SwimSwam Pulse: 75% Predict Dressel To Make U.S. Olympic 4×200 Free Relay

SwimSwam Pulse is a recurring feature tracking and analyzing the results of our periodic A3 Performance Polls. You can cast your vote in our newest poll on the SwimSwam homepage, about halfway down the page on the right side, or you can find the poll embedded at the bottom of this post.

Our most recent poll asked SwimSwam readers whether Caeleb Dressel would make the U.S. Olympic team in the 200 free:

RESULTS

Question: Will Caeleb Dressel make the U.S. Olympic Team in the 200 free?

  • Yes, as a relay swimmer (3rd-6th) – 75.8%
  • Yes, as an individual (Top 2) – 16.8%
  • No – 7.4%

More than three-quarters of voters predicted that Dressel would make the Olympic team as a 4×200 free relay swimmer, with 16.8% more picking Dressel to make the individual 200 free.

That leaves just 7.4% of voters predicting Dressel to avoid the Olympic 200 free entirely. Dressel confirmed earlier this month that he was planning to swim the 200 free at U.S. Olympic Trials, but he could still scratch the race, or swim a one-and-done prelims race, just to get a time for relay consideration.

Dressel should have a very busy Olympic Trials lineup. He’s the favorite to make the Olympic team in the 50 free, 100 free, and 100 fly, events in which he is the defending world champion. He’s the world record-holder in the butterfly and just inches away in both freestyles.

Adding the 4×100 medley relay, 4×100 free relay, and mixed 4×100 medley relay to the mix, Dressel should have six strong Olympic events. Adding the 4×200 free relay could bring him to seven, and the individual 200 free would hit eight. That’s a bit of a magic number, made so by Michael Phelps‘ legendary showings at the 2004 Athens Olympics (then a record 8 medals in a single Games) and 2008 Beijing Olympics (a record 8 gold medals in a single Games).

 

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PFA
4 months ago

As an American I want the US to make the podium but still more likely to not be on the podium than to win gold at this point but it’s still a little early to really tell where everyone is.

Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
Reply to  PFA
4 months ago

GBR and RUS look awfully strong in calendar year 2021.

PFA
Reply to  Smith-King-Dahlia-Manuel
4 months ago

Yeah we kinda know internationally where some are but because trials aren’t for around 1.5 months, were still left wondering how well will the US do. Also Aussie trials are happening soon before US trials but I feel it’s still a bit irrelevant right now 3+ months out of Tokyo when really anything can happen.

Last edited 4 months ago by PFA
Stephen
Reply to  PFA
4 months ago

Aussie trials also 1.5. On the away.

Stephen
Reply to  Stephen
4 months ago

Aussie trials 12th to 17th June……7 weeks

Horninco
Reply to  PFA
4 months ago

Townley anchors in 1:41.9 you heard it here first

Aussie Crawl
Reply to  Horninco
4 months ago

Dreaming.

USA 4x100 Medley Gold Medel 2021
Reply to  Horninco
4 months ago

exactly

usaswimerror
Reply to  Horninco
4 months ago

Didn’t know the Olympics were now scm.

maybe?
4 months ago

They’re gonna need some magic from Dressel just to get a medal in the 4×200 at Tokyo, without him, I would definitely favour GB, Australia and Russia over the US

notaswimmer
4 months ago

Why should Dressel tire himself out to compete in a race in which the US may not even medal in, let alone win gold?

Stephen
Reply to  notaswimmer
4 months ago

I sorta agree with that.

BKP
Reply to  notaswimmer
4 months ago

I think Dressel has shown more integrity than that…if called upon, he will swim the relay.

Riccardo
4 months ago

It has to be a slam dunk he is one of the 4 fastest and enhances the finals relay for him to be on it imo. Because there is no point in him doing a prelim 200 free the night before the 100 free final.

swimfast
4 months ago

I’m gonna go on a limb and say that he actually can make it individually if he *wants* to. I just think, according to his interviews regarding the race, that he really just doesn’t care for it. Not that he doesn’t care about it, just doesn’t seem to zero in on it like the sprints. He has the American record in the SCY 200 IM, and trains at Florida: a marquee middle distance school….I think if he actually legit put his energy into it he really, truly could go 1:44. It’s not like he even dies at all, he doesn’t take it out fast enough, and the guy goes 46.9 in the 100.

Wanna Sprite?
4 months ago

I’m willing to bet that he slows down the last 10 meters on purpose in order to not make the individual event which would contradict with his schedule

sggs
Reply to  Wanna Sprite?
4 months ago

I don’t think youre forced to swim the individual just because you finish in the top 2

Last edited 4 months ago by sggs
BadShoulder
Reply to  sggs
4 months ago

Phelps won the 200 free at trials in 2012 but didn’t swim it in London

1.43.1 in the 200 free in a jammer is next level
Reply to  BadShoulder
4 months ago

Because he knew Yannick Agnel was on fire.

Admin
Reply to  sggs
4 months ago

That’s correct. We’ve seen swimmers finish top 2 at Trials and decline the individual swim. Phelps, for example, scratched the 200 free individually after the 2012 Trials, and Davis Tarwater was added for the relay (even though he was still swimming the relay – a decision that still doesn’t make sense to me as justification to call up Tarwater but whatever, it worked out).

It would be frowned upon to show up at Tokyo and scratch an event though. Not sure if there would be a formal sanction, but that choice would be universally reviled and criticized.

Sportinindc
Reply to  Braden Keith
4 months ago

And Dara Torres won the 100 free at the 2008 Trials, gave up her individual spot and was on both 4 x 100 relays in Beijing.

swimgeek
Reply to  Braden Keith
4 months ago

Phelps was 2nd to Piersol in the 2Back in 2004 — decided 9 races for Athens was too much.

MICHAEL
Reply to  Wanna Sprite?
4 months ago

Why? I mean…Phelps got 2nd in the 200 back in 2004 and gave up his spot…

BKP
4 months ago

So is Biondi the last man to have medaled in the 50/100/200 at the same Olympics? This just adds more context for me on how impressive that was.

I would think Dressel would have to put up a huge time at Trials to consider it individually. Beyond that he probably has a great shot at the top 6

Troyy
Reply to  BKP
4 months ago

vd Hoogenband did it in 200. Gold in 100/200 and bronze in 50.

Commonwealths>Pan Pacs
Reply to  Troyy
4 months ago

You literally beat me to this by 1 minute.

There's no doubt that he's tightening up
Reply to  Troyy
4 months ago

PVDH is a friggin legend.

Got medals in all three of the 50/100/200 free in 2001 and 2003 Worlds too. Shame him and Popov somehow failed to make the semis in Athens.

Aussie Crawl
Reply to  BKP
4 months ago

Ian Thorpe,
100,200,400 freestyle 2004

Commonwealths>Pan Pacs
Reply to  Aussie Crawl
4 months ago

And also once held the world record in the 800. Quite some range.

ddd
4 months ago

I think America needs the magic of dressel to get the podium.
At the time of selection, Russia and the UK are already fast enough to challenge the world record. But I also want Dressel to focus on other events without swimming in the 200m freestyle.
Points to be worried about!

About Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson

Jared Anderson swam for nearly twenty years. Then, Jared Anderson stopped swimming and started writing about swimming. He's not sick of swimming yet. Swimming might be sick of him, though. Jared was a YMCA and high school swimmer in northern Minnesota, and spent his college years swimming breaststroke and occasionally pretending …

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