Diving into the Initial Olympic Swimming Entries: How Did Athletes Qualify?

2024 PARIS SUMMER OLYMPIC GAMES

Sophie Kaufman contributed to this report.

Initial entries for the Olympic (pool) swimming events have been released, which means it’s time to analyze. And it’s easy this time!

Over on Instagram, Swimming Stats has already started breaking down the number of entries per event:

Now, we’re going a step further to dig into how athletes qualified for those events. Earlier this year, World Aquatics warned that the athlete quota might result in B cuts not earning qualification.

In the end, there were 37 entries from B cuts, over eight times fewer than the number of universality entrants (304), which in turn is just under half the number of entries that qualified outright with an A cut (609).

The number of universality entrants tapers off dramatically as the distance increases. The women’s 50 freestyle has the highest number with 55, compared to only 24 athletes under the A cut of 24.70. The women’s 50 is also tied for the event with the most entries; the other one is the men’s 100 free with 79 entries.

For nations only sending swimmers under the universality rules, it makes sense that they’d gravitate towards the shorter freestyle races.

On the other end of the spectrum, the most technically complex race (the 400 IM, which requires ability in all four strokes) has no universality entrants across both the men’s and women’s events. Barring scratches, only 16 men and 16 women will race the 400 IM in Paris. That’s the lowest number of entries across all events.

Four of the five least-entered events are 400 meters or greater, meaning it’s unlikely we’ll see a similar situation to Tokyo where everyone who swam the prelims of the women’s 200 butterfly earned a second swim. There are still only 19 entrants in the women’s 200 fly, the fewest of the events with semifinals, but that’s two more than were on the psych sheets three years ago.

Unsurprisingly, the U.S. leads the way with the maximum 56 individual entries. Australia is close behind, with 53 entries. The Aussies are just missing second entrants in the men’s 200 fly, men’s 1500, and women’s 100 breast.

The U.S. also has the most top seeds across all events (8), as well as the most in women’s events. For the men’s events, Chinese swimmers have the most top seeds with four.

Top Seed (Men) Top Seed (Women) Total
USA 1500 Free, 100 Back 800 Free, 1500 Free, 100 Back, 200 Breast, 100 Fly, 200 IM 8
Australia 50 Free, 800 Free 200 Free, 400 Free, 200 Back 5
China 100 Free, 100 Breast, 200 Breast, 200 IM 100 Breast 5
Canada 100 Fly 200 Fly, 400 IM 3
France 200 Fly, 400 IM 2
Germany 400 Free 1
Hong Kong 100 Free 1
Hungary 200 Back 1
Romania 200 Free 1
Sweden 50 Free 1

If races were won on psych sheets, the U.S. would walk away from Paris atop the medal table after the individual events. But it’s not as simple as that.

Soon, the Olympics kick off, and we’ll have our answers. For now, we’ll have to be content with speculation.

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Jonathan
25 minutes ago

Why is there such a massive discrepancy between the number of entrants for the women’s (29) vs men’s (79) 100 freestyle?

Tracy Kosinski
42 minutes ago

Hahahaha, every female and male qualify for the 400 IM semis/finals.

Last edited 40 minutes ago by Tracy Kosinski
Bo Swims
Reply to  Tracy Kosinski
37 minutes ago

Haha 400+ don’t have semifinals.

Andrew
1 hour ago

How did Destin Lasco, Gabe Jett, and Trenton Julian qualify? Oh wait

Weinstein-Smith-Ledecky-Sims
1 hour ago

Will ten lanes be utilized for the heats?

RealSlimThomas
Reply to  Weinstein-Smith-Ledecky-Sims
22 seconds ago

I don’t think you’re eligible for records when there are ten lanes. Someone mentioned this in a comment during US Team Trials.

Swim Observer
1 hour ago

37 entries from B cuts… This number included ‘B’ entries from swimmers who already they have other ‘A’ qualification (e.g. MSH added 400 free, two Hong Kong swimmers added 1 event each).
Do we have stats of how many swimmers actually got invited as B cut swimmer?

Brigi
4 hours ago

Who is the top seed in women 200 fly? Because that’s missing from the list. Regan Smith or Summer?

super classy swim
Reply to  Brigi
3 hours ago

summer is

Bo Swims
Reply to  Brigi
42 minutes ago

World Aquatics has a qualification ranking page. Times done at non designated meets can’t be used as seed times.

MIKE IN DALLAS
4 hours ago

I don’t know if the term “affirmative action” is applicable when it comes to Olympic swimming, but WHY (I think I know already) not give swimming slots to competent men and women who have decent times, i.e., “B” cuts? Rather, these are tossed out to swimmers who — frankly — seem to be motivated as much by the “vanity moment” of appearing in the Olympics rather than actually GROWING the the sport in their respective countries. I would LOVE for someone to do a study of how these “wasted” slots – over time — really grow the sport, or not. . . .

Admin
Reply to  MIKE IN DALLAS
3 hours ago

The real answer is that it keeps administrators from those countries engaged and gives them an excuse to go to the Olympics. Remember that every country in swimming gets a vote.

I think universality programs are great, and IMO the investments World Aquatics is making to grow the sport around the world is probably the best thing they’ve done – now or ever.

I do think there should be a cap of some kind. Like maybe there are only 200 Universality spots before you go to B times, and the other ~150 countries that don’t have qualifying swimmers contend for those 200 spots. I would think about how to add a caveat that if your best swimmer has a “B”… Read more »

Adrian
Reply to  Braden Keith
1 hour ago

Also many of the 37 B cuts entries are either universality athletes (higher priority than B cut, like Morales (PUR), A cut athletes or originally from relay-only (e.g., Reitshammer (AUT). I think there are only 4 truly B cuts invited athletes, that gets to Paris as a priority four quota. They should be Saka (TUR) (200 IM), Gan (SGP) (1500), and Vall (200 breast), Cabanes (200 fly), both from ESP. World Aquatics also seem to have prioritized inviting B cuts athletes in events that have less entrants, not according to the highest WA points swims which was on the original plan.

Last edited 1 hour ago by Adrian
Admin
Reply to  Adrian
1 hour ago

Relay only swimmers don’t get B cut bonus swims. We asked that.

Adrian
Reply to  Braden Keith
1 hour ago

I mean for Reitshammer (AUT) and Kalusowski (POL), they were announced as relay-only athletes at first by their federations, to swim the breast leg for their country’s medley relay. So they are entered at a higher priority. Then World Aquatics invited them to swim their B cuts, I presume because of the lack of entrants in men’s breast events. So they aren’t bonus events per say.

Bo Swims
Reply to  Braden Keith
41 minutes ago

This. Capping it at 200 and having a universality trials & staging camp.

YES
Reply to  MIKE IN DALLAS
1 hour ago

I still think we need to scrutinize the definition of a “Universality” athlete. Some are truly representative of their country, but many others have linked back or joined a particular country for the sole purpose of swimming in the Olympics. The country has no idea who they are, many having never even been to the country. That’s not growing the sport at that point.

Snarky
4 hours ago

It’s sad that the Olympic Games only has room for two heats of 400 IMs for men and women… Nice job with the A cuts WA.