Submitted by Robert Gibbs
What do you remember about 1994? Personally, growing up in the US, I remember a lot of major news headlines from that year, especially that summer and fall. Michael Jordan retired from basketball and attempted to play minor league baseball. OJ Simpson’s ex-wife and her boyfriend were murdered, with OJ being the prime suspect, and leading police on a low-speed chase in his Bronco. I was a big baseball fan, and current Nationals manager Matt Williams was playing third base for the Giants and on pace to break Roger Maris’s single season home run record. Then, the Major League Baseball Players Association went on strike, and the playoffs and World Series were cancelled. That fall, President Bill Clinton’s Democrats lost the House of Representatives to Newt Gingrich and the GOP’s Contract With America.
Seem a long time ago? It was also the last time the US men failed to earn a gold medal in the 200 back in major international competition. Since then, there have been five Olympics, eight World Championships, and six Pan Pacific Championships, and the US men have won gold in this event in all of them. To put it another way, six of the eight men I picked to final this event were not even born yet the last time the US failed to win gold. The oldest likely finalist, Ryan Lochte, had just turned ten, and was probably watching Mighty Morphin Power Rangers (which debuted the year before).
You could easily argue that this has been the US men’s most dominant event, and given the glut of talent, it doesn’t seem likely that this is going to change any time soon. The 200 back should be one of the most exciting finals to watch at Nationals, and while I think the top contenders are pretty clear, there’s a very good chance it’ll come down to the final touch.
Ryan Lochte, along with Michael Phelps, has been the face of US men’s swimming for years. (Incidentally, as if the US wasn’t dominant enough in this event already, Phelps probably could’ve picked up some gold if he’d focused on it all). Lochte has one Olympic gold, three World Championship golds, and one Pan Pacific gold in this event, with a few more minor medals, and was at one point the world record holder. Personally, I had my doubts that he was going to swim this after his knee injury last fall, as I thought he might choose to forgo it and focus on the 200 IM, where is the current world record holder, and the 100/200 free, and 100 fly, which gives him more relay possibilities. But, after he threw down the top time in the US in the 200 IM at the Bulldog Grand Slam meet a few weeks ago, it seems that his knee is fine, and I’m expecting him to give it a shot, and easily finish in the top three.
Next up is reigning Olympic champion Tyler Clary. He has to be a bit of a masochist, as he swims the three events that are generally regarded as the most excruciating: 200 fly, 200 back, and 400 IM (the question of exactly which one is the hardest race would make for a great SwimSwam reader’s poll…just a thought). He and Lochte have dominated this event in the US for the past few years now, and he doesn’t seem to be showing any signs of slowing down. However, he has expressed his desire to get a spot on the 4×200 free relay, and it’s hard to say what effect, if any, swimming the 200 free the same session as the 200 back will have on him, especially with the rest of field being a bunch of youngsters who are hungry for a spot on a major international team.
Speaking of youngsters, this year the NCAA Division I championship, California freshman Ryan Murphy broke the NCAA 200 yard backstroke record previously held by….wait for it…Tyler Clary and Ryan Lochte, and he seems poised to be their heir apparent in this event. He finished third behind those two at Nationals last year, but with his dominance at NCAA championships, this could very well be the year that Murphy takes the national title in long course. While it’s hard to bet against the reigning Olympic and Worlds champions in this event, Murphy has the advantage of this event probably being the first one he swims and it being his main focus, along with the 100 back. For Clary and Lochte, this will just be another swim in the middle of a grueling schedule.
It’s hard to say that Jack Conger had a disappointing NCAA Championship this year, as he made the A-final in all three individual events in swam in. Yet, when compared to fellow freshman Murphy’s two individual championships, and when you consider that Conger only swam a personal best in the 100 fly — not the 500 free or 200 back — you can see how that meet may not have been quite as great as Conger might have hoped. And given that, and his fifth-place finish in this event at Nationals last year, it’s tempting to write him off from this event. But, until I looked up FINA’s all-time rankings in this event, I’d forgotten that Conger went 1:55.47 in this event at the World University Games last summer, which is faster than Murphy or Pebley have ever gone, and puts him as the 14th fastest swimmer all time. Conger arguably has more versatility than those two, which is good and bad, the downside arguably being that Conger’s not sure what his focus in. He had a great 200 free time at the Potomac Valley Senior Champs a couple weeks ago, and like Lochte and Clary, he could try to swim the 200 free for a relay spot, which could affect his performance in this event. (By the way, is there anyone who is blocked in more events by Lochte and Phelps than Conger? His schedule could very well be 100 free, 200 free, 200 back, and 100 fly, and it wasn’t for those two, it seems like he’d be a lock to make the squad in something).
Murphy’s training partner with the Golden Bears, rising junior Jacob Pebley, is the final no-brainer pick for the A-final. He has the 16th fastest time in the world so far this year, second in the US behind Murphy, and it’s hard to count him out. He currently has the second-fastest time in the US this year behind Murphy. Lochte and Clary seem to be swimming very well, so for at least for one more year, experience may trump youth, and Pebley may be locked out of a spot on the main team, but it could very easily be two Cal Bears representing the US in this event at Rio in two years.
