will be better than 5th in 800 free relay “I think Cal will move up. Zheng Quah and Trenton Julian have more left in them.” Correct 3rd. Julian did indeed split 1:31.7 800 free relay preview Cal won’t be better than 4th in 800 free relay “I just dont see them cracking the top three unless they can get a couple of 131s to go with Seli’s swim.” No Cal was 3rd 800 free relay preview Cal will be 4th or 5th in 800 free relay “Yeah I don’t think so either. Not a bad relay by any means but 4th or 5th is likely.” No 800 free relay preview NC State will win 800 free relay “Do you even taper Bro? This is NC States relay to lose” No 800 free relay preview Stewart won’t swim 800 free relay; NC State will be 6:06-6:07 “I doubt they put stewart on this relay…I don’t know if they have anyone else that could fill heads shoes. I predict a 6:06-6:07. Still a great time, but not quite last years.” No 800 free relay preview Texas will win 800 free relay “If Haas is on top of his game its game over. I can’t imagine anyone right now who’s close to match 1:29.5, then Texas’s depth will ensure the win.” Correct 800 free relay preview IU will be at least 6:06, could break 6:04 in 800 free relay “IU has the potential to questionally break 6:04. They have Mohammed Samy who has been 1:31, Apple who has been 1:31 and Finnerty and Vini who have been 1:32 from a relay. with a full year of training, they will be at least 6:06” No 800 free relay preview IU will be 6:04 in 800 free relay “I would not be surprised if IU actually delivers the 6:04.. much of it will be based on Apple and Lanza.. Lanza seems a lot faster this year and if Apple can swim a 1:30 it is possible.. The theory that IU went controlled mode on B1G will be tested.” No 800 free relay preview Texas 6:06.50 in 800 free relay “Don’t know how this will place but Texas will swim: Kibler 1:32.75, Newkirk 1:32.5, Katz, 1:32.00, Haas 1:29.25 – 6:06.50” No Shockingly, a time prediction that was too conservative. (Texas was 6:05.0) 800 free relay preview NC State wins 800 free relay, Tennessee top 8 in 800 free relay and team points “Discrimination is not nice. Truth is truth. NCState for the win and is this the year DeCoursey can lead the HEMEN-Vols into the top 8 onhtis relay AND in the TEAM RACE.” No No on both counts. (Tennessee scratched the relay) 800 free relay preview Shebat will split 44 in butterfly for Texas “Re: Shebat and 100 fly – his long course time this summer was very good and we know he is fantastic in short course so I am confident he will split 44 100 fly” Correct Shebat actually split 43.8. Great call here, four months out. November edition Power Ranks NC State wins 200 free relay “I’m choosing the sprint factory on this one. NC State wanted to win last year they’ll come back to win.” No 200 free relay preview NC State wins 400 medley relay “NC State will the win in this one. They have the depth to have a completely different 4 swimmers from prelims to finals. Those fresh swimmers will make the difference over the long haul of the meet. You heard it here first! WOLF-“ No 400 medley relay preview Texas beats Cal in 400 medley relay “I also think Texas beats Cal. Texas has the depth on free and back. Shebat also has some good underwaters so I wouldn’t worry about him on fly. Cal just has too many YOUNG superstars. I would bet on the experience of Texas over the speed of Cal.” No Ryan Hoffer buries this prediction by .02 400 medley relay preview Texas goes 3:01.00 in 400 medley relay “Texas: Katz 44.8, Charlie 50.8, Shebat 44.7, Jackson 40.7 – 3:01.00” Correct Split projections weren’t that far off, either (45.5/50.9/43.8/41.1) 400 medley relay preview Alabama 3:00.60 in 400 medley relay “Alabama: Waddell 44.5, Bams 51.4, Auerbach 44.8, Howard 39.9 – 3:00.60” No We all bought in too high on Waddell. No shame there. 400 medley relay preview Texas 1:15.3 in 200 free relay “Jackson 18.8, Kibler 18.9, Krueger 19.0, Shebat 18.6 – 1:15.3” Correct Close enough (1:15.11) 200 free relay preview Haas will win 500 free “ill admit to it for all of us.. everyone has always doubted Hass but he is such a powerhouse and there is really no chance of him losing this race” Correct Bold call 500 free preview Baqlah top 8 in 500 free “Khader Baklah from Florida will definitely be in the top 8” No Baqlah was 16th in both prelims and finals 500 free preview Seliskar wins 200 IM “Sell should win!” Correct 200 IM preview Victor Johansson makes 500 free A final “Johansson definitely top 8. Unshaven/tapered 4:13. He’s got something left.” No 30th 500 free preview Victor Johansson makes 500 free A final “Victor Johansson will make A-final. Had problems with injurie but is a great taper-swimmer” No 500 free preview Tate Jackson wins 50 free, 18.62 “Tate Jackson wins, 18.62.” No Had the winning time about right, just the wrong swimmer 50 free preview Howard wins 50 free, Jackson 2nd, Apple 3rd “Making another bold prediction here. Saying Howard takes this event with Jackson second and Apple third.” No 50 free preview Indiana breaks 3:00 and wins 400 medley relay “Indiana ftw sub 3:00” Correct 400 medley relay preview Howard beats Apple for 50 free title “Even if DeCoursey doe this typical NCAA tie add he should be around 19.32…which that score? Becker also adds time at NCAAs but I imagine he can still B Final. Looking like Apple and Howard at the wall with Howard getting the win.” No 50 free preview Howard, Becker, Hoffer 1-2-3 in 50 free “I think Hoffer is hungry after last season and will be fast coming into here. I don’t see him winning it against the likes of Howard or Becker but I’ll take a shot he will be top 3 I say Howard Becker Hoffer with Apple within a tenth of hoffer” No Here’s a prediction that’s relatively high on Hoffer, though, which was a surprising rarity 50 free preview Shebat 3rd in 200 IM behind Seliskar and Vazaios “Shebat for third behind Seli and Vazaios” Correct Great call here, nailing the top three including a big Shebat swim 200 IM preview 50 free: 1. Howard 2. Hoffer 3. Becker 4. Jackson 5 Ress “Prediction: Howard Hoffer Becker Jackson Ress” No 50 free preview Hoffer goes lifetime-best (18.71) and finishes 6th or better in 50. Apple wins “Think he’ll PB and finish higher than seventh, think Apple will win it.” Partially Hoffer lifetime-best is right. Apple didn’t win, but this one is a good enough prediction to get partial credit 50 free preview Howard wins, Hoffer & Ress top 3 in 50 free “Robert Howard with the dub, Hoffer and Ress rounding out the top three” No 50 free preview Bowen/Ress/Jackson/Sendyk/Apple finish order in 50 free “Agree with Bowen first, but I think Howard’s stroke is too dainty for the turbulence of NCAA 50 free final. And for that same reason I see Ress with his strong UWs higher. Also jackson I think is higher. My top would be Bowen/Ress/Jackson/Sendyk/Apple. Yours Truly, Expecting Mention in Post-Meet Commenters Prediction Writeup (AKA Small bird) “ No The infamous ‘dainty stroke’ comment 50 free preview Howard wins 50 free “Howard has been on a steady improvement and I think he takes it” No 50 free preview Becker wins 50 free “Bowen Becker 1st, very close race this year” No 50 free preview Howard 1st, Hoffer 2nd in 50 free “I’m going with Robert Howard – he has looked the most consistent this season. And I am ready to see Hoffer at his best – 18.68 for second.” No Close on the Hoffer time prediction, though 50 free preview Eric Knowles makes top 8 in 500 free “I’ll add my prediction of Eric Knowles of NCState cracking the top 8.” No Close though. Knowles was 10th and had to drop a second and a half to get there. Solid prediction 500 free preview Seliskar will win 200 free “Seli for the win” 200 free preview Whitley won’t beat Finnerty, Vissering in 100 breast “Still don’t think he can hang with Finnerty and Vissering in the 100. 200, he should challenge Seli and Finnerty.” Preview index Brendan Casey top 8 in 400 IM “What about Brendan Casey? He had a great swim at ACCs and has a very good chance of placing high in the A-final” Correct 400 IM preview David Schlicht top 8 in 400 IM “No respect for Schlicht” Correct 400 IM preview Haas wins 200 free, Texas gets 2 up, 2 down “Don’t bet against TH. Seliskar has had a great season but this is Townleys race to lose. Watch for Texas to get two up and two down here” No Texas actually outperformed the up/down prediction (3up/1down), but Haas lost 200 free preview Texas 1:21.8 in 200 medley relay “Texas will go Harty 20.7, Charlie 23.2, Shebat 19.8, Tate 18.1 – 1:21.8” No The first three projections were all within a tenth, but Jackson was nowhere near 18.1 (he was 18.8 here) 200 medley relay preview Texas higher than 7th in 200 medley relay “I don’t understand how we still sleep on Texas at this point” Correct They were 4th 200 medley relay preview 50.67 wins 100 breast “.50.67 should win it.” No 50.67 would’ve been 4th 100 breast preview Vissering second in 100 breast, close to breaking 50 “Picking Whitley over Vissering is a bold call. I think the senior Vissering will be second and close to breaking 50. I think Finnerty can be 49.4” Correct We’ll give it to ’em for getting the finish order. 