After those five, competition for the other three spots in the A-final is going to be tight. Last summer, it took a 1:59.58 to make the A-final, and there have already been six swimmers under that so far this season, including Murphy, Pebley, Clary, and Lochte. Bluefish’s Connor Green, finished 11th at Nationals last summer, but has already been 1:59.26 this year, a lifetime best. Carter Griffin swam this event at the US Olympic Trials and 2012 Speedo Junior National Championships, and clocked at 2:00.42 last summer at the Speedo Western Sectional meet, but didn’t swim at National Championships last summer. This summer he swam a 1:59.39 at that same meet.
Two national team stalwarts in the 100 back —Matt Grevers and Nick Thoman — have swam this event before, taking 1st and 3rd, respectively, at the 2011 US National Championships, but neither seem to be taking this too seriously. Grevers will probably be swimming the 50 fly, like he did last summer, and Thoman is coming off an injury, so I’m not expecting either one to swim this, but they could give it a shot in preliminaries and see what happens.
Drew DeTuits is always a contender in this event, in both the yards and long course versions, and will probably make the A-final. He finished sixth at Nationals last summer and third at the US Open. David Nolan swam this event at NCAA this year, finishing third behind Murphy and Eric Ress. Last summer he skipped this event in favor of the 200 free, but should he choose to swim it this year, he should be right in the mix for the A-final. Teenagers Alexander Katz and Sean Lehane both made the A-final at Nationals last year; Katz has only been 2:11 this season, while Lehane has been 2:01.75. Penn State Nate Savoy finished 9th overall last summer and could find himself in the final with a breakthrough swim in the preliminaries. Texas’s Kip Darmody finished seventh at the 2013 US Open and sixth at the 2014 NCAA’s, out swimming his teammate Conger. Brock Turner, of the Dayton Raiders, threw down a 2:01.08 back in March, and with a strong taper, he should be right in there. A few other names to watch include Virginia’s Luke Papendick (sixth at US Open last year, 2:02.96 so far this season), Denver Swim Academy’s Hennessey Stuart (1:59.95 this season), Metro Aquatic of Miami’s Carlos Omana, Georgia Tynan Stewart, and Aquazot’s Corey Okubo.
But in the end, it comes down to the first five names we mentioned. Assuming all five of them swim this event, I’d be fairly surprised if anyone else cracks the top five, and it’s quite possible that any of the five could win, and any of them could medal in international competition this summer, if they get the chance. I’m going to pick Ryan Murphy for the win. He had a historic NCAA meet, has the fastest time in the country this year, and this event is probably his main focus.
PREDICTIONS
- Ryan Murphy (Cal)
- Ryan Lochte (SwimMAC)
- Tyler Clary (SwimMAC)
- Jack Conger (Texas/Machine)
- Jacob Pebley (Cal)
- David Nolan (Stanford)
- Drew Teduits (Wisconsin)
- Connor Green (Bluefish)
All these things are very nice, but the chinese team will be clearly the number one in the world very soon. Just see Nanjing this month and Asian Games next month. When I look at the poor results of Australia and americans in 100 free ( only old guys , with the exception of Stubblefield, reach the ‘A” final), I realize that even in 4×100 F China will be a strong candidate for gold in 2016. I am really sorry for the West, but that is life. 200 backstroke? Jiayu Xu will teach a good lesson for the americans, but I respect the japanese Irie, an incredible talent indeed.
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As Mr. Gibbs eloquently points out:
Since 1994, 5 Olympics.
USA: 5 golds, but also 3 silvers and a bronze. 3 clean sweeps, a 1-3 finish, and 2004 when Phelps scratched, but American-trained Austrian Markus Rogan picked up silver.
Since 1994, 8 World Championships.
USA: 8 golds, a silver and 4 bronzes (doubling up on the podium more often than not). If you counted Rogan again, it would be 8 golds, 3 silvers, and 5 bronzes.
Since 1994, 6 Pan Pacs
USA: 6 golds, 3 silvers and a bronze.
If Irie or Hagino can knock these guys off the mountain, it will be a huge feat!
As good as some of the younger swimmers are, I have yet to see anyone break out a “next level” swim. There might be a couple that could follow in the shoes of Ryan Lochte, but no one is even close to Phelps’ level. Adding in guys like Anthony Ervin, Tyler Clary, and even Nathan Adrian (who at 25 is no longer a young gun) you see that elite swimming comes with age on the male side.
And that’s not to discount the under-21 crowd….I just think we are beginning to rethink when you really peak in the pool.
I wanted Phelps and Lochte to retire after London badly, so that youngsters get chance, Murphy and Conger in particular. Clary will always be a factor especially after that beautiful race in London.
As a huge Longhorn fan, I was disappointed with Conger’s performance in NCAAs (I am sure he was too, since I think just getting into A final was never his primary goal). But, the way Murphy swam 200 back at NCAAs with a 100 back tempo, Conger was never a factor. His tempo was too slow and his backstroke underwaters are underwhelming. Hopefully he worked on that this summer, and I know he can be better since his fly underwaters are so good.
Anyway, I will be… Read more »
Conger has looked less and less like a backstroker the past year. It might even be his third best stroke at this point. I’m a tiny bit surprised he didn’t try the 200 fly, though the 100 free is less tiring and there’s always a chance at a relay spot.
I still think Lochte will dominate, Clary looked great in 200 fly so idk if Murphy will be able to beat them.