50.30 probably counts as “close” to sub-50 100 breast preview Max McHugh beats Reece Whitley in 100 breast “I agree. Also McHugh should be ahead of Reece” Correct McHugh was 3rd, Whitley 4th, with six tenths between them 100 breast preview Charlie Scheinfeld drops time, pushes Whitley for 3rd in 100 breast “I know he’s a freshman, but Charlie is in his home pool and will probably be motivated to score some points for Texas. I don’t think he’ll win, but he should drop time and push Whitley for third.” No Scheinfeld didn’t drop time individually and was in the B final 100 breast preview Vissering beats Whitley in 100 breast “I’m gonna say Vissering ahead of Whitley. Whitley is more of a 200 guy in my opinion” Correct 100 breast preview Minnesota makes 200 medley relay A final “Dark Horse – Minnesota if they can get their lead off to go 21.5 or faster they’ll contend for Top 8 w/ the 3 other legs being ELITE!” No The Gophers wound up 17th 200 medley relay preview Florida goes under 1:23, makes finals of 200 medley relay “I like Florida’s chances to improve in this relay. I don’t think Stokowski or Rooney showed everything at SECs. If Guarente or Hillis and Davis can just hold their times, they should be under 1:23 and easily into finals.” No Florida missed the A final and weren’t under 1:24 200 medley relay preview Alabama wins 200 medley relay “Alabama is taking this one. Waddell with the fastest first 50 will give them clean water the whole way” Correct A good call here 200 medley relay preview Shebat goes sub-20 fly or sub-20.65 back on 200 medley. Robert Howard splits sub-18.5 at some point “no matter what, John Shebat is gonna show out on this relay. Sub-20 if fly, sub-20.65 if backstroke. Robert Howard also gonna drop a sub 18 50 free on this relay or the 2free” Correct A prediction comes true in one fell swoop – Shebat was 19.8 fly and Howard 18.2 free in finals of the 200 medley relay 200 medley relay preview Michigan will make top 8 in 200 medley relay “Michigan not even in 8th place at least???” No All the incredulousness (and extra question marks) in the world couldn’t get Michigan any higher than 18th 200 medley relay preview Alabama wins, Cal 2nd, NC State 3rd in 200 medley relay. All within 0.2 seconds “Alabama 1st, Cal 2nd, NC State 3rd, all within .2 seconds of each other.” Correct Wow. Candidate for prediction of the meet here. Got the finish order exact and the spread was .21 200 medley relay preview Alabama wins 200 medley in 1:21.85, both NC State and Cal are high 1:21s. “This is a great analysis. I’m predicting Bama touches the wall first in 1:21.85 in one of the closest finishes ever, with both NC State and Cal swimming in the high 1:21s also. This is Zane’s first year swimming backstroke on this relay, and it’s conceivable that he goes even faster at NCAAs, besting Ryan Murphy’s all time fastest split of 20.20. Last year in the 100 backstroke Zane dropped 0.48 seconds at NCAAs from his 208 SEC swim. Look for Bama to almost certainly have clean water after the backstroke. Also, while Robert’s 2019 SEC split is already fast at 18.30, he anchored this relay at both SECs and NCAAs last year, dropping 0.34 seconds at NCAAs. Another commentator, Roll Tide, has already noted the safe starts used at 2019 SECs. Finally, Swim Swam earlier referenced Coach Pursley stating that swimming fast at NCAAs will be be given more emphasis than doing so at SECs this year.” No Got the Alabama part right, but the time predictions were much quicker than actuality 200 medley relay preview Scheinfeld third in 100 breast in 50.99 “Scheinfeld 50.99 3rd” No Scheinfeld was 11th and didn’t break 52 100 breast preview Four or more men will break 51 in the 100 breast “50.99 won’t get third. More like 4th or 5th.” No Close – three were under and a fourth just a tenth away 100 breast preview Coleman Stewart will win 100 fly “Don’t sleep on Coleman Stewart for the dub.” No Stewart was a tenth away, though 100 fly preview Jack Saunderson wins 100 fly “My money is on Saunderson the man is a beast” No 100 fly preview Jack Saunderson 43.9 in 100 fly “Saunderson- 43.9 book it” No 100 fly preview Daniel Graber makes top 8 in 100 breast “Don’t sleep on Daniel Graber! Kid is training in the best program in America! WOLF-“ No Graber was 40th of 41 swimmers 100 breast preview Coleman Stewart wins 100 fly “He will get the win. Heard it here first! WOLF-“ No 100 fly preview Finnerty puts up one of fastest 50 breast splits in history “Btw, in that 200mr, Finnerty’s reaction time was 0.78. I bet he puts up one of the fastest splits in history when he’s not playing it so safe.” No 23.1 – fastest in history is 22.5 100 breast preview 200 free: Haas wins (1:29.5), Seliskar 2nd (1:29.7) “1. Townley Haas 1:29.5, 2. Andrew Seliskar 1:29.7″ No 200 free preview Finnerty goes 48 in 100 breast “48 for Finnerty” No 100 breast preview Vissering is closer to Finnerty than either are to 3rd place in 100 breast “I think Vissering will be closer to Finnerty than either of them are to 3rd place.” No I actually like this prediction. It’s specific and interesting. But Max McHugh beat it, coming within .2 of Vissering, who was .5 back from Finnerty 100 breast preview Saunderson lower than 5th in 100 fly “I think you may be a bit high on Saunderson. Obviously 51.44 is no joke but LCM 100 fly is a very different race than SCY 100 fly” Correct Say it with us: long course and short course swimming are different. 100 fly preview Finnerty-1st Vissering 2nd Scheinfeld 3rd in 100 breast “I’m feeling a 2012 NBA finals Lebron James type performance from Reece whitley(prolly gonna finish like 6th or 7th). Vissering definitely gonna show up(potential sub 50) and Scheinfeld gonna put on a show as well. Finnerty-1st Vissering 2nd Scheinfeld 3rd” No Got the top 2 right. But Whitley’s finish place was off, as was the Scheinfeld prediction 100 breast preview Waddell better than 8th in 100 back “Waddell only eighth after going the second-fastest 50 in history on a half-taper? Stacked field, but one has to think he’ll be a contender for the title if a full rest can translate into him holding his speed better.” No This is a toughie. Waddell was 8th… until Daniel Carr’s re-swim. Though the SEC half-taper didn’t seem to work out exactly, as Waddell mostly added time at NCAAs. Though maybe he was only on a quarter-taper at that point. 100 back preview NC State and Texas account for 6 of 8 100 back A finalists “Shebat and Katz are worth mentioning, but I’m surprised Texas’ top seed in the 100 back this year doesn’t get a mention (Ryan Harty). In fact, NC State and Texas could account for 6 of 8 finalists in this event.” No Only 3/8 were from Texas or NC State. Though the commenter was right to predict Harty specifically to the A final 100 back preview Katz A finals in 100 back “Katz no A final?” No Katz was 16th until the re-swim knocked him out of scoring, though his prelims relay leadoff (44.9) would’ve gotten him into the A final. 100 back preview Harty breaks 45 and makes A final of 100 back “Ryan Harty has never really nailed NCAAs. whether it was because he was recovering from injury, or whatnot. This is his last chance, and he’s been looking good all year. Obviously I don’t expect him to win this event (but if he “hits”, he could definitely take the 200), but I think he will break 45 and make the final.” No Half right: he made the A final, but was only 45.05 in both prelims and finals 100 back preview Justin Ress makes 100 back A final “I’m suprised you don’t have Justin Ress in the mix at all. That’s someone I’ll be looking out for out of the first heat in prelims.” No Another case of long course prowess not transferring exactly to short course yards 100 back preview Paul DeLakis makes top 8 in 200 free “I feel like Paul Delakis at least deserves a mention with a 1:31.3 split on a relay at B1Gs” Correct Good call on this commenter, who read the tea leaves of conference relay splits for this correct prediction 200 free preview Lanza wins 100 fly “As much as I want Saunderson to win, I think Lazna will win this one” Correct 100 fly preview Saunderson wins 100 fly “Saunderson for the win” No 100 fly preview Bobby Finke wins 400 IM & Mile “Bobby Finke wins the 4im and mile. You heard it here first. Rooney has the potential for top 3 finishes in 100 fly/free, Baqlah same in 200/500. Smith/Freeman/Stokowski can score in all their events. As always they are deep in IM/back and might eek out some B finalists between Lebed/Main/Beach. Relays are a huge question. Rooney is entered in the 100 free/200 fly double… but could he do more damage on 5 relays?” No Finke was 25th in the IM and 12th in the mile. Final edition Power Ranks Zane Backes will score in both breaststrokes “As for the Hoosiers Zane Backes is definitely a scorer in both breasts.” No This is actually a pretty good prediction, especially considering it was made way back in October. Backes was 5th in the 100 breast, but struggled in the 200 and missed scoring. His 200 breast seed time, though, would’ve snuck into the last spot in the B final. First edition Power Ranks Abruzzo will be top 8 in the mile, close in 500 and 400 IM “I can easily see him being top 8 in the 1500, and close to top 8 in the 500 and 400IM.” No Depends on how you define “close.” Abruzzo was 30th in the IM, 32nd in the 500 and 35th in the mile. It’s why we don’t rank NCAA recruits on how good a swimmer they are in long course, but by how their skillsets translate to the NCAA scoring format. First edition Power Ranks Finke will win the mile “I think he has more in him honestly. After he dropped a 14:55 at Nationals this past summer, he backed it up with another huge drop of 14:48 at Pan Pacs. He has a decent shot in the 4 IM at NCs and I don’t see anyone touching him in the mile.” No 400 IM preview Coleman Stewart 5th or better in 200 back “I would not sleep on Coleman Stewart so much…” Correct He was indeed 4th. 200 back preview Stewart 2nd in 200 back “#FACTS I’ve got him 2nd here” No 200 back preview Dahlgren & Whyte make big drops in 200 back “I’d watch out for Dahlgren (Missouri) and Whyte (Louisville) potentially making big drops” Partially We’ll give partial credit to this prediction centered on former Minnesota high school athletes. Whyte did drop a tenth and took 11th. Dahlgren added time, but only a few tenths. 200 back preview Dahlgren & Whyte won’t make 200 back A final “They’ve made their drops for the season. The only freshman that could’ve had a chance at top 5 is Casas, but he’s not even swimming it anymore.” Correct As we said above, Whyte did make a small drop, but neither made the A final 200 back preview Apple wins 100 free “Apple wins” No No one won this weekend by doubting the Dean 100 free preview Ress wins 100 free “I appreciate seeing someone else predicting Justin Ress will win. Second best time in the field. More consistent then Jackson ( it was smart for him not swim at big 12). And he has the second fastest relay split ever only behind Caleb Dressel.” No 100 free preview Haas wins 100, 200, 500 free “Townley for the sweep!” No 100 free preview Haas won’t win 100 free “Would not hesitate to pick him in the LC version of this but not the SCY” Correct LCM=/=SCY, guys. Good prediction here. 100 free preview Ress or Jackson wins 100 free “This is either Tate Jackson’s year or Justin’s one …..lets see that unfolding next week ….” No 100 free preview 40.69 will win 100 free “I predict a 40.69 will win it this year. Field is pretty wide open.” No Fairly close – it was 40.80 100 free preview Mohamed Samy wins 100 free “Hot Take – Mohamed (Misho) Samy of the Hoosiers. Man trains like a bear. Because he is a bear.” No Think this one might’ve been a joke that slipped through our radar… 100 free preview Robert Howard places better than 7th in 100 free “For real? For real? This man Robert Howard goes the hardest and gets disrespected here on the reg.” Correct Howard did indeed take 5th, though we’re still trying to confirm that he “went the hardest” 100 free preview Jackson wins 100 free “Jackson FTW. He’s due for the right race at the right time. He has the top water speed to swim away from the field. Home pool, senior year, it’s a perfect set-up.” No 100 free preview No one goes 39 in 100 free “Will we see another 39? Nope. Long live king Dressel” Correct What a disappointing year, not a single 39 100 free preview 100 free A final: Howard,Ress,Jackson,Syndek,Apple, Becker, Haas, Rooney “Man what a loaded event: A finals: Howard,Ress,Jackson,Syndek,Apple, Becker, Haas, Rooney / B: DeCoursey, Farris, Kibler, Molacek, Hoffer, Blaskovik, Jensen, Baqluah / 41.98 to make A final / 42.24 to get a second swim” No 5/8 in the A final isn’t too bad. Time predictions were only about a tenth or two away 100 free preview Blaise Vera Makes top 16 in 100 free “Man you guys are sleeping on Blaise Vera. Big things coming from him this year” No Sometimes, sleep is good 100 free preview NC State wins no events “Semi-bold prediction: NC State doesn’t win a single race this year.” No This one was three events away from coming true – NC State didn’t get its first event win until the 200 fly, the meet’s third-to-last event. 100 breast preview Maxime Rooney top 8 in 100 free “Finally some respect for MAXIME. Don’t count him out in the 100 free either.” No Seems like the 200 fly/100 free combo really killed Rooney’s final day. He was 18th here. 100 fly preview 100 free: Jackson (40.7), Ress (40.8), Apple (40.9), Howard (41.2), Farris (41.3) “1. Jackson (40.7) 2. Ress (40.8) 3. Apple (40.9) 4. Howard (41.2) 5. Farris (41.3)” No 100 free preview 41.0 wins 100 free “41.0 wins it” No Two men cracked 41 in the final, though 41.0 was the top prelims time on the dot 100 free preview Katz or Shebat go 1:36 in 200 back “I think we see a 1:36 here from a Texas guy, Shebat or Katz” Correct How about Katz and Shebat? 200 back preview If Fink improves 500 seed, he will win the 1650. And if he leads with 200 to go, he will win the mile “We’ll know who has the hot hand after the 500, but if Finke improves at all from the 4:14 high he went at SECs, he should win going away. No one will catch him if he’s leading with 200 to go.” No To be fair, this one was conditional, and Finke didn’t improve his 500 seed. 1650 free preview Norman will be ‘right with’ Aubock and Finke most of the mile “Don’t think he will win but I think Norman will be right with Auboeck and Finke for most of the race.” Correct Finke wasn’t in the picture, but Norman did stick within a second of Auboeck through at least the 950. That’s technically “most” of the race. 1650 free preview Chris Yeager goes sub-14:30 and places top 3 in the mile “Yeager bombs to place top 3 and crack 14:30” No 14:47.44 for 17th 1650 free preview Yeadon finishes top 3 in 1650 free “Yeadon is due for a big time swim with a year of experience under his belt and a full taper. Big threat to finish top 3” No 13th 1650 free preview Finke wins the mile “Finke for the win” No 1650 free preview 1. Seliskar 2. Whitley 3. Finnerty in 200 breast “1. Seliskar 2. Whitley 3. Finnerty” No Ya’ll sleeping on Max McHugh. See, I can do it, too. 200 breast preview Texas wins 400 free relay “I’m in. I also don’t think it’s wise to pick anyone other than Texas for the W in this relay.” Correct By a good second 400 free relay preview Tennessee A finals in 400 free relay “Why is Tennessee not listed as a final team in this relay? The HEMEN Vols are very fast!” No 400 free relay preview Indiana beats Cal and Texas in 400 free relay “So can someon explain to me how cal and Texas are going to beat Indiana. Samy, apple and Bruno with 41. Best times and Franzman with a 41.5 split.” No 400 free relay preview Florida State won’t beat Ohio State in 400 free relay “If Florida State beats Ohio State, I will give every person who replies to this 2$” No Someone is ponying up some serious cash this morning 400 free relay preview Ohio State doesn’t break 2:50 in 400 free relay, Florida State goes about 2:48.5 “Im confident Ohio State won’t even break 2:50, FSU will do 2:48.5 again I think” Partially Ohio State did break 2:50 in prelims, but the 2:48.5 prediction for Florida State was dead-on. 400 free relay preview Seliskar loses 200 free, wins 200 breast “I think Seliskar gets beat in the 200 IM and free and that’s just going to motivate him to pull something in the 200 breast. My common sense says to pick Finnerty but a motivated Andrew Seliskar is just to good not to pick.” No 200 breast preview Seliskar 1:48, Finnerty 1:49 in 200 breast “Seli with the win 1:48 mid, Finnerty 1:49. Rest of the field way behind” Partially We’ll give it to them for hitting the times right, though the rest of the field wasn’t way behind. 200 breast preview Seliskar passes Finnerty and wins 200 breast in the back half “I think Seliskar rides with Finnerty for the first 100 and slingshots past on the back half. Although Finnerty split his race at Big Ten’s a lot cleaner than his NCAA win last year. Maybe he’s learned pacing better and will be able to pull out the win?” Correct Great call here. Seliskar trailed Finnerty by two tenths at the 100 and took over on the very next 50. 200 breast preview Katz wins 200 back “As a Longhorn fan, I’d be thrilled with any manner of 1-2 finish, but I predict Austin Katz has been pacing himself this season, and will succeed in defending his 200 Back title!” No Second to John Shebat 200 back preview Zach Harting makes 200 fly A final “Zach Harting was 5th in the world in SCM yet is not even projected for a top 8 here?” No A new addition to our equations: SCM=/=SCY 200 fly preview Farris finishes no higher than 5th in any event “Here is a bold prediction that will get probably the most down votes in history (if enough people see it). Dean will not finish in the top 4 in any of his events at NCAAs.” No Yikes 50 free preview Zach Fong wins 200 fly “I think someone from USA wins the 200 fly this year – I’m predicting UVA’s Zach Fong to pull the upset win!” No He was 5th, though 200 fly preview Victor Johansson 1650 top 8 finisher “What about Victor Johansson?” No 1650 free preview Cal puts 3 into 200 fly A final “Trenton Julian is one fierce competitor. Three Golden Bears in the A final.” No They put two up, but the third was 14th in prelims 200 fly preview Mizzou will finish ahead of Alabama and USC “Y’all really sleep on Mizzou. No way Alabama or USC rank above them.” No Alabama beat Mizzou by 37, though the Tigers beat USC by 24 Final edition Power Ranks Florida will finish ahead of Michigan “Really like Florida here, baby Gators killing it. I have them ahead of Michigan.” Correct Final edition Power Ranks Michigan will finish ahead of Florida “Top Michigan guys are experienced and looks like they didnt fully rest for big tens. I have them ahead of Florida” No Michigan struggled hard, but this predictor shouldn’t feel too bad. We bought in way too high on them, too. Final edition Power Ranks Virginia will finish better than 17th “Virginia looks like they have a few individual top 8 seeds. If they can hold onto that and put together some decent relays they can easily be a lot better than 17th.” Correct Virginia was one of the breakout teams of the meet, taking 10th Final edition Power Ranks Viginia Tech will be top 20 “You are really going to overlook VT? 11 qualifiers 9 swimmers 2 divers?” No 35th. Also, they didn’t have 11 qualifiers, so this one was doomed from the start. Final edition Power Ranks Arizona will be top 20 as a team “No love for Arizona again. Feels bad man.” Correct Good call on ‘Zona, who had a great meet and took 16th First edition Power Ranks Florida and Virginia will beat Tennessee as a team “UF and UVA behind TN? If we are talking “DiveDove” rankings for sure but no comparison with swimming included in the ranking.” Correct They get this one by a hair – Florida easily beat Tennessee, but UVA only topped the Vols by a single point First edition Power Ranks Georgia won’t crack the top 10 as a team “Can’t see how GA is cracking the top ten this year…” Correct First edition Power Ranks Texas will win and their freshmen will score as much as a top-5 team “Longhorns win and Longhorns’ freshmen class alone takes top 5.” No This infamous comment got brought up a lot this week. Though our resident math experts pretty quickly debunked the idea that a freshman class could score top-5 points by themselves, the results backed it up. Texas freshmen scored 46 points, good enough for 24th as a team. First edition Power Ranks Ohio State will finish top 20 as a team “very surprising that Ohio State didnt make the list. They have a lot talent on the team and I believe at least they can do some big things this year in there conference and at ncaa’s.” Correct Not just top 20, but top 10 First edition Power Ranks Virginia will be between 15th and 17th as a team “As much as I love UVA, I have to think that #12 is too high for them this year. Next year, they should probably be top 10 if all goes according to plan. But maybe more like 15-17 is a more realistic position for them this year.” No A UVA fan who was too low on UVA? That might be a first First edition Power Ranks Texas A&M finishes top 5 as a team “Aggies finish top 5. Mark my words.” No Consider your words marked. And revisited. First edition Power Ranks Harvard finishes top 10 as a team “Harvard will be top 10. Trust me.” Correct Great call here, all the way back in October First edition Power Ranks Virginia Tech will be top 20 as a team “Virginia tech? Two top 10 relays and they beat Notre Dame and Ohio state” No November edition Power Ranks Auburn will be top 20 as a team “How is it that Auburn didn’t even get a mention….can’t believe they are that low on the list.” No November edition Power Ranks Texas will win NCAAs as a team “TEXAS LONGHORNS seem now, more than ever, to be a “lock” on yet another NCAA/D-1 title; if one can dare to make such a prognostication in December – Ugh, out on a limb.” No December edition Power Ranks Georgia won’t be top 10, or top 3 at SECs “No way Georgia is #10. It’s not 2017 anymore. I doubt they’ll be top 3 at SECs. Their relays aren’t competitive at all” Correct 5th at SECs, 18th at NCAAs December edition Power Ranks Virginia will finish worse than 14th, Minnesota worse that 16th, Harvard worse than 19th and Georgia Tech worse than 20th. “Harvard and Minnesota have no relay depth. George Tech has little individual depth. UVA hasn’t proven anything yet – and lost there best sprint free man. Some of these rankings make me scratch my head.” No Correct on 2/4 (Minnesota was 19th and GT 24th) but very incorrect on Virginia (10th) and Harvard (8th) December edition Power Ranks USC won’t be top 10 “I don’t see USC men scoring enough points to place top 10. They haven’t looked good of late” Correct Not even close: they were 20th February edition Power Ranks Harvard finishes top 15 as a team “Harvard should be in the top 15… they had 3 scoring relays last year without a great meet, so I’d look for more this year. 4 x 200 should make the A-final.” Correct February edition Power Ranks Notre Dame finishes top 20 as a team “I could see Notre Dame sneaking into the top 20. Distance, Backstroke and IM event scorers.” No February edition Power Ranks ### In This Story ### 42 Leave a Reply Subscribe Notify of 42 Comments Inline Feedbacks View all comments Anakin 2 years ago Well seems like I owe the SwimSwam comment sections 30$. I am thinking of a good way to pay this debt without giving any personal information away

2 years ago

Lol why don’t you just make a donation to Swim Across America. I think all of our commenters would be happy with that as a settlement.

2 years ago

I want my two dollars Anakin, I will haunt your midichlorian laced dreams until I get it.

Ancillary: midichlorian – midi = chlorine. Can we start referring to swimmers in terms of Jedi strength?

Anakin
2 years ago

Seems fair to me

WillSwim
2 years ago

Pfff. I guess these are okay, but I heard that Joseph Schooling was able to correctly predict every single event in practice.

googoodoll
2 years ago

It is time to start predictions for 2020 NCAAs..I WILL go out on a limb a pick Cal, TX, LOUISVILLE as top 3, Seli as Swimmer of the Meet and Xjuain Zixuu as Diver of the Meet (The incoming freshman diver for UL from Mongolia.)

Bearly Breathing
2 years ago

>Seli as Swimmer of the Meet
Um…

gator
2 years ago

2020 prediction – CAL will score points in diving

JP input is too short
2 years ago

I had my “no NC State wins” prediction in mind the whole weekend… I knew the 200 fly would be the best chance to prove that one false!

50free
2 years ago

I got a “good call here.” For predicting Alabama win medley with Waddell first on back😁

Swimmy
2 years ago

For the Texas freshman, if we made them into relays, how many points would they score?

Swimmer
2 years ago

The Texas freshman were supposed to be a top 5 team all by themselves. Big Texas dreams for that to happen. Surprisingly a lot of Texans believed it.

Horninco
2 years ago

Anyone who said that was high or trolling you.

Horninco
2 years ago

98 points

With -.5 for exchanges:

A Kibler leadoff (1:32.6) with Krueger (1:32.8), Willenbring (1:33.4) and Zettle (1:34.7 didn’t swim NCAA, lifetime 1:35.2 at big 12)) relay gets 6:13.5ish and finish 9th for 18 points

A 400 free of Krueger leading off (41.6) with Kibler (41.7) Willenbring (42.4) and Bowman (43, a 43.5 from big 12’s) goes 2:48.7 and scores 26 points for 6th

A 200 free of Kibler leading (19.1) and then Krueger (18.8), Charlie (19.7) and Bowman (19.3) goes 1:16.9 and finished 13th in the B finals for 8.

A 200 medley of Park (21.9 at big 12), Charlie (23.1), Kibler (20.4) and Krueger (18.8) go 1:24.6 and finish 11th for 12 points… Read more »

Swimmy
2 years ago

Thanks for doing it out!

Bobthebuilderrocks
2 years ago

Isn’t Bowman a sophomore?

horninco
2 years ago

Correct, I looked at his age and assumed freshman. Good catch. Using Zettle’s 43.98 instead from Big 12’s makes the 400 free a 2:49.7 and finishes and stays 6th

200 Free relay is trickier since very few freshman besides Kib and Krue swam it an Big 12’s, but Park had a 20.55 flat so make it 20.1 , that takes to 200 free estimate to 1:17.7. They would have been 15th with 4 points so that’s -4.

Still 100 points and 13th. Not too Shabby all the same.

Anonymous 2
2 years ago

Bowman is a sophomore so not completely accurate.

Speed Racer
2 years ago

😂 of course relays are going to look amazing if you pull in best times from other meets. Zettle was a 1:37.75 and Willenbring 1:33.98 200Free at NCAAs. Nothing compares to NCAAs. Pulling best times from other meets is like comparing apples to oranges.

Swimmer
2 years ago

When you are desperate for satisfaction this is what you do.

horninco
2 years ago

1st or 2nd 10 of the last 11 years. 13 national titles in 30 years. I’m good, but thanks.

horninco
2 years ago

You must be fun at parties.

All times were from 2019 NCAA’s with -0.5 subtracted for relay starts or from Big 12’s a month earlier for those who didn’t swim NCAA’s. Exception was Zettle who swam tapered at Big 12’s and then didn’t hold it for NCAA’s, So I used that under the assumption that to maximize the team like Eddie usually does, you taper him for NCAA’s not Big 12’s since his tapered time wasn’t likely to score individually but would have a huge impact on relay placement.

Willenbrings 1:33.9 was moved to a 1;33.4. because you go from flat start to relay start, so I took away -.50 for all times when converting from flat to… Read more »

Speed Racer
2 years ago

NCAAs is in a class all its own. I would suggest using only NCAA times and if that means you are short a few freshman for your mythical relays then you don’t actually have a relay. If Zettle doesn’t have a 100free from NCAAs then he doesn’t have a 100free to use. Base the Texas Freshman class on their performances at NCAA’s. Respect NCAA’s for the what it is, one of the world’s toughest meets. Using times from meets where the stress levels are minimal at best is not an accurate comparison. I know this week must have been difficult for you but there is no need for such jabby comments.

Swimmer
2 years ago

I think Horninco is looking for some sort of satisfaction from a very depressing week. It’s hard to accept when all the hype didnt add up and the horns are not used to losing. When you base your whole season on NCAAs and it failed, it’s hard to accept. The way Texas is set up NCAAs should be your best times and for many swimmers it just wasn’t there. If a swimmer swam thru conference and most dual meets it makes for a unrewarding season when NCAAs were a busy. The horns were favored all year and they were swimming at home, A good theory would be to say the horns were not shaved and tapered. They were swimming thru… Read more »

Swimmer
2 years ago

Somehow my comment “This is Hoffer’s year and he is going to win” on the 50 free preview didn’t make the cut. Maybe because I contradicted myself and picked him 3rd in the pick’em contest lol

horninco
2 years ago

I wasn’t too bad, I was cringing as I typed most of them.